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A (Mostly) Levelheaded Look at the Panthers’ Trade for Seth Jones
Seth Jones, Columbus Blue Jackets (Amy Irvin / The Hockey Writers)

Amid swirling trade rumors that pervade nearly every corner of NHL coverage this time of year, Florida Panthers’ general manager (GM) Bill Zito has yet again swung for the fences. The Panthers have dealt former future starter Spencer Knight and a conditional 2026 first-round pick to the Chicago Blackhawks in exchange for a fourth-round pick in 2026 and Seth Jones, with the Blackhawks retaining roughly 25% of Jones’ $9.5 million average annual value (AAV) salary.

This trade is already a bit polarizing for many, many reasons. Is this another Sam Reinhart-esque deal? Is it more along the lines of the Sam Bennett acquisition? Or, more concerningly, is this just the Ben Chiarot deal all over again? The real answer is likely somewhere in the middle of all of these scenarios. Let’s break it down.

The Player

Jones was drafted fourth overall by the Nashville Predators in the 2013 NHL Entry Draft. He made the jump right into the NHL and quickly established himself as a strong two-way defenseman. Midway through his third season with the Predators (and in the final year of his entry-level contract), he was traded to the Columbus Blue Jackets at the ripe old age of 21. At the time, he had scored 63 points in 199 games played in the NHL.

Jones would go on to sign a long-term six-year deal worth $5.4 million per year with the Blue Jackets, in which he would blossom into a legitimate top-four two-way defenseman. Between 2016 and 2020, he garnered votes for both the James Norris Memorial Trophy awarded to the league’s best all-around defenseman, as well as votes for the annual All-Star Game.

Jones is also no stranger to the NHL playoffs, having visited the postseason in 2014-15 with the Predators, and then again from 2016-2020 with the Blue Jackets.

After a long tenure with the Blue Jackets, Jones was traded yet again – this time to the Blackhawks alongside Tampa Bay’s first-round pick in the 2021 NHL Entry Draft and a sixth-round pick. Five days later, he signed an eight-year, $9.5 million AAV long-term deal with the Blackhawks. This contract has admittedly been a bit lopsided, but Jones has remained relatively solid throughout.

A few weeks ago, it was reported that Jones had formally requested a trade out of the Blackhawks’ organization, spurred on by the Blackhawks’ continued regular season struggles. On March 1, Blackhawks’ GM Kyle Davidson granted his request and dealt him to the Panthers.

The Details

There are two sides to every coin, right? On the face of it, losing an up-and-coming goaltender – especially when you don’t have much depth in that position – seems bad. I’m not going to sugarcoat that part of it; it absolutely is. It isn’t quite time to ring the alarm bells, but I would be lying if I said that I’m not at least a little bit concerned.

For starters, Sergei Bobrovsky is 36 years old and is by no means a workhorse. Bob played a pivotal role in the Panthers’ first Stanley Cup win, and is far and away the best choice for starter on a consistent basis, despite a bit of streakiness here and there. This, however, will not last forever.

While the proverbial coffers aren’t bone-dry as of yet, the Panthers have traded away a significant number of high-value picks in the past few years, and almost as many prospects. Coupled with the already thinned-out ranks of netminders in the Panthers’ system, this move in particular could create quite the hangover in the coming years.

At the end of the day, the cost for this trade was just way, way too high. A hole on defense is now competently filled, as Jones has been incredibly solid on much worse teams than the Panthers. On the other side of that coin, though, is a glaring hole in the goaltending department – barring another move that may yet be made.

The Future

At any rate, having the Blackhawks retain $2.5 million per season on Jones’ deal makes the trade a bit more palatable. $7 million per season for the next five seasons isn’t terrible, all things considered. Dig a bit deeper into that line of thinking, though, and you can potentially turn up some not-so-shiny nuggets of wisdom.

At that price, the Panthers could’ve just kept Brandon Montour and avoided having a hole to fill at the blue line altogether. Granted, he has two more years on his deal than Jones, which may have been a factor in negotiations between Zito and the former fan favorite.

The issue yet again returns to the sheer cost the Cats paid for Jones. Getting him in red and gold for $2.5 million per season cheaper is good, but is it enough – especially considering the added value of the first-round pick headed to Chicago? The Panthers have several very solid prospects in the system. Up front, they have guys like Justin Sourdif, Gracyn Sawchyn, Jack Devine, and Hunter St. Martin nearing a possible NHL breakthrough. On the blue line, Mike Benning and Mikulas Hovorka have shown promise.

The situation in the crease is far more dire. As of the writing of this article, the Panthers only have three goalies under contract: Bobrovsky, Chris Driedger, and Cooper Black. Black himself is a bright spot that could easily develop into the Cats’ goalie of the future, but he is nowhere near as close to being a sure thing as Knight.

All of this taken into consideration, Zito has done more than enough to earn the trust of the fanbase. His decisions have led directly to not just a Stanley Cup win, but a real chance at defending that win and keeping the Cup in Sunrise. As high as the cost is, and as lopsided as the trade might seem, Jones is sure to flourish in the defensive system Paul Maurice has perfected at the Panthers’ helm.

Looking forward, this trade does answer some questions. The questions left unanswered, though, are sure to start begging for answers before long. Rest assured, though, that if anyone has the answers to them, it’s Zito.

This article first appeared on The Hockey Writers and was syndicated with permission.

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