A deep dive into the Minnesota Wild's salary-cap situation

Navigating the salary cap is one of the more important tasks for any GM.  Teams that can avoid total cap chaos by walking the tightrope of inking players to deals that match their value (or compensate for future value without breaking the bank) remain successful. Those that don’t see struggles and front office changes.

PHR will look at every NHL team and give a thorough look at their cap situation heading for the 2021-22 season and beyond. This will focus more on players who are regulars on the roster versus those who may find themselves shuttling between the AHL and NHL. All cap figures are courtesy of CapFriendly.

Minnesota Wild 

Current Cap Hit: $78,453,086 (under the $81.5M Upper Limit)

Entry-Level Contracts

Minnesota has some players who could see time with them at some point this season in Matt Boldy (two years, $881K) and Marco Rossi (three years, $894K) but neither figure to play prominent roles or reach their Class A bonuses.

One Year Remaining, Non-Entry-Level

D Jordie Benn ($900K, UFA)
F Nick Bjugstad ($900K, UFA)
F Kevin Fiala ($5.1M, RFA)
D Alex Goligoski ($5M, UFA)
F Jordan Greenway ($2.1M, RFA)
G Kaapo Kahkonen ($725K, RFA)
D Jon Merrill ($850K, UFA)
F Rem Pitlick ($918K, RFA)
F Victor Rask ($4M, UFA)
F Nico Sturm ($725K, UFA)

The decision the Wild made to take Fiala to arbitration was a bit of a curious one. While it ensured he’d be with the team for training camp, it also gave him the opportunity to elect a two-year term that would walk him right to UFA eligibility. That didn’t happen, as they settled on this one-year pact which still gives Fiala the right to opt for arbitration next summer and take another one-year deal. It also gives Minnesota one more opportunity to try to lock him up long term, but with the dead cap money they have on the books for the next few years, fitting it in could be tricky. This situation will be one to monitor.

Rask’s contract is finally set to come off the books after being acquired in a trade two years ago that hasn’t worked out well at all. As someone who is better suited for a very limited role now, he may have to settle for a quarter of his current rate next summer. Greenway’s bridge deal gave the Wild some extra short-term flexibility and a chance to evaluate his potential for being a long-term fixture. He has shown some improvement, but he hasn’t quite established himself as a top-six piece, either. A one-year deal that keeps him RFA-eligible next summer may be in Minnesota’s best interest.  Bjugstad, Pitlick and Sturm are all role players that will need to be willing to sign for similar low-cost rates to stick around.

Goligoski decided to sign with his hometown team in the offseason, taking a higher one-year deal over a multi-year pact that carried some longer-term security. He’s more of a fourth or fifth option at this stage of his career and could be looking at something closer to the $3M mark next summer. Benn and Merrill are both depth defenders that didn’t have a lot of interest in free agency this year – it took a month for Benn to get this deal – and similar contracts are likely unless one of them plays their way into a bigger role.

Kahkonen has settled in as the backup but barring something unexpected, his experience in terms of NHL appearances is going to be limited, likely somewhere in the range of 55 career games. That’s not going to help his case in arbitration. He has two years of team control remaining, so he either takes a one-year deal (likely in the $2M range) or a multi-year pact closer to $3M, but the latter may be tough to afford.

Two Years Remaining

F Brandon Duhaime ($750K, RFA)
D Mathew Dumba ($6MM, UFA)
F Frederick Gaudreau ($1.2M, UFA)
D Dmitry Kulikov ($2.25M, UFA)
G Cam Talbot ($3.667M, UFA)

Gaudreau has largely been in the minors in his career, but a good showing in limited action with Pittsburgh took him from a two-way deal to two years at seven figures. He’ll need to lock down a regular role in each season to land that contract in 2023. So far, so good on that front. Duhaime earned the final spot on the roster in training camp and he has done well on the fourth line. He’ll get a small raise on his next deal with the next increase in the NHL minimum salary and could get a bit more than that if he can stick with the Wild and not be shuffled down to Iowa.

