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Ryan McDonagh is back via trade in the city where he was a vital part of consecutive Stanley Cup wins. The Nashville Predators moved McDonagh, and his substantial salary, to the Tampa Bay Lightning earlier today. Along with McDonagh on the blueline, Tampa also receives a 2024 fourth rounder. In exchange to the Predators, who receive a 2025 second round pick and a 2024 seventh round pick.
Lightning and Predators Move Ryan McDonagh Again
McDonagh averaged nearly 23 minutes of ice time in Tampa Bay’s 2020-21 victory, over 24 minutes the year before. Even in their attempted three-peat, he was well over 22 minutes per game. But his $6.75 million cap hit was getting harder to maneuver around, and they asked him to waive his no-trade clause for Nashville.
He did well with the Predators, though the team missed the playoffs in his first season there. What should have been a push to get beyond the first round instead ended John Hynes’ coaching stay. The next year, under Andrew Brunette, the 34-year-old McDonagh took a leadership role, improving his offensive output and his defence. They charged to the second wild card slot and into the playoffs after being written off. McDonagh continued his strong play against the Vancouver Canucks, putting up an assist and 6 minutes in penalties before they were eliminated in their first round 2024 NHL Stanley Cup playoff matchup.
Who Gets What
Tampa Bay is in an interesting spot. They aren’t a young team by any stretch of the imagination and with captain Steven Stamkos an unrestricted free agent a rebuild would seem to be the right choice. But with this deal, they are bringing in not only an older player but an expensive one for two more seasons.
One reason is who they have locked up long-term. Even if they do let Stamkos walk, the team has plenty of firepower to contend again next season. By acquiring Ryan McDonagh in trade, it will help fill in a leadership role. And the dearth of high draft picks in the next two seasons means a rebuild will have to wait.
Nashville frees up a lot of salary cap space and improves their stock of draft picks. If they go the rebuild route, it’s well-timed. They still have to ride out the cap recapture penalties of Kyle Turris and Matt Duchene and retention of Ryan Johansen. They have a decision to make regarding warhorse netminder Jusse Saros, but whatever they choose they’ll be able to afford it.
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Five NHL stars in danger of regressing in 2025-26
Whether you like it or not, math and luck play a role in hockey. Sometimes players are scoring or stopping the puck at a higher rate than they usually do, and sometimes they’re doing it at a lower rate. Regardless, the bill always comes due, and those percentages swing the other way, unless the player is just that good. Every year, we see some players produce at a rate that is a big outlier versus the rest of their career, and they hardly ever keep it up. So I thought it’d be a good idea to take a look at some players who overperformed their percentages in 2024-25 and will possibly see those results go the other way next year. It’s not a guarantee that every player on this list will get worse, especially when percentages don’t play nearly as much of an impact on regression as it used to. But it’s still important to look at and be aware of them, especially if you’re a fan wanting to manage expectations, or a fantasy hockey player looking for players to avoid in this season’s draft. Before we begin, here are a few honorable mentions: Darcy Kuemper, Los Angeles Kings After Kuemper was dealt to the Los Angeles Kings last summer as a salary cap dump, I don’t think anyone envisioned him turning his season around to the point where he was a Vezina finalist. But, he did just that thanks to a .922 save percentage and a +20.91 goals saved above expected, partially do to a strong Kings defensive system. The bad news: His SV% was .007 higher than his career average. The good news: 2023-24 saw him finish .025 below his career average, so last season was just a positive regression (he was a candidate for that in last year’s positive regression list). So, while he won’t be this good next season, expect him to fall closer to his career mark of .915. Connor McMichael, Washington Capitals McMichael won’t be the only Washington Capitals player you’ll see today, which you should probably expect from the team that led the league in shooting percentage both at 5v5 and at all strengths. McMichael had just a 10.39% on-ice SH% in his career, compared to a 13.1% rate this season, so expect his overall point production to dip a bit more in 2025-26. Considering that there will be plenty of Capitals expected to regress as well, the fact that his point totals were largely helped because of