Brad Treliving’s trade deadline failure: A Kyle Dubas retrospective

The 2025–26 NHL trade deadline has passed, and the Toronto Maple Leafs made some changes. In my opinion, the moves were not nearly enough. The Leafs are in free fall to the basement of the league, and what was supposed to be a promising future in 2016 is now riddled with failure and pessimism.

Many fans wanted Shanahan and Dubas to be fired due to the lack of playoff success. And rightfully so. However, is Treliving faring any better? Does Dubas’ tenure look any different after this trade deadline? Let’s take a look.

Contract negotiations

There is no doubt that the one thing that has hamstrung the potential of this Leafs team was the superstar contracts. After Dubas signed John Tavares to a mammoth seven-year, $11M AAV contract, this no doubt caused “contract inflation” on the Leafs. Post ELC, Dubas signed Mitch Marner to a 6-year, $10.90M AAV contract, William Nylander to a 6-year, $6.96M AAV contract, and Auston Matthews to a five-year, $11.64M AAV contract. Not even max term either.

I can understand the argument that the COVID-19 pandemic caused the salary cap to flatline. I can understand the argument that John Tavares is a once-in-a-lifetime free agent that you don’t pass up. Stats-wise, you can make the argument that the four players produced within a “superstar” range (excluding the playoffs). 

However, it doesn’t excuse the fact that no other NHL team has done anything remotely similar to what the Leafs did. The only contract that you can argue was “team-friendly” was Nylander’s. But even then, at the time, it was beyond any comparable contract.

On the flip side, generally, Brad Treliving’s contracts have been good. Bobby McMann’s two-year, $1.35M AAV was amazing. John Tavares’ four-year, $4.39M AAV contract is a steal based on comparables. Matthew Knies’ six-year, $7.75M AAV contract is decent for his potential. Even Nylander’s eight-year, $11.5M AAV contract is “reasonable” (doesn’t mean we had to sign him).

Overall, it is hard to be mad at the majority of Treliving’s contracts, except maybe the Chris Tanev deal. I think under Treliving, the contracts have been more reasonable than Dubas’ contracts. But where Treliving falls short is in trade negotiations.

Trade negotiations

Kyle Dubas made some bad trades, such as trading a first-round pick for Nick Foligno. The Nazem Kadri trade to the Colorado Avalanche, which saw Tyson Barrie returned as the main piece, was a flop. 

However, he made some good trades, such as the Jake Muzzin, Jake McCabe, and Ryan O’Reilly trades. I will give Dubas credit; he actively sought seismic trades to try to address areas of need. Brad Treliving hasn’t made as many impactful moves.

Furthermore, given the inflated contracts of the superstars (a problem Dubas created), Dubas was able to find serviceable “bargain-bin” players such as Michael Bunting, Ilya Mikheyev, and Zach Hyman. Given that the bottom-six were nowhere close to the bottom-six of a contender, I think he failed in this regard. But from an asset management perspective, I think he was better at finding “gems” than Treliving.

General manager Brad Treliving was supposed to fix “the mess” that Brendan Shanahan and Kyle Dubas created. However, this season, the Leafs are going to miss the playoffs for the first time in a decade. This makes this season a retool season, and makes the 2025–26 NHL trade deadline perhaps the most critical deadline in this era of Leafs hockey. 

And Brad Treliving failed. Miserably.

The 2025–26 NHL trade deadline

McMann was having a breakout season, scoring 19 goals, 13 assists for 32 points in 60 games with the Leafs. He is two points away from his career high in 14 fewer games. McMann plays a speed game, uses his size to protect the puck, and can score goals. On a contending team, he probably slots in on a third line, taking shifts on the second line.

When McMann was traded to the Seattle Kraken at the eleventh hour, Leafs fans were expecting a first-round pick or a decent prospect in return. Instead, the Leafs got a second-round pick in 2027 and a fourth-round pick in 2026. Not the return the Leafs were expecting.

The more egregious trade was sending Scott Laughton to the Los Angeles Kings for a conditional third-round pick in 2026. What makes this trade worse is that the cost to acquire Laughton cost the Leafs Nikita Grebenkin (a decent prospect) and a first-round pick. So effectively, Treliving traded a first, Grebenkin, and a year and a half of Laughton for some mid-round picks.

To Treliving’s credit, getting a first-round pick for Nicolas Roy before the deadline was a tidy piece of business. However, this should not detract from the failure to capitalize on other assets. 

Oliver Ekman–Larsson, who is having a career year and whose value is not going to be higher, was sat out for trade purposes. Treliving failed to capitalize. The Leafs’ surplus in goaltending, or other expiring players such as Calle Jarnkrok, could have netted some assets to use in the offseason. Yet, Treliving failed to capitalize.

Where do we go from here?

The Leafs are not bad enough to land in the bottom five, but not good enough to make the playoffs. They’re mid. Good thing they have a top-10 protected first-round pick in this year’s NHL draft… Oh wait.

To make matters worse, the Brandon Carlo trade at last year’s trade deadline was a flop that cost the Leafs Fraser Minten and a first-round pick. The rumour is that Treliving wanted Rasmus Andersson, but when that wasn’t going to work, he pivoted to the Boston Bruins for Carlo. 

Normally, picks are top-10 protected, but Boston, being good at negotiations, made it only top-5 protected because Treliving missed out on Andersson. The result is that the Leafs are likely going to forfeit a decent pick this year.

I think the criticism that Dubas received as the Leafs’ general manager was warranted. Keep in mind, it’s pretty clear that Dubas would have moved off of Marner and/or Nylander before being let go. But I can’t help but wonder what he would have done for the Leafs at this trade deadline. Dubas often completed the big trades ahead of the deadline (instead of waiting until the last minute, as Treliving does).

Unfortunately, Treliving turned the trade chips into minimal assets, did not move everyone he needed to move, and the Leafs are likely not finishing in the bottom five. They’re in purgatory and are going to be here for a while.