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Calgary Flames 2026-27 Player Projections: Mikael Backlund

Mikael Backlund, Calgary Flames (Amy Irvin / The Hockey Writers)

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Calgary Flames 2026-27 Player Projections: Mikael Backlund

Originally posted on The Hockey Writers
By Jeremy Schouppe | Last updated Aug 26, 2026 9:45 AM ET

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The 2026–27 NHL season is quickly approaching. Before it kicks off, let’s take advantage of the dog days of summer and start looking ahead at expectations for the Calgary Flames and their roster.

In this series, we’ll take a closer look at each player individually and provide a statistical projection based on historical performance, expected role, and future opportunity.

I’ve blended two approaches when building these projections: one based solely on each player’s historical stats, and another based on each player’s historical share of the Flames’ overall production. Combining both methods accounts for what a player has produced individually and how they have produced relative to the team’s overall offensive output.

The model uses three years of weighted data from the previous seasons (2025–26: 50%, 2024–25: 30%, 2023–24: 20%), giving the most recent seasons the greatest influence.

The variable part of these projections reflects adjustments for expected role changes and age. Players taking on greater or lesser responsibilities at even strength or on special teams will see those changes reflected. At the same time, age adjustments account for expected development or decline based on each player’s career stage.

One last disclaimer: these projections are per-game. Rather than attempting to predict injuries, the goal is to estimate what each player can produce if they’re healthy for all 82 games.

With the methodology out of the way, let’s take a look at Mikael Backlund and what to expect from him throughout the 2026–27 season.

Backlund’s Baseline

Going into his 19th season in the NHL, it might be pointless to project Backlund’s stat line, because we’re at the point where you know what you are going to get from one of the most respected two-way centres across the league.

Over the last five years, he’s finished with 39 points twice, 43 last season, with outliers of 32 points in 2024-25 and 56 points in 2022-23. Outside of the box score, Backlund is as steady as they come; as a centre in the dot, you can count on him to win around 50% of his faceoffs. He’s responsible and active in the defensive zone.

He may not be the player he once was, with consistent 40- to nearly 50-point seasons. Still, he’s a hard-working, smart player who does the little things that make the game easier for his teammates, which has allowed him to remain effective and avoid a large drop in productivity as he’s aged.

Expected Role in 2026-27

Again this season, at 37, Backlund will be expected to play a big role with the Flames. Behind Morgan Frost, with Nazem Kadri being traded to the Colorado Avalanche last season, he’s easily the second most reliable centre on the team, and you could probably even debate that he is the best in that position.

Either way, he’ll be playing in a top-six role, eating a bunch of minutes on the penalty kill and will likely continue to live in the 17- to 19-minute range he has sat with the Flames since 2013-14.

The biggest question is how much of a role he will play on the power play. Could he be back on the second unit full time? Last season, he finished with his least power-play ice time since 2012-2013, excluding the COVID-shortened season. I think there’s potential for that with how few offensive options the Flames have this season.

He isn’t often praised for his playmaking, but last season, 23 of his 26 assists were primary assists. That isn’t a new trend either, with 55 of his 67 assists being primary over his last three seasons. He could be a stabilizer on what will probably be a chaotic second unit.

2026-27 Projection

Goals	Assists	Points	Expected Goals	Shots	Shot Attempts	Scoring Chances	High Danger Chances
15.14	27.52	42.66	19.50	176.41	336.65	154.41	75.17

With everything said above and after running the numbers, I’ve got Backlund having another season we’ve all come to expect from him.

Is this as productive a season as you’d like to see from your second, arguably best centre? No, probably not. Ideally, you’d like to see more of an offensive impact. However, that is more of an indictment of where the Flames are at, rather than a knock on Backlund’s game.

In a theoretical world where Backlund was traded to a Stanley Cup contender, he would be the ideal third-line, two-way pivot. His offensive production, combined with defensive reliability and prowess on the penalty kill, makes him a player any contender would love in that role.

But with him spending his entire career with the Flames after being drafted in the first round of the 2007 NHL Entry Draft, it’s hard to imagine him playing for any other team, but that’s a conversation for another time.

In 2026-27, I expect Backlund to be one of the Flames’ stability providers in what will likely be a very chaotic season.

This article first appeared on The Hockey Writers and was syndicated with permission.

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