Avalanche Facing Cap Crunch During 2025 Offseason

While the lack of offense at opportune times wasn’t the only reason the Avalanche lost, the lack of production further down the lineup was noticeable. Charlie Coyle, Martin Necas, Drouin, and Nelson combined for two goals over seven games, and wasted an incredible series from Nathan MacKinnon (seven goals and 11 points) and an unexpected outburst from bottom-six forward Logan O’Connor (six points). Given the major assets sent away to acquire three of those four players (Rantanen, Calum Ritchie, conditional first-round pick, second-round pick), their inability to contribute meaningfully on the offensive front stings even more.

While simple math dictates that there will be significant departures this summer, it remains to be seen who may be traded and who will sign elsewhere in free agency. Coyle ($5.25 million), Samuel Girard ($5 million), Josh Manson ($4.5 million), Ross Colton ($4 million), and Miles Wood ($2.5 million) are five players who take up over $20 million of the cap on their own. All five are either on the wrong side of the aging curve, did not play at the level suggested by their respective cap hits, or both.

Here is a very rough and preliminary projection of the Avalanche’s ideal lineup combination for next season, with only players who are virtually guaranteed to return.

Based on this projection, the Avalanche’s offseason objectives are clear: find a solution at second-line center, reconstruct a third line via free agency or trade, which could ideally push both Jack Drury and O’Connor to the fourth line, and completely revamp the blue line behind the first pair.

The projected lineup leaves the Avalanche with just under $31 million in cap space for four forwards and four defenders and assumes that none of Drouin, Coyle, Nelson, Girard, Manson, Colton, and Wood return. Yet, it is far more likely that they remain in Colorado given that they would have to overpay opposing teams for cleaning their cap sheet.

The top free agent centers include Claude Giroux (age 37), John Tavares (34), Matt Duchene (34), and Sam Bennett (28), but all four carry significant risk on long-term deals. Mitch Marner, Nikolaj Ehlers, Brad Marchand, and Brock Boeser are also intriguing options on the wing, but none of those players would come in at anything representing a bargain, and the team would be better served addressing more pressing issues.

The top defenders likely to be available in free agency are Aaron Ekblad, Ivan Provorov, Vladislav Gavrikov, and Dmitry Orlov, but none of that quartet are younger than 28, and are the exact age profile of a player who is overpaid every offseason. Inefficient contracts are the hallmark of NHL free agency, so the Avalanche will have to do their due diligence before spending that potential $30 million war chest.

Avalanche Front Office Must Search for Bargains in Free Agency

While the free agent market is full of landmines, there are still good deals to be had. Joel Armia and Mason Appleton are bigger wingers who could help Colorado’s forecheck while offering a scoring touch in the bottom-six. Andrew Mangiapane never lived up to the contract he signed after a 35-goal season with the Calgary Flames ($5.8 million per season), but he could be a successful reclamation project if he signs for half of that and settles into a depth scoring role on the Avalanche’s third line.

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Dante Fabbro and Nate Schmidt would be cost-effective but high-upside options on the third pair to make the team’s other two pairings more mobile, while soon-to-be 27-year-old Nick Perbix (6-foot-4, right-handed) offers a blend of capable transition play and physicality. Perbix in particular could be a ready-made replacement for the 33-year-old Manson, allowing them to move the declining veteran without sacrificing the physical element that is in short supply on their otherwise skilled blue line.

Barring a possible, but unlikely, overhaul, the Avalanche might be playing a game of musical chairs and waiting for capable veterans unable to secure a contract to shake loose. They can offer the chance to play for a winner, and in an offense-friendly environment which could lead to a lucrative contract next summer. That is frustrating for fans hoping to lure in a high-impact player, but it is the reality of a hard cap system.

Avalanche Have Building Blocks of Stanley Cup Winner

What should offer Avalanche fans a glimmer of hope is that much of the current roster has already won a Stanley Cup. While acknowledging the obvious about aging curves, all of MacKinnon, Cale Makar, Devon Toews, Girard, Jack Johnson, Gabriel Landeskog, Valeri Nichushkin, and Artturi Lehkonen featured heavily in 2022. Most of those players are likely to be back in the fold next season, and a lot can be done to refresh and reinvigorate the supporting cast around that core group.

Recent moves haven’t inspired much confidence in the front office, and the team’s trove of draft picks has dwindled with every passing trade deadline, but almost every team in the league would switch places with the Avalanche in an instant. That has to count for something.

Data courtesy of the NHL and PuckPedia.