Assessing this summer’s buyout candidates

You could argue that Rielly’s defensive struggles are mainly due to being on a poor defensive team, but the truth is that he wasn’t strong defensively even when the Maple Leafs had a solid possession numbers. Still, is it worth buying him out? Probably not. Rielly currently earns $7.5MM a year and has four years left on his contract. Despite the cost, he might be worth keeping or trading.

A Rielly buyout would have Toronto paying him $3.5MM per season for the next four years, followed by $2MM annually for the subsequent four years. Sure, the cost savings over the next four years would be $4MM annually, but then the team needs to find a top four defender to replace Rielly, and the Maple Leafs likely won’t find one for less than the savings amount. A trade would be the best option for Toronto, but Rielly still has the leverage for the next two years with a full no-movement clause, which could complicate any potential trade.

Sliding east of Toronto, the Canadiens have a potential buyout candidate in veteran forward Brendan Gallagher. Including the 33-year-old on this list will upset some, but his decline since 2021 has been well-documented.

Prior to 2021, Gallagher was one of the most consistently effective 5-on-5 scorers in the NHL. However, Father Time is undefeated, and Gallagher is no longer a top-nine forward, even though he still earns like one. With just six goals and 16 assists in 76 games this season, he has been a healthy scratch for Montreal this week, which could be a sign of what’s to come. Montreal boasts a strong group of forwards, with more young prospects on the way, and it could become a numbers game that Gallagher loses.

The other side of the argument with Gallagher is that he has only one year left on his contract, with a cap hit of $6.5MM, but he is owed just $4MM in actual salary. It’s possible he could be traded to a team trying to reach the salary cap floor or swapped for another problematic contract. If Montreal considers a buyout, it would save them $2.67MM next season but add a $1.33MM cap charge in 2027-28.

Since Montreal has most of its core signed and over $12MM in cap space available this summer, it has no immediate need to part ways with Gallagher unless it plans a major move. There’s also a potential morale issue if the Canadiens decide to release a popular veteran who has given everything to the organization, the fans, and the city.

Staying in Canada shifted the focus westward. Oilers forward Trent Frederic and his contract sent shockwaves through the NHL just 12 months ago when it was signed. Many pundits were left scratching their heads when the Oilers inked Frederic to an eight-year, $30.8MM contract extension just days before free agency opened.

The $3.85MM cap hit was a bit high for many people’s tastes, but not outrageous, given that Frederic was a pending UFA. However, the length of the deal seemed excessive for a role player, especially one who wasn’t very effective last season.

This year, Frederic has four goals and three assists in 70 games. That’s poor offensive production for anyone, let alone a player earning nearly $4MM annually. Some of this can be attributed to an unusually low shooting percentage of 5.7%, about half of his typical success rate. If he regresses to the mean next season, he should score more goals, but it’s not just his offensive numbers this season that are concerning.

Aside from one season when he tallied 40 points, Frederic has never been a significant offensive contributor or a player who drives or controls the pace of play, making the eight-year contract a particularly poor decision.

There is just a lot wrong with Frederic’s game, and in an era where making mistakes on mid-tier contracts can be disastrous due to the parity in the NHL, this one is particularly bad. That said, Edmonton would have to absorb a 14-year cap hit if it bought out the 28-year-old, which means he’s probably staying beyond this season.

Finally, we come to the most obvious candidate: Jesperi Kotkaniemi, who is somehow still just 25 years old. When the Hurricanes sent an offer sheet to Kotkaniemi back in August 2021, they were betting on his potential to become a top-six center.

After all, Kotkaniemi was a third overall pick in 2018 and had the skill set to elevate his game and move up the lineup. However, the offer sheet was very ill-advised, with the idea reportedly coming from Hurricanes owner Tom Dundon in response to the Montreal Canadiens’ offer sheeting Sebastian Aho two years prior.

Kotkaniemi never really developed an offensive side to his game, and at this stage of his career, he is what he is – a reasonably good defensive center who doesn’t score much. This year, Kotkaniemi has two goals and seven assists in 38 games. Although he put up 43 points a few years ago, it doesn’t seem likely that he’ll become a consistent 40-point player. At $4.82MM a year for four more seasons, the Hurricanes have an opportunity to save some serious cash by buying him out.

Due to his age, Carolina could buy out Kotkaniemi this summer for just 33% of the remaining money on his deal, which is about $6.8MM. That would save Carolina almost $4MM next season, and $4.35MM in each of the three years after that.

Now, the Hurricanes are usually not a cap team, but they have only $14MM available this summer (as per PuckPedia) and four players to sign. If they want to add to the lineup and improve their chances in the quest for the Stanley Cup, this could be a way to create some much-needed breathing room under the salary cap.

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