Avalanche’s Nelson Signing Means More Trades Coming

Earlier this season, the NHL announced that the salary cap would increase to $95.5 million for the 2025-26 season and could reach as high as $113.5 million in 2027-28. Those annual jumps will give every team additional cap room over the next few seasons, but the Avalanche are still staring down a cap conundrum this summer as a result of Nelson’s extension. If the team wants to return to the top of the Stanley Cup mountain, they may have to make some painful moves.

Avalanche Do Not Have Much Salary Cap Room

While the current Avalanche lineup is nearly complete, Nelson’s new contract takes a chunk out of the budget which will need to be used to put the finishing touches or account for short-term injury replacements. Take a look at Colorado’s projected roster for the 2025-26 season prior to free agency:

The lineup above is only missing one right-side defenseman and represents $94.3 million allocated across 12 forwards, five defensemen, and two goaltenders. This configuration leaves only $1.2 million to be spent on at least one more blueliner, but having a spare skater or two on the NHL roster should be the goal and could require another $1.55 million or so to accommodate.

The Avalanche recently announced that Logan O’Connor would miss the start of next season due to hip surgery. O’Connor’s absence would allow Colorado to place his $2.5 million cap hit on long term injured reserve (LTIR) and clear additional cap space.

Jonathan Drouin, Joel Kiviranta, Ryan Lindgren, and Sam Malinski are the Avalanche’s most-notable players currently without contracts for the 2025-26 season. Here are the expected cap hits on their new deals based on contract projections from AFP Analytics.

Those four players collectively project to earn just under $12 million next season meaning that, barring significant discounts being taken, the Avalanche cannot afford to bring them back in 2025-26.

Coyle ($5.25 million), Samuel Girard ($5 million), Josh Manson ($4.5 million), Ross Colton ($4 million), and Miles Wood ($2.5 million) are the leading candidates to be traded this offseason given their playoff struggles, inconsistent health, age profile, or outsized salary for their respective on-ice roles. Those five collectively account for more than $20 million and could instead see that space being used to rebuild the depth behind the top-six forwards and the top defensive pair, especially considering the results of Colorado’s first-round playoff series versus the Dallas Stars.

In the unlikely event all five are moved for non-player assets, the Avalanche would have more than $25 million to spend on at least four forwards (middle- or bottom-six) and four defensemen (second- and third-pair level). Some of that could be consumed by veterans on near league-minimum deals, but it could be difficult to find two top-four defenders for less than the $9.5 million combined spent on Girard and Manson.

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Coyle, Colton, Wood, Martin Necas, Drouin, Kiviranta, and Nelson combined for two goals over seven games in the first-round series against the Stars, while no skater other than Nathan MacKinnon recorded more than seven points. Teams can be carried through the playoffs by their superstars on occasion, but most Stanley Cup-winning clubs don’t make it a habit. Any leftover cap space would need to be utilized wisely by targeting cheaper players who may be coming off of down years and who could flourish in a better offensive environment.

Avalanche Roster Could Look Much Different in 2025-26

While the Avalanche did well to navigate injury troubles and inconsistent play from their goaltenders this season, their first-round exit meant the campaign ended on a sour note. The desire to improve and revamp certain areas of the roster coupled with a rising cap environment could lead the Avalanche to seriously consider the composition of their lineup heading into the 2025 offseason.

The Nelson extension is the first step in the Avalanche’s next Stanley Cup journey. The only question is who will join him in 2025-26 and who will be playing elsewhere.

Data courtesy of the NHL and PuckPedia.