Big game Marner, goalie splits, and who is this year’s Tyler Toffoli: Leaflets

Tonight, the regular season resumes. It’s been a fun break, and that’s a bit easier to say after Canada won the Four Nations with Mitch Marner playing a huge part in that success. It’s now under two weeks until the trade deadline, so be prepared to hear way too much about healthy scratches and what team has scouts at which games (please note, scouts watching games is essentially what they do and have set territories, stop reading too much into this.)

With all that has gone on and is about to go on in hockey, it’s time to drop a few random thoughts on the Leafs:

Marner comes up big when it matters most

There has been a playoff sized monkey on Marner’s back for a long time. This comes with the territory when you want to be paid in the eight digits, frequently put your foot in your mouth when addressing your performance, and don’t have a frame that can at least leave naysayers talking about your hit count. Marner in the playoffs has been hard to watch but it seems like Jon Cooper at least illustrated the path to get him out of that funk. Find a way for Marner to be Marner.

Marner elevated himself in the finals by doing things that few others in the game can do. He relied on his vision and foresight to find ways to get the puck to the right player in the moment, setting up the two most critical goals of the tournament, and he embraced his creativity with skating to make space for himself, the only difference seemed to be that he was using it to cut towards the centre of the ice after crossing the blueline rather than just buying himself some time along the boards. That last one is a big difference, especially when the stakes are higher in the playoffs and the opposition has had plenty of time to study film and come with the knowledge of Marner’s comfort food.

Too often in recent years there seems to be more of a push to make Marner a player he isn’t. He’s a good defensive zone player, but Sheldon Keefe was searching for opportunities to use him in defensive situations too frequently. He still needs to be driving offence first. There has been too much of a reliance on the set plays as well, and his creativity looked a lot more like predictability in the playoffs, but not in the Four Nations final. Finally, with Keefe there have been excuses for Marner where under Jon Cooper there were consequences. After underwhelming play in the first game against the Americans, he slid down the lineup and had to work his way back to being on McDavid’s wing. While the Leafs might have had some tough love for Marner behind closed doors in the past, it didn’t translate into a visible repercussions, and Cooper’s did. And Marner responded.

I doubt this is the end of Marner being the most polarizing player in the Leafs’ lineup. He’s still a pending unrestricted free agent with a looming massive contract that, once again, a large subsection of the Toronto population don’t think he’ll be capable of living up to. His track record for big game success with the Leafs is still not where it should be and that is all that will matter to some fans. On the flip side of that, you can certainly find plenty of fans who believe Marner’s point totals and highlight reel moments make him unquestionably in the conversation for one of the greatest Leafs of all time. The two sides will never see eye to eye, but somehow there is truth in both.

Personally, I’m not sure I’m ready for eight years of Marner at $14M AAV, but I have to say, the showing at Four Nations does have me a lot more excited for what he will do in the spring, and my fingers are crossed that Berube’s approach to utilizing Marner mirrors Jon Cooper’s philosophy more than Sheldon Keefe’s.

Dividing the net

Joseph Woll’s 30 games played leave him just three shy of the his busiest professional season of hockey (totals including playoff games), and the Leafs still have 27 games left to go.

In contrast, Anthony Stolarz has played just 18 games this season and while he hasn’t occupied a net for more than 30 games too frequently in his professional career, he did seem like he was going to be the potential workhorse, and his overall numbers still make the stronger case for Stolarz having the Leafs’ net for game one of the playoffs.

What I’m getting at is that, on the surface, it looks like a case for Craig Berube to play Anthony Stolarz more and for Stolarz to see more of the key starts in the remainder of the regular season. What I’m also getting at is that leaning on Stolarz more than Woll seems like a bad idea.

The Leafs’ goaltending situation is pretty decent, but it is one that requires balance. There also is no guarantee that the Leafs will be able to avoid injury, and overworking one goaltender or letting the other go cold only to hand them the reins at the most critical time of the season seems like a potential misstep.