that on-ice SH% (read: his teammate’s unsustainable performances) will make him more vulnerable to regression. Anthony Stolarz, Toronto Maple Leafs Stolarz cracked last year’s edition of this list, as even in his role as a backup for the Florida Panthers, he was putting up phenomenal numbers. He had another fantastic season with a .926 SV% and 25.89 5v5 GSAx while backstopping the Toronto Maple Leafs, and he was a big reason they won the division last season. He still outperformed his career SV% by .008, but with back-to-back seasons with a .925 SV% or higher under his belt now, he’s creeping closer to “this is who he is” territory. Of course, the big question is if he can do it in a season with more than 34 games played. Now, on to the unlucky five. Pierre-Luc Dubois, Washington Capitals 2024-25 Stats: 20 goals, 46 assists, 66 points What’s the outlier?: On-ice SH% was 4.37% higher than career average Kuemper is not the only player from the cap-dump swap between the Kings and Capitals in 2024 to make this list, as Dubois also found himself on the luckier side of puck in 2024-25. While it didn’t earn him any notoriety like Kuemper (he got just a second and fifth place vote for the Selke Trophy), it did allow him to eclipse the 60-point mark for the fourth time in his career, and set personal highs in assists (46) and points (66). He still isn’t worth his $8 million cap hit, but the Capitals managed to salvage some value this season after it looked putrid in 2023-24. Dubois did also get some positive regression from his horrid 2023-24 campaign (which saw him sport an on-ice SH% 2.05% lower than his career rate), but he was definitely luckier in 2024-25 than he was unlucky in 2023-24. That was largely due to the unsustainable offense from the Capitals last season, especially on the second line with McMichael (an honorable mention for this list) and Tom Wilson (who was also considered). We already saw a step back in Dubois’ game in the playoffs (only three assists in 10 games), and expect more of that in 2025-26. Morgan Geekie, Boston Bruins 2024-25 Stats: 33 goals, 24 assists, 57 points What’s the outlier?: SH% was 7.4% higher than career average, on-ice SH% was 2.59% higher Geekie has seen his game take significant strides since joining the Boston Bruins. After a career-high of just nine goals and 28 points prior to his time in Boston, Geekie already showcased that he had more offensive flair with 17 goals and 39 points in a middle-six role in 2023-24, but last season saw that game raised to another level. As the Bruins got worse and sold off more pieces in 2024-25, Geekie found himself alongside superstar David Pastrnak for most of the season, and reaped the reward of 33 goals and 57 points. Of course, it shouldn’t be a surprise that Geekie benefitted from some luck with that performance. His 22% SH% and 12.94% on-ice SH% were much higher than what he’s usually put up in his career, so that’s a strong indication that his performance isn’t sustainable, at least at this level. That said, the Pastrnak factor does weigh on this a little bit. If Geekie is playing with the star winger, then it’s possible that he can continue to perform like this. But if the Bruins look at him as a player that can drive his own line away from Pasta, I’d expect his play to take a step back. Vladislav Namestnikov, Winnipeg Jets 2024-25 Stats: 11 goals, 27 assists, 38 points What’s the outlier?: 47.37% of points were secondary assists Namestnikov has found new life in his NHL career since joining the Winnipeg Jets, as his back-to-back seasons with 37 and 38 points in 2023-24 and 2024-25 are the most productive years of his career since his time riding shotgun with Nikita Kucherov and Steven Stamkos in 2017-18 with the Tampa Bay Lightning. The performance of the Jets’ second line with Namestnikov, Cole Perfetti and Nikolaj Ehlers helped the Jets to their first Presidents’ Trophy last season, and after two seasons with this line together, it’s clearly paid off for Namestnikov. Unfortunately, that chemistry is about to be dismantled. Ehlers left in free agency to sign with the Carolina Hurricanes, and with Jonathan Toews joining the fold, there’s a solid chance that Perfetti and Namestnikov will be split up so that one of the two can center the third line. On top of that, there is a bit more unsustainability behind Namestnikov’s performance in 2024-25, as nearly half of his points were secondary assists, compared to only 35.14% in 2023-24. The loss of Ehlers will likely see the Jets as a whole take a step back, but no player may see it impact their game more than Namestnikov. J.J. Peterka, Utah Mammoth 2024-25 Stats: 27 goals, 41 assists, 68 points What’s the outlier?: On-ice SH% was 2.98% higher than career average If there’s any player on this list I could see proving me wrong and demonstrating