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Ottawa Senators forward Brady Tkachuk – (Jess Starr/The Hockey Writers)

5 Games Canadiens Must Win to Keep 2025 Playoff Hopes Alive

Originally posted on The Hockey Writers | By Ryan Szporer | Last updated Feb 25, 2025 8:25 AM ET

Even just one Montreal Canadiens win can make a huge difference, from an optics perspective. After going 1-7-1 just immediately prior to the 4 Nations Face-Off break, the Montreal Canadiens free fell down the standings to the point a playoff spot once again must have felt like a pipe dream.

From Dec. 3 to Jan. 21, the Canadiens went 16-6-1, to jump from last place in the Eastern Conference into a wild-card spot on several occasions. However, consider how, on Dec. 2, the Canadiens had been eight points out with one game in hand. Prior to the regular-season schedule resuming this past weekend, they were six points back, with the wild-card Detroit Red Wings holding a game in hand themselves. So, for all their hard work, they had virtually nothing to show for it.

Then, the Canadiens returned to action this past Saturday night, decisively beating the host Ottawa Senators (albeit without an injured Brady Tkachuk) 5-2. It was effectively a four-point win, the Sens dropping into that second wild-card spot, with now just five points separating the Habs from a return to the postseason for the first time since their run to the 2021 Stanley Cup Final.

Defenseman Kaiden Guhle remains injured, significantly weakening the defense. However, Emil Heineman’s long-awaited return against the Sens should help solidify the Canadiens’ forward ranks, providing some semblance of hope… Kirby Dach admittedly having sustained a lower-body injury at the time this is being written. If this is the start of another run, who knows for sure what the future holds, with the Canadiens realistically needing another 34 points over their last 25 games (68.0 points percentage) to get to the 91 the Washington Capitals earned to just sneak in, last season.

One thing is for sure: There is close to zero margin for error, the five following games, ranked in chronological order, representing as close to must-win contests as possible:

Ottawa Senators: March 18 at home and April 11 on the road

The Canadiens face the Senators two more times this season, and, while they’re 2-0 against them so far, with fairly decisive victories under their belt, they’re obviously an opponent the Habs can ill afford to take for granted. For starters, they can’t always count on Tkachuk, who has 27 points in 29 career games against them, being injured. And the Habs had gone winless against the Sens (0-6-1) over the last few seasons heading into 2024-25.

So, it would be foolhardy for a number of reasons to take them lightly, especially with so much on the line in terms of their hypothetical playoff hopes. The Sens are the team they need to catch. As good as this last victory felt, with so much further left to go it would likely feel worse to lose even more ground to them.

Boston Bruins: April 3 at home

Even if the Boston Bruins are a team in sharp decline, following their record-setting 2022-23 season, they’re still a team above the Canadiens in the standings. They’re currently one point behind the Senators with one more game played (58), representing a legitimate risk to sneak into the postseason. So, while Montreal fans cheered for Team Canada’s Brad Marchand during the 4 Nations Face-Off, they can resume their regularly scheduled programming of booing the bejesus out of him moving forward.

Detroit Red Wings: April 8 at home

The Red Wings currently occupy the first wild-card spot, two points up on the Senators and seven up on the Canadiens. While potentially overtaking the Wings in the standings must admittedly seem daunting, a few things to consider: The Habs impressively dispatched them in a home-and-home series on back-to-back nights in December as part of their impressive 1.5 month-long stretch.

Also, those losses in large part led to the dismissal of then-head coach Derek Lalonde on Dec. 26. Under his replacement, Todd McLellan, the Wings have gone 16-5-2, effectively replicating the Canadiens’ ascent up the standings. On Dec. 2, before the Canadiens’ run, the Wings had four more points than them in the standings. On Dec. 26, when Lalonde got let go, the Habs were above the Wings by a point. On Jan. 22, that lead had grown to five.

So, while the wilds swings in points differences between the two teams are something to behold, they’re also evidence of the propensity for things to changes drastically in a matter of weeks. The Canadiens know that all too well, based on the turn for the worse their season took at the end of January into February. The reverse can be true as well. That’s something onto which they need to hold as being possible for a playoff berth to stay within reach.

Carolina Hurricanes: April 16 at home

One common thread tying the previously listed opponents together is the fact they’re all in the Atlantic Division with the Canadiens as rivals of the Habs to varying degrees. That trend stops now with the Metropolitan’s Carolina Hurricanes, not because of any recent playoff history (although the defeats in 2002 and 2006 were pretty hard to take). The Hurricanes simply represent the Canadiens’ last opponents of the season.

Ultimately, so high above them in the standings are the Hurricanes that the Canadiens don’t need to realistically worry about them beating them out for one of the two wild-card spots. However, let’s be real, here: While there’s a chance this final game of the season ends up meaning nothing for both sides for all intents and purposes, based on where the Habs are in the standings it won’t be because they’ll have clinched a berth before then. As previously mentioned, the Habs need 34 more out of a possible 50 points (at the very least). Realistically this thing comes down to the wire (if they’re lucky enough to stay alive in mathematical contention up to that point). So, strap in.