Breaking Down Norris Trophy Candidates

Dahlin will win a Norris Trophy at some point in his career, so why not this year? The captain of the Buffalo Sabres had an excellent 2024-2025, recording 17 goals and 68 points in 73 games while averaging 24:14 minutes of ice time per contest. He finished fourth among all NHL defensemen in scoring and also finished third in 5-on-5 scoring among defensemen with 38.

Dahlin also managed to help the Sabres competitive at even strength when he was on the ice, something Buffalo struggled to do otherwise. According to MoneyPuck, the Sabres generated 58.3% of the goals scored with Dahlin on the ice. They also generated the majority of shots on goal and scoring chances when Dahlin was playing. The on ice expected goals percentage with Dahlin on the ice was 55.7%, but dipped to 43.3% with him on the bench.

The staggering effect Dahlin has on the Sabres’ performance and production is what gives him a legitimate chance to claim the Norris in 2026. He’ll have to be exceptional to generate the buzz and attention needed to surpass Makar, but he’s primed for the biggest campaign of his NHL career.

Quinn Hughes - Vancouver Canucks

A former Norris Trophy winner already, Quinn Hughes is just a season removed from leading the NHL’s defensemen in scoring. He followed up his award-winning campaign with 76 points last year in a disappointing overall year for the Vancouver Canucks. Still, he’s in the prime of his career and is one of the best point-producing defenders in the NHL.

Using the same relative expected goals data from MoneyPuck, Hughes’ impact on the Canucks becomes glaringly obvious. With Hughes on the ice at even strength last season, the Canucks generated 61.1% of the expected goals, but produced a paltry 38.3% of the expected goals with Hughes off the ice. That’s sure to continue in the upcoming season and will put Hughes in the mix for his second Norris Trophy.

Shea Theodore - Vegas Golden Knights

Shea Theodore is tasked with anchoring the defense of the Vegas Golden Knights with the absence of Stanley Cup champion Alex Pietrangelo. Now, Theodore will take on even more responsibility as the top defender in Sin City.

Theodore is coming off the sixth consecutive season surpassing the 40-point mark. He recorded seven goals and added 50 assists for 57 points in 67 games while averaging 22 minutes of ice time. If he can stay healthy and continue on that same point pace, he could hit the 70-point mark for the first time and at least hit the 60-point threshold.

In the hunt:
Adam Fox - New York Rangers
Lane Hutson - Montreal Canadiens
Jaccob Slavin - Carolina Hurricanes

Many players deserve to be considered, but these three stand out as the top contenders to jump into the conversation. Lane Hutson was the rookie of the year for the Montreal Canadiens, and if he takes another step he might become a top-five defender in the NHL. Jaccob Slavin is the top two-way defender in the league, and while he continues to be overlooked when it comes to individual accolades, his impact on the Carolina Hurricanes cannot be overstated.

The wild card here is Adam Fox of the New York Rangers. The hiring of new head coach Mike Sullivan could unlock Fox’s game and enter him back into the elite defenseman category.