An expansion draft primer for the Tampa Bay Lightning

Over the next few weeks, we will be breaking down each team’s situation as it pertains to the 2021 NHL Expansion Draft. Which players are eligible, who will likely warrant protection and which ones may be on the block to avoid the risk of losing them for nothing? Each team is required to submit its protection lists by 4 PM CDT on July 17th. The full eligibility rules can be found here, while CapFriendly has an expansion tool to make your own lists.

Back in 2017, Tampa Bay made a side deal with Vegas to force the Golden Knights into taking defenseman Jason Garrison. The price they paid was fairly steep in Nikita Gusev plus second- and fourth-round draft picks, but it allowed them to retain two young blueliners in Jake Dotchin and Slater Koekkoek.  With their salary-cap situation, it seems quite likely that the Lightning will be making a trade with Seattle to get the Kraken to pick a specific player.

Eligible Players (Non-UFA)

Forwards:
 Alex Barre-Boulet, Anthony Cirelli, Ross Colton, Nikita Kucherov (NMC), Yanni Gourde, Tyler Johnson, Mathieu Joseph, Boris Katchouk, Alex Killorn, Pat Maroon, Ondrej Palat, Brayden Point, Taylor Raddysh, Otto Somppi, Steven Stamkos (NMC), Mitchell Stephens, Daniel Walcott

Defense:
 Erik Cernak, Sean Day, Callan Foote, Victor Hedman (NMC), Dominik Masin, Ryan McDonagh, Jan Rutta, Mikhail Sergachev

Goalies:
 Spencer Martin, Andrei Vasilevskiy

Notable Unrestricted Free Agents

Andreas Borgman, Fredrik Claesson, Blake Coleman, Barclay Goodrow, David Savard, Luke Schenn, Gemel Smith

Notable Exemptions

G Hugo Alnefelt, F Ryan Lohin, F Jimmy Huntington, G Amir Miftakhov, F Antoine Morand

Key Decisions

There are some problems that are good to have, and having too many good players is certainly one of them. Without a side deal in place, it means that Tampa Bay is going to lose a good one no matter which route it goes.

Let’s look at Tampa Bay's defense first. Hedman and Sergachev are sure-fire bets to be protected but that’s about it. McDonagh is a key cog on the Lightning's back end and logged nearly 22 minutes a game during the regular season, and that has gone up slightly in the playoffs. He’s a big part of the puzzle. However, he’s also 32 years old and signed through 2026 at a $6.75 million average annual value. With that term and price tag, could he safely be left unprotected?

That would leave at least one opening for a younger blueliner, although there are a couple of players to consider for that potential last spot in a 7/3/1 scheme. Cernak took another step forward this season, spending a lot of it inside Tampa’s top four. He’s signed on a team-friendly bridge deal for two more years at $2.95 million, and making him available would be very enticing for the Kraken.

Then there’s Foote. He only made his NHL debut this season in what was a very limited role but he’s also not that far removed from being a first-round pick as he was selected 14th overall back in 2017. He’ll need waivers beginning next season so he should be a full-timer on the roster at what should be a price tag of under $1 million on a short-term contract. Considering Tampa Bay's cap situation, it would be hard to part with a cheap roster player.

That cap situation will certainly dictate the Lightning's approach with their forwards as well. Kucherov and Stamkos are automatic protectees while Point and Cirelli don’t have to be protected but are safe bets to be.

Normally, finishing fourth on the team in scoring would make a player a safe bet to be protected, but that’s not the case with Gourde. The small center played at a 25-goal, 52-point pace this season, which is quite good, but he’s on the books for four more years at $5.167 million. That’s not a bad return on the contract, but knowing that they need to free up some money, he could be left unprotected.

Palat finished second in scoring behind only Point, and even that isn’t enough to make him a lock to be protected. His price tag is certainly reasonable at $5.3 million, and he has only one year left, so it’s not a long-term drag on Tampa Bay’s cap. But if the Lightning want to protect four defensemen, Palat could very well be squeezed out.

Killorn is another long-time Lightning veteran who could feel the squeeze. He played at a 40-plus-point pace again this season and would have gotten there had it not been for the pandemic-shortened campaign, which would have been the fourth straight year of getting to that mark. At $4.45 million, he’s not overly expensive either. And with only two years left, it’s certainly a manageable deal. But again, they’re facing a situation where they simply have to move money out.