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Blue Jackets Signing Mitch Marner Wouldn’t Be the Best Use of Cap Space
Mitch Marner, Toronto Maple Leafs (Mandatory Credit: John E. Sokolowski-Imagn Images)

As one of the top pending free agents on the market, eyes are certainly going to gravitate toward Mitch Marner this summer. One team that he’ll seemingly fit on paper would be the Columbus Blue Jackets, however, it wouldn’t be the first time they’ve reportedly tried to bring the forward into their organization. 

Marner’s History With Columbus

During the summer of 2019, a 22-year-old Marner was on the market as a restricted free agent, and the Blue Jackets were apparently interested in signing him to an offer sheet at that point in time. Of course, a lot has changed since then.

The Blue Jackets have a new general manager in Don Waddell, who has some experience with offer sheets himself, as he pulled the uncommon tool out of his belt during his time with the Carolina Hurricanes, signing Jesperi Kotkaniemi from the Montreal Canadiens.

Eventually, Marner opted to sign a six-year contract extension with the Toronto Maple Leafs and declined to sign an offer sheet with the Blue Jackets. 

Marner’s Career Year in a Contract Year

It’s now been six seasons, and Marner is once again on the market. This time around, though, he is 28 years old and will become an unrestricted free agent for the first time in his career. This season, the Markham, Ontario native had multiple career-highs in offensive production. He narrowly missed out on reaching the 30-goal mark for the third time in his career, but instead set career-highs in assists (75), game-winning goals (seven), and points (102).

By all accounts, Marner had a career year for the Maple Leafs, even by his own high standards. It couldn’t have happened at a worse time for teams looking to inquire about his services this summer, though, as an already astronomical market value has skyrocketed even further as a result. 

Marner’s next contract, especially if it comes on the open market rather than re-signing with Toronto, will be one of the richest in the NHL. While it’s hard to imagine he’ll eclipse the current largest average annual value (AAV), which belongs to his Maple Leafs teammate Auston Matthews, it’s not impossible. It’s likely, at the very least, he could very well become the fourth player in the league to demand upwards of $12 million. It’s also important to note, the majority of the ten largest contracts in the NHL are seven or eight-year deals. Signing Marner for seven years would take him until 35 years of age, which could make a potential contract age very poorly.

Options for the Blue Jackets

Cap space certainly isn’t an issue for the Blue Jackets, who are projected to have more than $40 million of available space this July, however, they also can’t be spending it wildly either. Signing a long-term contract for a player like Marner could help elevate the team to the next level if Waddell feels they’re ready to be a consistent playoff team. However, it could just as easily anchor the team down as he approaches the wrong side of 30 and beyond. 

On the positive side of things, signing Marner would undoubtedly give the Blue Jackets two very dangerous lines at the top of their lineup. If Dmitri Voronkov and Kirill Marchenko were slotted back in alongside Sean Monahan on the first line, it would allow Marner to play alongside the two up-and-comers, Kent Johnson and Adam Fantilli. While that seems great on paper, it could present an issue when those two forwards are due for pay raises of their own in the near future.

One important thing to note, though, is that offense was far from an issue for the Blue Jackets this season. They finished eighth in the league in goals for; as a result, it’s easy to question whether or not that cap space would be better allocated by bringing in someone to help keep the puck out of their own net.

Ivan Provorov and Dante Fabbro still need to be signed to extensions on the blue line, while they could also look to add someone like Aaron Ekblad or Dmitri Orlov to help solidify things defensively. Theoretically, it would be possible to sign both Marner and a defenseman while also retaining Provorov and Fabbro, but things would quickly become very tight to the salary cap. 

While it goes without saying, Marner would be a phenomenal addition to the Blue Jackets’ forward core for the foreseeable future, there is a substantial risk that comes with signing any player nearing the age of 30 to a long-term contract, which would definitely be necessary in this case. Addressing needs at a lower cost will likely be the wiser approach under these circumstances, even if it means ignoring the biggest fish in the pond.

This article first appeared on The Hockey Writers and was syndicated with permission.

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