NHL Saturday bets: Game and team totals
There's 26 teams hitting the ice Saturday, but we've cut down our favorite looks to just four games. There's plenty to like from a prop perspective, but we're keeping our focus on a more absolute market.
Minnesota over 3.5 goals in regulation (-138 FD)
This is quite the juiced play to start our day, but it's a play I'm comfortable betting given the situation. Minnesota hosts Anaheim Saturday afternoon, and the Wild are averaging 3.5 goals per game at home.
That total should be buoyed today thanks to a Ducks team allowing 4.5 goals per game on the road, and Minnesota has themselves the ninth-highest power-play scoring rate while Anaheim's penalty kill is the worst in the NHL.
Knowing a PP goal or two is likely coming down the tracks, we should be in a good spot to reach four goals from the Wild. Minnesota has notched 4+ goals in four of their last six games, and five of their last six against the Ducks.
These two met at the beginning of November and the Wild won 4-1.
Montreal-Edmonton over 6.5 goals (-125 DK)
We've got a pair of vulnerable goalies expected to go at it tonight in Edmonton, which was my initial flag to dig into this game for a potential over.
Montreal's Jake Allen is allowing 3.57 goals per start, and Edmonton's Jack Campbell has surrendered 4.04 goals on average. I'd lean toward the Oilers to do the heavy lifting here goal wise, as Montreal isn't shy to allow penalties and has struggled to slow down PP scoring.
What put this pick over the edge was the recent history between these two teams. The over has reached seven goals in five straight meetings.
Toronto-Tampa Bay over 6 goals (-115 DK)
Speaking of recent history, how about we talk about what has gone down in recent Maple Leafs-Lightning games?
The final three regular-season games between these two last season saw game totals of 8, 8 and 9. Then they met in a seven-game series in the first round of the playoffs, with the total exceeding 6.5 in five of those games.
Today we need the game to reach just six for a push and seven for a win. I'd be open to bumping this up to 6.5, but candidly am writing these picks out Friday night to clear my day to go watch the USA game.
Based on what I'm seeing, both teams should find success on the power play to help us out with some goals. The total has gone over in eight of the last ten home games for the Lightning.
Seattle over 3.5 goals (+120 DK)
I think Seattle can beat Florida this evening at home, but currently their moneyline is -110, so I'm seeing the better value on them going over 3.5 goals.
First, the high-level numbers: the Kraken are averaging 3.2 goals per game at home while the Panthers are seeing 3.6 goals per game scored against them on the road. A second box is checked when seeing Seattle's top-10 PP scoring rate and Florida's bottom-10 penalty killing rate, and the final leg of the research process for me comes through when seeing that Seattle scored five and four in two games against Florida last season. They won both of those games, by the way.
Seattle has been absolutely rolling of late, winners of seven straight, scoring 4+ in four of their last five. Here's to the Kraken keeping the goals coming.
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