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Calgary Flames 2026-27 Player Projections: Connor Zary

Connor Zary, Calgary Flames (Jess Starr/The Hockey Writers)

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Calgary Flames 2026-27 Player Projections: Connor Zary

Originally posted on The Hockey Writers
By Jeremy Schouppe | Last updated Aug 21, 2026 12:25 PM ET

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Before the 2026–27 NHL season kicks off, we can take advantage of the dog days of summer and look at the expectations for the Calgary Flames and their roster. In this series, we’ll take a closer look at each player and provide a statistical projection based on past performance, expected role, and future opportunity.

I’ve blended two approaches here: one based on each player’s historical stats and the other based on the player’s share of the Flames’ overall production. Combining both numbers accounts for individual production and production relative to the team’s overall offensive output. The model uses three years of weighted data from the previous seasons (2025–26: 50%, 2024–25: 30%, 2023–24: 20%), giving the most recent seasons the greatest influence.

The variable part of these projections reflects adjustments for expected role changes and age. Players taking on greater or lesser responsibilities at even strength or on special teams will see those changes reflected. At the same time, age adjustments account for expected development or decline based on the stage of their career.

One last disclaimer: these projections are per game. Rather than predicting injuries, the goal is to estimate what each player can produce if they’re healthy all season.

With the methodology out of the way, here’s a look at Connor Zary and what to expect from him in 2026-27.

Connor Zary’s Baseline

Zary’s baseline is a bit misleading. His best season was his rookie campaign in 2023- 24, when he scored 34 points in 63 games. Since then, he has had two seasons failing to crack the 30-point mark, raising questions about the 2020 24th overall pick.

The reasons for this are complex. His rookie season may have set unfair development expectations, considering he spent tons of time playing with Nazem Kadri and Yegor Sharagovich, who were the Flames’ top goal scorers that season and earned Zary 11 primary assists, more than double that of each of the last two seasons.

Since that season, he has bounced around the lineup, sometimes playing in an impact role, sometimes a depth role with inept offensive talent and at other times he’s been a healthy scratch.

I don’t think the Flames have given Zary a fair chance to become a play-driving offensive weapon since his rookie season, which he was throughout his junior career with the Kamloops Blazers of the Western Hockey League.

But at the same time, it’s hard to argue he’s deserved a consistent opportunity, given some of his poor advanced micro stats, which have not been pretty throughout his career, struggling in chance creation and defensively. These are weaknesses that are exposed when you move a player up the lineup and play them in tougher matchups.

Even those numbers have to be taken with a grain of salt, though, considering that over the last two seasons, Zary has not played alongside much offensive talent, at least consistently. He has bounced around the lineup without getting a chance to build chemistry with many of his teammates. All that is to say, I don’t think we know where Zary’s baseline is yet. Sure, the stat lines have been underwhelming, but the numbers don’t match the talent that is visible when he’s on the ice.

Expected Role With Flames

The 2026-27 season needs to be a full audition, earning an impact role to a) either try to inflate his trade value or b) let him prove he is capable of being a full-time player in that role and be part of the Flames’ future.

That means playing him in the top-six and on one of the power-play units alongside one of the Flames’ very few talented goal-scoring options. Zary’s best traits are his ability to handle the puck and skate through the neutral zone; if he had linemates who were volume shooters who can play off the rush, as he does, it would be his best chance to break out. In my head, the best line combination is Mikael Backlund, Matthew Coronato, and Zary.

2026-27 Projection

Goals	Assists	Points	Expected Goals	Shots	Shot Attempts	Scoring Chances	High Danger Chances
13.11	24.76	37.87	13.03	107.49	195.27	118.13	64.09

I’m going to run with it, even if it’s the least confident I’ve been, and the models are too. The model running Zary’s historical stats per game has determined a low projection, at 13 goals and 25 points. In contrast, the model that accounts for Zary’s production relative to his role and team stats projects 12 goals and 50 points.

While that doesn’t build much confidence in what to expect from him this season, it does reflect how complicated his situation is. If given the chance, he could break out and quickly change the perception that he is an underperforming first-round pick. But the concerns that he will continue to be underwhelming are valid. With this one, we’ll have to wait and see.

This article first appeared on The Hockey Writers and was syndicated with permission.

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