Blackhawks Need to Take a Run at Matvei Michkov

With the Blackhawks struggling to do anything offensively this season, Michkov would not only help this team currently, but he is young enough to be a big part of the future as well.

Why Michkov Fits

Despite what Blackhawks general manager (GM) Kyle Davidson wants you to believe, this team can’t do much offensively. They rank last in the league in goals for, second-to-last in expected goals for per 60 minutes (xGF/60), and last in power-play percentage (PP%).

Michkov would not only raise the ceiling of this roster offensively, but with him being just 21 years old, he still has plenty of room to grow into a more dominant player.

He’s a flawed player with trouble playing effective defensive hockey, but with an average of no more than 16:41 time on ice (ATOI) in his two complete seasons so far, he’s scored 26 goals in his rookie season and 20 in his sophomore season. This season, through 20 games, he’s scored 10 goals and added four assists with just 15:54 ATOI.

It is noteworthy that he has a shooting percentage (S%) of 34.5%, which is abnormally high even for a player with a shot like his, so there is likely some regression coming here, but with a jump in TOI, his production should improve.

I think putting him on Connor Bedard’s right wing would make an incredibly dangerous line offensively. As I stated before, the defense would be an issue, but as they grow, they should improve.

What It Would Cost

What it would cost is a two-part question because not only would you have to trade for him, but he is also a restricted free agent (RFA) after this season.

First, let’s talk about the trade price, and fair warning, it’s going to be hefty. The Blackhawks have three first-round picks this draft: their own, the Edmonton Oilers’ and the Florida Panthers’. On top of that, they have two second-round picks that should be high seconds, with one of them being the Vancouver Canucks’ and the other being their own.

I’m assuming they’re likely going to have to use either their own first-round pick or both of Edmonton’s and Florida’s. On top of that, likely the Blackhawks’ second-round pick, Frank Nazar and Oliver Moore.

Losing Nazar hurts, but I think Michkov will be a better player when they’re both in their primes, and Moore has seemingly regressed since signing his contract.

Then there’s his contract. I think a fair comparable to Michkov is likely Cutter Gauthier, who just signed a six-year contract with an average annual value (AAV) of $13.5 million. Gauthier does have a 40-goal season under his belt, which is something Michkov can’t say quite yet, so I’m assuming his deal will come in a little bit below that marker.

If I’m projecting his contract, I can see Michkov signing a six-year deal with an AAV around $12 million. I know that is rich, but the salary cap continues to rise, and the salaries we’re seeing in these new contracts are numbers we’ve never seen before.

Something else that is interesting to take into account is what it would cost to just offer-sheet Michkov. If the Blackhawks and Michkov were to agree on the contract I suggested and the Flyers didn’t match it, the Blackhawks would have to give up their next four first-round picks.

To me, that trade offer makes things a little more palatable when you consider you’re actually getting Michkov for sure, and keeping some of your future assets to use later down the line in other deals.

Davidson is drowning right now, and not many people are still defending him, but I think this would be a good move for the Blackhawks GM, who should be on the hot seat.