Bye weeks: How they help and which NHL teams use them best

The NHL also provided data on team performance across the previous four seasons of bye weeks and, more specifically, on what happened in the games immediately following the breaks. Do bye weeks leave teams refreshed and sharp or sluggish and sloppy?

Fascinatingly, the league as a whole tends to drag its feet immediately coming out of the byes. Between 2016-17 and 2019-20, teams went a combined 48-53-22 in their first games after byes, but examining teams’ first three games following byes paints a different picture. The four years of data gave us 12 games per team with the exception of the Vegas Golden Knights, who weren’t active yet in 2016-17 and thus have three years and nine games of post-bye experience. It turns out 19 of 31 teams had points percentages of .500 or better in their first three games post-bye. Some teams have been downright dominant. A full breakdown of post-bye standings is below. The Seattle Kraken aren’t listed as they of course didn’t play in the NHL yet when byes were previously present.

First three games after bye, 2016-17 to 2019-20

Before we galaxy brain the results too much: Overall team quality has plenty of correlation here. Between 2016-17 and 2019-20, the Leafs, Bruins, Predators, Jets and Lightning ranked top 10 in the league in total wins, so it makes sense to see them also crack the top 10 post-bye. Not only are better teams simply going to win more on either side of a bye, but they’ll emerge from their byes with plenty to play for.

“We’ve had good teams over the course of that time, so you’re coming out of a bye week ready for the playoff run, you’re excited to get back, you know there’s lots of important hockey games coming up, so you feel the sense of urgency coming out of the break,” said Maple Leafs left winger Alexander Kerfoot.

Consequently, the Kings, Coyotes, Senators, Sabres and Red Wings were bottom 10 in total wins over those four seasons, so it’s not exactly staggering to learn that they stumbled coming out of their bye weeks.

But team quality doesn’t explain everything. How is it the Leafs owned the first three games after the bye to the point they never lost in regulation across four seasons? How were middling teams like the Sharks and Flyers so dominant post-byes?

Kerfoot uses the disclaimer that he doesn’t believe the Leafs have done anything different from their opponents. To a man, to a team, much of the bye is about rest and getting away with friends, family or teammates. In his mind, the mental component is crucial for a team in a playoff hunt.

“It’s a long season, and you relish the opportunity to get away for a little bit,” Kerfoot said. “Especially at this time of year when you’re 50 some-odd games into the season, you’ve really been grinding for a long time. It’s nice to get a little mental break and reset.”

Perhaps the better a team is at completely unplugging, the better it fares coming out of the bye. It’s arguably a good sign that Leafs right winger Mitch Marner told Daily Faceoff he barely remembers what the takeaways were coming out of the 2019-20 bye. Maybe the mind goes blank from the mental reset. Though for Marner – whose bye will be shortened by a trip to the All-Star Game – the physical rest is just as important as the mental.

“Time to go relax and refresh and make sure you’re body’s ready for the second half,” Marner said. “It gets really, really competitive, and you try to start really psyching yourself up for what’s going to come in the final months."

Still – it’s not like the Leafs are the only team experiencing the recharge. How have they maximized the break? One theory: Geography has something to do with post-bye performance.

“Maybe there’s something to be said for, you’re leaving a Toronto winter and you get some sun and you feel good coming back,” Kerfoot said. “Whereas maybe the break isn’t the same for teams in warm weather climates. But you can do your own research on that (laughs).”

Challenge accepted. Of the 17 teams with winning records coming out of the bye, 15 come from cold-weather climates or in borderline markets like Dallas or Nashville, at least cities that have a semblance of winter. Six of the 14 teams with .500 records or worse, or 43 percent, came from warm climates. Put differently: If we count the “warm winter” markets as San Jose, Tampa Bay, Vegas, Florida, Anaheim, Carolina, Arizona and Los Angeles, just two of eight had winning records in the first three games post-bye.

So maybe not all fun in the sun is created equal. If you’re already a good team with a lot to play for, and you play in a cold market from which a vacation feels like a real change, you arguably have the best odds of emerging from the break with momentum. That’s what the numbers say.