Breaking down why Craig Berube might be on the hot seat in Toronto

The Toronto Maple Leafs are coming off two ugly losses, with a record of 8–7–1 through the first 16 games of the season. To quote head coach Craig Berube after the 5–4 loss against the Carolina Hurricanes, “Pretty much the season is, we don’t value the defensive side of the puck enough.”

However, as throughout the Matthews era, the team has been known to start slow. Usually, October isn’t good for the Leafs, but November is when the team begins to play better. However, why is there a sense of panic among fans? Has Craig Berube lost the room after only two years?

Craig Berube’s coaching style

When Craig Berube was brought in to take over from Sheldon Keefe for the 2024–25 season, many fans, including me, were happy. Keefe clearly lost the room, and we have seen enough “Keefe” playoff hockey to see that it doesn’t work with this group.

However, as with Mike Babcock before him, we saw the same signs that perhaps this core isn’t it. Nevertheless, Craig Berube won a Stanley Cup in 2019 with the St. Louis Blues, much more recently than Babcock. That 2019 team also did not have the star power of the Leafs. There was no Auston Matthews, William Nylander, Mitch Marner, or John Tavares.

However, what we saw from that 2019 Blues team was the competitive and winning spirit. Something that the Matthews era has lacked up until that point, and this is why fans were excited for Berube: a culture change.

Last season, while the Leafs lost to the eventual Stanley Cup Champions, the Florida Panthers, there were some encouraging signs that the culture was starting to change. The Leafs were overall more tenacious and could win one-goal games. The Leafs back checked and forechecked consistently, and dumped and chased, a style polar opposite to their previous system.

Along with solid goaltending, the Leafs looked like a different team under Craig Berube. The team made a push at the end of the year to win the Atlantic Division, their first division win since the 1999–00 season (excluding the COVID season).

Are we seeing the “step back”?

The Leafs are without homegrown superstar Mitch Marner this season. As a result, many fans were expecting the Leafs to take a step back, and that is fine. After all, the Leafs would have to modify their system, given that Marner is no longer on the team. So far, the Leafs have looked slow; they don’t hit as much, nor do they play the same aggressive game they did last year.

We have also seen goaltending take a dip this year. Anthony Stolarz has a .889 save percentage, which is way off from the league-leading .926 that he posted last season. Stolarz has played 12 games already, which is 35% of the games he started last season. We are not even a quarter of the way through the season.

Fortunately, Joseph Woll seems close to returning to action after an extended leave of absence. However, we know the issues stem further than goaltending. We don’t have any reason to doubt that goaltending will return to form. We have little reason to doubt that the Leafs are not going to play the same way they have played every year in the last decade.

I have no qualms if the Leafs take a step back if it means they become the team we all know and want them to be. Adversity usually breeds success. However, the play in recent weeks has been nothing short of abysmal. If they are not listening to the coaching staff, what should the Leafs do?

Should Craig Berube be fired?

Should Berube be fired? I honestly think it’s very premature to have this conversation. If it wasn’t Berube, then it would’ve been another coach that the Leafs would not commit to. As I have said before, the one player who can change the course is Auston Matthews. If Matthews plays the game how Berube wants and starts holding his teammates accountable, then the culture will change. The team will go as far as Matthews takes them.

I have written before about how the team has the infamous “blue and white disease.” Their recent play seems to be indicative that they’re happy with their salaries and are comfortable. The fact that the Leafs are on their third head coach, their third general manager, and their 99th wholesale coaching staff change speaks to what the issue is, loud and clear.

It’s that the Leafs’ players are not fully committed to executing Berube’s system. Berube’s system forces the Leafs to play a tougher brand of hockey. I think what we are seeing is a product of how this team has always been, and it is conflicting with how Berube wants them to play. 

At this point in the Matthews era timeline, they are supposed to be a grizzled veteran team that uses their experience to beat their opponent. However, we know this isn’t to be the case, at least right now. I think what we are seeing is the “step back,” and the Leafs are at the breaking point in their culture change.