that their unsustainable performance is just a new gear to their game, it’s Peterka. He’s clearly the most talented player in this group, with 28- and 27-goal seasons under his belt, and he scored them at a sustainable rate based on what we’ve seen from his career. On top of that, he’s the only player changing teams, with the Utah Mammoth trading for him and betting on his performance with a $7.7 million AAV for five years, so it’s possible that a new environment will allow him to thrive even more. But, there are still some red flags from his 2024-25 season. While his goal totals were sustainable, he did see his assist totals skyrocket after he replaced Jeff Skinner on the Buffalo Sabres’ top line alongside Tage Thompson and Alex Tuch, largely due to 15.1% on-ice SH%. He’s not nearly as much of an aberration compared to other players on this list, and if anything, this may just indicate that he can elevate his playmaking skills when playing with talented players. If that’s the case, that’s something that will come in handy when playing with Clayton Keller, Logan Cooley and Dylan Guenther in Utah. Aliaksei Protas, Washington Capitals 2024-25 Stats: 30 goals, 36 assists, 66 points What’s the outlier?: SH% was 9.5% highest than career average, on-ice SH% was 3.58% higher It shouldn’t be too much of a surprise to see Protas on here considering that he played for the Capitals, but his outlying percentages certainly confirm it. His increase in both SH% and on-ice SH% was one of the larger jumps seen by a player this season, and it should even be clear in his scoring stats that this was the case when he scored 24 more goals and 37 more points than he did in 2023-24. Primarily playing with Alex Ovechkin as he put together an incredible goal-scoring season for his age certainly helped there. So, like the other Capitals on this list, a slight step back from Protas should be expected, at least in terms of the rate that he and his linemates were shooting the puck. It’s possible that his production may still be able to keep up due to the natural development of a 24-year-old, but I’d also be curious to see how his on-ice SH% fares in a season where there isn’t a historic goal chase for one of his linemates. At the very least, his “unsustainable goal total” was likely just a regression from shooting 5.3% in 2023-24. He may not hit 30 goals next year, but he’ll definitely have more than six.
Padres already demoting one of their trade-deadline acquisitions
The Padres announced they’ve optioned JP Sears to Triple-A El Paso. They recalled reliever Sean Reynolds and will go with a nine-man bullpen in the short term. Sears will spend at least 15 days in the minors unless he’s brought up to replace a player going on the injured list. San Diego acquired Sears alongside Mason Miller in last week’s massive deadline deal. The 29-year-old southpaw made his team debut Monday night. He allowed five runs in as many innings on 10 hits and a walk against the Diamondbacks. Sears took the loss in a 6-2 defeat. He’d carried a 4.95 earned run average over 22 starts with the A’s. Monday's performance pushed his ERA to 5.12 across 116 innings. It’s a bottom-10 mark among pitchers to log at least 100 frames. Sears had the highest home run rate among that group, offsetting his nearly league-average 20.3% strikeout rate and solid 6% walk percentage. This is the first time in two-and-a-half years that Sears heads to the minors. He broke camp with the A’s in 2023 and has been in the majors since then. Sears has also avoided the injured list for that entire time. As a result, he’s tied for fifth in MLB with 87 starts since the beginning of the ’23 season. The durability is the big selling point, as his production (4.62 ERA/4.56 SIERA) over that stretch is that of a fifth or sixth starter. The demotion shouldn’t have any impact on Sears’ service trajectory. He has already surpassed the three-year mark and will qualify for arbitration next winter. He’s under team control for three seasons beyond this one. While he’ll probably be back up at some point this year, it may require an injury elsewhere in the rotation. San Diego optioned Randy Vásquez over the weekend. They have a four-man rotation of Dylan Cease, Nick Pivetta, Yu Darvish and deadline acquisition Nestor Cortes. Darvish and Cortes will get the ball for the next two outings. San Diego is off Thursday and could turn back to Pivetta and Cease on extra rest for their first two games of the weekend series against the Red Sox. That’d point to the series finale on Aug. 10 as Michael King’s return date. King threw 61 pitches in what is expected to be his final rehab start on Sunday, via the MLB.com injury tracker. He’d be on six days' rest for his first MLB appearance since he went on the injured list in late May with a nerve problem in his throwing shoulder.
