A Somewhat Surprising Look at Some Montreal Canadiens Statistics

By comparison, after 57 games last season, Montreal’s record was 26-26- 5, an average of exactly 1.00 points per game.1.00 point per match. Although the team enjoyed a strong second half and finished the season with 91 points (1.11 points per game), this year’s pace represents a significant improvement.

However, wins and losses do not tell the complete story. Through 57 games this season, Montreal has scored 202 goals while allowing 184. At the same point last year, the Canadiens had scored 168 goals and conceded 196. This represents a dramatic turnaround in goal differential.

A Deeper Analysis

A deeper analysis shows that Montreal’s offence has improved by 20.2 per cent compared to last season, while its defence has improved by 6.1 per cent in terms of goals allowed.

Montreal’s goaltending has faced considerable criticism this season. While there have been games in which soft goals proved costly, the overall numbers suggest goaltending has not hurt the team as much as some perceive.

In fact, when examining shots on goal, a surprising pattern emerges. This season, Montreal has been outshot 1,559 to 1,496. Despite that, the Canadiens hold a higher shooting percentage — 13.5 per cent compared to 11.8 per cent for their opponents. Montreal has outshot its opponents in only 23 of 57 games (40.3 per cent), yet it continues to win consistently.

Taken together, these statistics suggest that efficiency — particularly in finishing chances — has played a key role in Montreal’s success this season.

How Many Goals Does a Win Require?

An old hockey adage suggests that scoring more than three goals usually leads to victory. Scoring three can yield mixed results, while scoring fewer than three often results in defeat. This season, Montreal is averaging 3.54 goals per game while allowing 3.23 — numbers that support the idea that offence has been a key driver of success.

A closer look at the breakdown by goals scored further reinforces that point:

• Five or more goals (12 games):
  Montreal’s highest single-game total was seven goals. The Canadiens lost only once when scoring five or more, giving them a remarkable 91.7 per cent win rate in those games.
• Four goals (19 games):
  The team lost five contests, although three of the losses came in overtime, still earning a point. When scoring four goals, Montreal wins 73.7 per cent of the time.
• Three goals (13 games):
  The Canadiens lost eight of these games, with four defeats coming in overtime. When limited to three goals, Montreal wins just 38.5 per cent of the time — clearly illustrating how thin the margin becomes at that threshold.
• One or two goals (10 games):
  Montreal lost eight of these games, including one overtime loss. Low-scoring nights have almost always resulted in defeat.
• Shutouts (3 games):
  In games where Montreal failed to score, losses were inevitable.

The Obvious Pattern

The numbers strongly support the adage. When Montreal scores four or more goals, it is highly likely to win. At three goals, the results become unpredictable. Below that mark, the odds shift dramatically toward defeat.

Simply put, for this team, four goals appear to be the true benchmark for consistent success.

Are Montreal’s Second Periods as Bad as They Are Perceived to Be?

There has been a growing perception that Montreal struggles in the second period. But do the numbers support that claim?

First Period: A Strong Start

Montreal has actually controlled play early in games. The team has outshot its opponents 478 to 471 and outscored them 56 to 48 in the first period. That suggests the Canadiens start well, both territorially and on the scoreboard.

Second Period: The Trouble Spot?

In the second period, the numbers shift slightly. Opponents have outshot Montreal 523 to 514 and outscored them 71 to 63.

While this is clearly Montreal’s weakest period statistically, the margins are not overwhelming. The shot differential is modest (a minus-9 gap), and the eight-goal deficit, while notable, is not dramatic over the course of 57 games. The perception of a severe second-period collapse may therefore be exaggerated, though this is the team’s most vulnerable stretch.

Third Period: Opportunistic and Efficient

The third period presents an interesting contrast. Montreal has been significantly outshot, 523 to 457, yet has outscored its opponents 71 to 56.

The key lies in efficiency. Montreal’s third-period shooting percentage stands at an impressive 15.6 per cent, compared to 10.7 per cent for its opponents. Despite spending more time defending, the Canadiens have capitalized on their opportunities at a much higher rate.

Final Assessment

Is the second period a weakness? Statistically, yes — it is Montreal’s least effective period in terms of both goals and shot differential. Is it as disastrous as it is sometimes portrayed? Not quite.

Overall, Montreal starts games well, struggles somewhat in the middle frame, and finishes with remarkable scoring efficiency. The larger concern may not be the second period alone, but the consistent shot deficit — particularly in the third — that the team has overcome through timely finishing.

Head-to-Head

There are 31 other teams in the league, and Montreal has yet to face three of them this season — Anaheim, the Islanders, and San Jose.

Of the teams they have played, there are six against whom Montreal has not secured at least one victory. However, among the remaining 22 opponents, the Canadiens hold the head-to-head advantage over all but one: Boston.

Aside from Boston, Montreal has either split the season series or posted a winning record against nearly every team it has faced. That level of consistency across opponents helps explain the club’s powerful position in the standings and suggests that its success is not the result of beating up on only a handful of weaker teams.

Overall, Montreal has proven competitive against the vast majority of the league — an encouraging sign as the season progresses and playoff positioning becomes increasingly important.

Have the Preseason Pundits’ Predictions Been Borne Out so Far?

Before the season began, many analysts questioned whether the Montreal Canadiens would qualify for the playoffs. Others predicted modest improvement but stopped short of forecasting a breakthrough. So far, those projections appear to have missed the mark.

Barring a significant collapse, it seems highly unlikely. The Canadiens have positioned themselves firmly in the playoff picture, and their current points pace suggests they are not merely clinging to contention but comfortably competing near the top of the standings.

All signs point to yes. Based on their performance to date, Montreal is on track to surpass last year’s total with room to spare. Their current pace projects well beyond last season’s finish, reflecting measurable progress in both offensive production and overall consistency.

While there is still a substantial portion of the season remaining, the evidence so far suggests that preseason skepticism underestimated the Canadiens’ growth. Instead of fighting simply to stay relevant, Montreal has established itself as a legitimate contender.