Blue Jackets’ Trends 30 Games into 2025-26 Season

This has been a bit of a theme this season with goaltenders playing lights out against them. Logan Thompson held the Blue Jackets to two total goals in three games played. Brandon Bussi held them to just a single power-play goal on Tuesday.

Looking at the stats, Zach Werenski is still a point per game player and well on his way to being in the Norris Trophy conversation. Kirill Marchenko is at 25 points in 26 games which is about where many expected him to be to this point.

Dmitri Voronkov and Adam Fantilli lead the Blue Jackets with 11 goals each which is a 30-goal pace over 82 games. With these four players producing, why the drop in offense?

Taking a look further down the roster, the picture becomes clearer. Sean Monahan’s production has dropped. He was at a point per game pace at the start of last season. He’s at 17 points in his first 30 games this season. He has played a lot of this season banged up in fairness.

The biggest drop has been Kent Johnson. He has just 3-3-6 in 29 games. He was healthy scratched in Seattle. For comparison sake, he had 24 points in his first 29 games last season. The lack of a consistent second line behind Fantilli’s line has impacted them so far in 2025-26.

That even includes contributions from their new players Charlie Coyle and Miles Wood. Coyle’s 19 points and Wood’s eight goals have helped the Blue Jackets stay in the race while the offense at large continues to be worked through.

Captain Boone Jenner should be back soon. Mathieu Olivier will eventually be back. The Blue Jackets need to use this next stretch to find their offense from last season. Specifically, they need to consider if they should reunite Monahan with Voronkov and Marchenko as they were one of the best lines when together. No matter who’s at center, they need to find a consistent second line.

Defense Slightly Worse

In 2024-25, the Blue Jackets defense gave up 3.26 goals per game. That was eighth worst in the NHL. This season, that number is at 3.40 goals per game allowed. That’s seventh-worst in the NHL.

We’ll address the goaltending in the next section. But here, there hasn’t been the kind of improvement the Blue Jackets hoped they’d get.

Two trends stick out. The Blue Jackets allow 31.5 shots on goal per game. They’re also a -17 goal differential in the third period. Both are the worst marks in the NHL.

The Blue Jackets are positive goal differential in both the first and second periods. It points to an issue being able to close game out.

Tuesday marked the ninth time this season the Blue Jackets held a lead in a game only to eventually lose. One trend I’ve noticed on tape. The ability to handle pressure at both ends of the ice has been something the team seems to be struggling with.

Teams behind in the third period will naturally push. The Blue Jackets haven’t consistently been able to stop opponents from flipping the game thanks to the extra pressure they put on.

But then, teams also pressure the Blue Jackets’ puck carriers into turnovers and mistakes. That inability to handle pressure puts the defense in a tough spot.

A couple questions to consider. Are the Blue Jackets not able to adjust later in games when the opposition has time to see what they’re doing? Is the system itself not working later in games? They can get leads. They can’t hold on to them.

Allowing 31-32 shots a night is not a good, winning recipe. The Blue Jackets need to do a better job of shot suppression. They also need to lock things down later in games.

Goaltending Situation

In the first 30 games, the Blue Jackets started Jet Greaves 60% of the time and Elvis Merzlikins 40% of the time. While that’s a reasonable split on paper, the results show a clear story.

Greaves has been the much better goaltender in 2025-26.

The Blue Jackets will ultimately need both goalies to play well in order to stay in the race. But these numbers cannot be ignored.

Greaves saved 1.9 goals above expected Tuesday night in Carolina. He’s up to 14.9 goals saved above expected in 18 games per Moneypuck. That figure is sixth-best in the NHL. The five ahead of him could all be in the Vezina Trophy conversation. Those are Logan Thompson, Ilya Sorokin, Jeremy Swayman, Igor Shesterkin and Spencer Knight.

Greaves is doing this facing the most shots in the NHL. He’s also doing it with limited run support.

In Greaves’ 18 starts, he’s getting 2.33 goals of support per game (42 goals in 18 games.) Conversely, the Blue Jackets average 4.08 goals per game when Merzlikins start (49 goals in 12 games.) The Blue Jackets have been held to one goal or fewer in seven of Greaves’ 18 games.

In terms of goals saved above expected, Merzlikins -1.1 for the season ranks him 41st in the NHL for goalies who have played at least 10 games.

Here are the numbers for the two goalies after 30 games.

• Greaves: 7-6-5, 2.73 GAA, .906 save percentage.
• Merzlikins: 6-5-1, 3.87 GAA, .885 save percentage.

Couple things. First, if Greaves got the same kind of offensive support Merzlikins got, the Blue Jackets would be higher in the standings. Second, Merzlikins has been good at different points this season. But when it’s gone south, it hasn’t been pretty.

The Blue Jackets need both guys this season. But based on these numbers, it’s clear Greaves deserves a majority of the starts. We’ll see if the team trends that way moving forward.

Final Thoughts

The Blue Jackets are five points better in the standings this season than they were last Dec 10. Even despite some disturbing trends, they are doing some things well to keep them in the race.

The Blue Jackets are a better road team this season. They have seven wins in 2025-26 as opposed to just four this time last year. It’s been a road heavy schedule to start this season. Home cooking could be what’s needed.

The Blue Jackets are getting leads in games. It shows they are doing some things right at the start of games.

Everyone in the Metro is playing well enough too. This has put the Blue Jackets last in the division. Going 2-6-2 against the Metro is another area that must improve especially given how close everyone is.

The Blue Jackets are getting to overtime more. They’re 4-1 in the shootout in 2025-26. Gaining 17 of a possible 22 points in games past regulation has kept them afloat.

The Blue Jackets are in the race. They also have a lot of trends that need to reverse course too. Let’s see what the next 30 have in store for us.