Alex DeBrincat’s Future Looms Large Amid Red Wings’ Uncertainty

The Detroit Red Wings have major business to address in the coming months, starting with their search for the next general manager and how to handle captain Dylan Larkin. Beyond that, another significant situation is brewing, namely the future of sniper Alex DeBrincat, who has just one season left on his deal and is due for a raise in his next contract. Realistically, the Red Wings need to sort out the GM and Larkin situations before addressing DeBrincat, but that negotiation might not be easy either.

DeBrincat’s current deal carries a $7.875MM AAV. After a 41-goal, 84-point season, it’s fair to say he’s due to eclipse that number by a decent amount. However, if he goes into the season and continues at that pace, or produces even better numbers, his leverage will be off the charts. But therein lies a big issue for the Red Wings: who will negotiate the contract? Or will the new GM even want DeBrincat as a building block? Maybe they’d prefer he be a trade chip?

That’s an issue that will likely be part of GM interviews, given that DeBrincat is an integral member of the Red Wings. You could imagine a scenario in which a GM has to trade Larkin, then cashes in on DeBrincat while his value is high and tries to trade him to acquire additional young players while building around Lucas Raymond and Moritz Seider. In an alternate world, the new GM tries to convince Larkin to stay and opts to extend DeBrincat long term, making those two the main building blocks along with Raymond and Seider.

If Larkin is ultimately shipped out, finding a resolution becomes all the more urgent because Detroit simply can’t have another sideshow involving one of their top players. Losing their captain would be tough enough, but watching their leading scorer walk a year later can’t happen. They need to decide whether a DeBrincat extension is possible or whether they need to cut and run.

But cutting and running will not be easy, and neither will signing DeBrincat long term, especially if the Red Wings signal a retool or rebuild. DeBrincat will almost certainly have no appetite for any major roster transition, as he is 28 and has yet to play an NHL playoff game in front of fans. If a new GM walks into Detroit and starts talking about a three- to five-year plan to get to the playoffs, DeBrincat will almost certainly oppose a contract extension with the Red Wings, because he could just as easily get his money in a market that is set to go through a window of contention.

The timing of all of these issues could not be worse for the Red Wings, and with NHL training camps set to open in a little over a month, it’s not unfathomable that Detroit could open their camp without knowing who their new GM is, whether Larkin is staying or being traded, or whether DeBrincat wants to sign an extension. That is a pile of uncertainty for an organisation that hasn’t made the playoffs in a decade and has just shuffled a franchise legend from the general manager chair into a job that effectively exists to save face.

The organization might feel they have time with DeBrincat, since they have nearly 11 months to sign him and he is a local boy (DeBrincat is from Farmington Hills, Michigan). In theory, that could be true, but Larkin is from just north of Farmington Hills in Waterford, Michigan, and that hasn’t stopped him from planning his exit from Detroit. It also didn’t stop Alex Tuch from bolting out of Buffalo when he hit free agency, even though he’s from nearby Syracuse, New York. The fact is that the longer this drags, the more brutal the choices are likely to become, especially if it gets close to the NHL Trade Deadline.

If Detroit is outside the playoffs, the decision to move him should be fairly simple (if he is still unsigned). But if the Red Wings are on the bubble or in the playoffs at the deadline, things get very challenging and retaining him as an own rental would likely be the move. Retaining an unsigned DeBrincat past the deadline would be a massive risk for Detroit, one they likely don’t want to take.

Unfortunately for Detroit, this situation carries risk in every option. Even signing DeBrincat will be a massive risk, as they would be locking him into a deal that covers his age 30–36 seasons, presumably, and he is not a big player, standing at just 5’8”. AFP Analytics projects DeBrincat’s extension at $12.1MM over seven years, which feels about right given the contracts handed out this summer. Does Detroit even want to be the team that pays that kind of money to an undersized, aging, one-dimensional winger? Hard to say, but someone will pay him. It’s just tough to gauge whether or not it will be the Red Wings.