Jerry Jones takes another jab at Micah Parsons over contract stalemate
The Dallas Cowboys have a big problem on their hands right now. Micah Parsons has formally requested to be traded, and he took to social media to vent his concerns and frustration with his contract extension situation. However, team owner Jerry Jones isn't ready to budge. If anything, the controversial business mogul doesn't sound too worried about that. Talking to the media, he implied that he had already shaken hands on an extension with Parsons, so he just has to wait now: "I bought the Dallas Cowboys with a handshake," Jones said, per The Athletic's Jon Machota. "It took about 30 seconds. I gave the number, shook hands, the details we worked out later." Jones, one of the most successful businessmen of his generation, pretty much stated that he wouldn't change the way he does business. "Just so you understand the way that I communicate with people that I negotiate with. Let's leave it at that," Jones continued. "There's is no question that in the case of a player contract, you have to have it in writing. All parties do. We have a contract in writing, yet we're still talking about renegotiating, so so much for that." Parsons has every right to feel frustrated. He's one of the best pass-rushers in the game, and he's the youngest in the short list of superstars at the position. The Cowboys have a long history of dragging out negotiations for as long as they can, and that's usually rubbed their players the wrong way. Parsons is still under contract, and the Cowboys can technically wait to give him an extension because the market isn't likely to go any higher after T.J. Watt already got a deal done. But sometimes, it's not just about money, and these power struggles are terrible for team morale.
Yankees Pitchers Inching Toward Their Last Weeks in Pinstripes
Fate in the Bronx right now is thinning, as August settles in. The New York Yankees are on a slide, and the slumping is contagious throughout the roster. Yankees pitchers have been scary in a not-so-good way. Some of these pitchers are playing their way to unemployment. The Yankees are now six and a half games behind the Toronto Blue Jays in the American League East. Having once led the division by a healthy margin, they are now on the outside looking in. This is due to a combination of inability to score runs and make plays. In addition, quality in the pitching depth has not been present. Certain pitchers acquired as valuable pieces are not pulling their weight and do not appear likely to return in 2026. Yankees Pitchers Who Could Be Gone After This Season Brian Cashman and his office already said goodbye to one of their big-dollar pitchers, Marcus Stroman. Shortly after acquiring relief pitcher Jake Bird at the trade deadline, the Yankees instantly regretted their decision. Bird, one of Colorado’s relief pitchers, was demoted to Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre due to an ugly first impression. There are a few more arms that the club would like to part with, but will have to wait for the offseason to make it official. Devin Williams Could Be Out of New York in 2026 Closer Devin Williams was acquired to be the Yankees’ established late-game door-shutter. The right-hander held high hopes as one of the league’s top closers. The 2025 season has brought him nothing but struggle and grief in the Big Apple. Williams has 43 innings of work this season for the Yankees. He currently holds a 5.44 ERA, allowing 26 runs on 33 hits. He currently ranks 18th of 30 MLB closers in saves. Williams has 17 saves, three blown saves, and a .208 batting average against. Although these numbers are not terrible, the Yankees reliever does not have what it takes to shut the door in the Bronx. He’s proven his reliability is thin and inconsistent. The remainder of the season is important for Williams, as he needs redemption. He’s set to be a free agent at the end of this season. Jonathan Loáisiga May Be in His Last Months in Pinstripes Jonathan Loáisiga was shut down due to injury, underwent surgery, and returned. The Yankees provided him an opportunity, in hopes that he’s able to come back stronger and elite. He was reactivated on March 16th. The right-hander has not had much to offer this season, with short stints totalling 29 2/3 innings. He holds a 4.25 ERA with a 2.1 HR/9 and a 1.483 WHIP. Loaisiga was in sight as a key part of the Yankees’ bullpen blueprint this season. On August 3rd, the right-hander re-entered the injured list on a 15-day sideline due to back tightness. Loaisiga has a club option of $5 million that the Yankees likely will not pick up. Luke Weaver May Be One of a Few Relief Pitchers to Go Luke Weaver was the trusted arm in the 2024 postseason and World Series. After Clay Holmes was re-purposed in the bullpen and departed the Bronx, Weaver could follow the same fate. Weaver has good stuff on the mound. However, multiple teams have figured him out. He was the set-up man after Williams was assigned to the closer role. After struggling, Weaver was placed back in the closer role while Williams joined the other relief pitchers. The right-handed started off elite in 2025 and slowly declined. He has an ERA over five since returning from injury on June 20th. His current overall ERA is 2.89 in 43 2/3 innings pitched with eight saves, 15 games finished, a 2-3 record, and 16 runs allowed on 25 hits. Weaver is currently on a club option and is set to be a free agent in 2026. The Yankees will likely re-think this option as one of their relief pitchers for next season.
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