Both goaltenders are coming off of two weeks of rest and are about as healthy as goaltenders can be in 55 game mark of an 82 game season. Balance of workload and balance of competition seem like the best course of action and rather than letting one goaltender play their way into claiming the starter role for a stretch, it should be more about managing fatigue and acknowledging when one needs to slow down.

The Leafs’ strength in net is having two solid options at their disposal, and even though only one will get to start the first game for the Leafs in the playoffs, outcomes and how well they match up against their opponents will likely require them both if Toronto is going to go on a run.

Brad Treliving’s big splash

In 2022, the Flames were in a pretty nice spot. On February 13 of that year, they were one point back of first in the Pacific with three games at hand. But with the threat of being only three points from falling into a wildcard spot, they decided to make a significant move on February 14 to bolster their lineup. They’d go on to win the Pacific with 111 points, seven points ahead of the second place Oilers.

This was Brad Treliving’s big deadline push. The February 14th move to add Tyler Toffoli, and ultimately add Calle Jarnkrok on deadline day as well to beef up their roster.

This season seems remarkably similar. The Leafs are three points out of first in the Atlantic with a couple of games at hand, but have a firmer overall grasp on a playoff spot, at the very least comfortably in the top three of their division. Treliving has his coach in place, they aren’t ten points back of their division leader and firmly in the third spot of their division like last season, and arguably knows this roster a lot better than he did a year ago. The case for the second buying deadline splash of Treliving’s career seems to be at hand.

Looking at who Tyler Toffoli was in 2021-22 sets the bar for who Treliving might be looking at. Toffoli had 26 points in 37 games for a Montreal team that was very much entering its rebuild. He’d end the year as a 20-goal, 49-point winger and most importantly, he still had term on his contract and put up another 34 goals next season for the Flames in what was his career year. He had another year of contract left after that after the Flames flipped him to the Devils.

The move was big, and the price included a first round pick, but Toffoli was on a reasonable $4.25M AAV cap hit with two years remaining, and the deal was a clear home run.

So who are the Toffoli options this year?

First, I’ll acknowledge that going big won’t necessarily look the same this time around. It’s not like there are a ton of examples of what Brad Treliving does in this circumstance. The reality is that he is a GM who is comfortable hedging his bets and term does that. Term is going to have a ton of appeal if Treliving is going to part with an asset he doesn’t want to. It also seems like that player is going need to 100% address the pressing need for the Leafs without question. Toffoli was to address the Flames need for scoring, the Leafs are going to need someone they can trust as a centre.

For me, that points to Ryan O’Reilly as the best option. He has the offence that can put him in the top six if needed, he’s a capable penalty killer/shutdown option, and he’s familiar with both Berube and the Leafs’ core. He seems like the safest possible bet and the player worth moving mountains to make it work for. A lot of what can be said about O’Reilly can be said about Brayden Schenn, minus the familiarity with the Leafs’ core, so he’s comfortably a solid Plan B.

Of course, two players isn’t much of a list for a GM to have and that’s where you have to consider some of the other options that make sense as well. Buffalo Sabres forward Dylan Cozens might not be a defined player where you know what you are getting but he’s talented enough and seems like a smart long term play. The same might also be said of someone like Anaheim’s Trevor Zegras, who doesn’t have any defensive acumen but brings longer term stability to role.

You could also suggest that J.G. Pageau of the New York Islanders is that guy, as he checks the right boxes as a third-line centre and comes with an extra year of term for stability. He’s not quite a big splash but a noticeable addition that beats a rental.

It’s also entirely possible that the bigger splash could come on the blueline and Treliving will choose to go the rental route at centre. In that case, consider this a “buyer beware” for a number of names on Frank Seravalli’s recent trade target list (Rasmus Ristolainen, Seth Jones, and Erik Karlsson for starters.)

While Treliving got it right three years ago with Toffoli, there isn’t a guarantee of the same now, but the situation is at least right for trying.