Breaking Down The Future Of The Penguins’ Goaltending

Penguins general manager Kyle Dubas faced a major challenge last year, juggling two inconsistent yet talented goaltenders on his roster while desperately needing stability. He knew he had a promising prospect in Sergey Murashov, but the young player needed time in the minors to develop, which meant Dubas had to rely on temporary solutions.

Those stopgaps have become Stuart Skinner and Arturs Silovs, who have formed a tandem that isn’t spectacular but has been enough to keep the Penguins in the playoff hunt despite some bumps in the road. As both contribute fairly evenly, with a rookie netminder waiting in the wings, this has created an interesting dynamic in the Penguins’ crease, potentially leading to some roster moves this summer.

One year ago, the Penguins had Tristan Jarry and Alex Nedeljkovic as their goaltenders, earning a combined $7.875MM per season. Jarry, in particular, was earning $5.375MM and had three years remaining on his contract.

Dubas started the summer by trading Nedeljkovic to the Sharks for a third-round pick on July 1. Many questioned whether Pittsburgh believed that another goalie prospect, Joel Blomqvist, was ready to be an NHL backup, but Dubas quickly dismissed this idea by acquiring Silovs from the Canucks for a fourth-round pick and a prospect. Since Silovs had to clear waivers in Vancouver, they would have to let him go for free, effectively making it a discount. The trade meant Pittsburgh would begin the season with Jarry as the starter and Silovs as the backup.

Jarry actually started the season quite well for Pittsburgh, posting a 9-3-1 record with a .909 SV% and a 2.66 GAA. This beginning had Penguins fans calling for Dubas to act and trade Jarry to another team, even though his play was decent.

Dubas did just that, trading Jarry and his overpriced contract to the Oilers in exchange for Stuart Skinner, Brett Kulak, and a second-round pick. The move was a surprising development since Pittsburgh retained none of Jarry’s contract, and it involved moving a player who had been on waivers the previous year.

It marked a turning point for Pittsburgh, as they effectively moved on from the volatility of Jarry and Nedeljkovic in favor of what amounts to average goaltending. Now, the Penguins face some decisions heading into the summer, as Skinner is a UFA on July 1 and Silovs is an RFA. It’s almost certain that Pittsburgh will retain Silovs and keep him in the fold, but Skinner is far less of a certainty.

AFP Analytics is projecting a two-year deal for the 27-year-old Skinner worth $3.86MM per season, but given the thin free-agent market and the lack of potential starters, that projection and term seem quite light. At $3.86MM, Pittsburgh would likely be in line to retain him and let Murashov develop in the AHL, but it’s unlikely Skinner would accept that deal now, considering he has plenty of leverage.

That’s where it gets interesting for the Penguins: if they let Skinner walk, they have his potential replacement waiting in the wings. But do they need to wait for Murashov, or is he the guy next year?

If the Penguins decide to make Murashov a full-time NHL player next season, do they trust that Silovs can step up and handle most of the starts? The 25-year-old Silovs has a projected AAV of $2.033MM on a one-year deal, which makes sense since he has shown he can play in the NHL this season, but he hasn’t proven he can be a consistent starter.

Silovs is 16-10-8 this year with an .890 SV% and a 2.98 GAA. Those stats don’t exactly scream consistency, but they are a noticeable improvement over his numbers with Vancouver when he was with the Canucks, and given his age, he can still improve.

Still, can the Penguins rely on him to be a full-time NHL backup behind an inexperienced rookie next season? It’s hard to say for certain, but Silovs’ underlying numbers don’t exactly indicate he’s a sure thing as a starter, and there’s no guarantee Murashov can play 50 games next season — in fact, there’s a good chance he won’t.

So, should Pittsburgh keep Skinner and Silovs and retain Murashov in the AHL? In an ideal world, yes, they’d hold onto both netminders for the next year or two, with Murashov excelling in the AHL, and then the Penguins would promote Murashov full-time.

However, Skinner will likely seek every year and dollar he can get, considering his career has been quite unstable so far, and it might be his best shot at becoming a very wealthy man. This means Pittsburgh has to decide if it’s Murashov or someone else.

It’s not ideal for the Penguins, as they probably don’t have a clear sense if Murashov’s ready to be the guy yet, and they aren’t likely to commit to anyone in free agency, nor could they even if they wanted to give the poor free agent market for goaltenders, so it really comes down to Murashov or Skinner being the guy next season with Silovs as their backup.

The most likely scenario is that Pittsburgh will offer Skinner a short-term deal to bridge the gap until Murashov becomes a full-time NHL player, while allowing both players to share duties in the NHL if Murashov is set to play full-time. Contractually, this would likely be a short-term deal in the $4MM–$5MM a year range.

Would this be enough to persuade Skinner to forgo free agency? Not likely, but if Skinner enters the market and doesn’t receive the salary he’s hoping for, he and the Penguins could revisit negotiations. However, he might also receive a lucrative offer from another NHL team, leading him to leave Pittsburgh, which could put Dubas in a tough spot.