Dumba’s future is about as secure as it has been for a while as gone are the days that had him in frequent trade speculation. He’s one of their top blueliners and will only be 29 when his deal is up so a max-term contract or close to it shouldn’t be off the table. He should come in a tier below some of the big deals handed out this past summer, but something that pushes the AAV near the $8M range certainly seems doable at this point. Kulikov makes a bit much for the spot on the third pairing he currently occupies, but if he can hold his own in the top four when injuries arise, they’ll get an okay return on this deal.

Talbot is well below the median salary for starters but did well in that role last season. Even so, it’s hard to forecast a guaranteed raise for him since he’ll be 36 on his next deal and may be better off with one-year deals with incentives that could push the total compensation around the $4M mark; those aren’t available on multi-year pacts for 35-plus players.

Three Years Remaining

F Marcus Foligno ($3.1M, UFA)
F Ryan Hartman ($1.7M, UFA)
F Mats Zuccarello ($6M, UFA)

Zuccarello had a quiet first season but was certainly better in 2020-21, producing at a level that’s close to the top line, which is what he’s being paid to do. He’ll turn 37 for his next contract and is another candidate to do a one-year, incentive-laden deal at that time, especially if his production drops off towards the end of the contract. Foligno’s contract seemed a little high when it was signed back in January but with how the UFA market went over the summer, it’s a market-value contract. Whether or not he can stay healthy will go a long way towards what his next deal will be, as staying in the lineup has been an issue and the style he plays doesn’t always age well. Hartman has been able to work his way up the depth chart compared to where he was in his previous stop, and a middle-six winger signed for $1.7M for three years is pretty good value, although he’ll need to step up his production past the 20-point mark to have a shot at landing a much pricier deal in 2024.

Four Or More Years Remaining

D Jonas Brodin ($6M through 2027-28)
F Joel Eriksson Ek ($5.25M through 2028-29)
F Kirill Kaprizov ($9M through 2025-26)
D Jared Spurgeon ($7.575M through 2026-27)

Kaprizov’s contract took a long time to get done even though the money and term had been expected for a while. It’s a player-friendly pact that gives him a shot at a potentially higher contract on a near max-term deal if he can establish himself as a high-end scorer for more than an abbreviated season. If he gets to that level, Minnesota could get some surplus value here, but the contract favors the player more than the team. Eriksson Ek’s price tag stands out considering his career high in points is 30, but he is indisputably the Wild’s top center and that career best in points was last season. There’s still some offensive upside and with the role he plays, he doesn’t have to light up the scoresheet for the contract to be justified. Even if he can get to 40 points consistently, it’s a fair market contract.  Anything more offensively and the team will be loving the bargain.

Spurgeon hasn’t been getting number one minutes the last couple of years, which hurts the value here a little bit as he isn’t a significant offensive threat. Right now, it might be just a small overpayment, but that could change as he ages. Meanwhile, GM Bill Guerin may want to use this as the benchmark for Dumba’s contract, but that could be a tough sell. Brodin did well on this contract, considering he’s primarily a shutdown blueliner that chips in with 20 points or so each year. The price tag for a third defender is reasonable based on the role, but this is another contract that could look a bit pricey down the road.

Buyouts

F Zach Parise
D Ryan Suter

Both players have identical costs – $2.372M this season, $6.372M in 2022-23, $7.372M in 2023-24 and 2024-25 and $833K from 2025-26 through 2028-29.

Retained Salary Transactions

None

Best Value: Eriksson Ek
Worst Value: Rask

Looking Ahead

Guerin better enjoy the flexibility he has this season as it’s about to go away in a hurry with $12.7M in dead cap space on the books next season and $14.7M for two years after that. They will basically be trying to put together a competitive roster with an actual roster payroll that will be closer to the Lower Limit than the Upper Limit. Tough decisions will soon need to be made as a result. In the meantime, if Minnesota looks to add this season, it will almost assuredly have to be someone on an expiring contract. It’s a new look and new dynamic for the Wild, but the costs of that change are about to really be felt starting next season.