Calgary Flames offer sheet targets: Noah Dobson

Dobson—age 25—is a smooth-skating two-way defenceman who was selected by the Islanders 12th overall at the 2018 NHL Draft. The pick with which he was drafted? It originally belonged to the Flames and was sent to the Islanders as part of the package to acquire Travis Hamonic. The Flames haven’t dealt with the Islanders since.

Noah Dobson’s on-ice production

Dobson spent one more season in the QMJHL after being drafted, playing 56 games split evenly between the Acadie-Bathurst Titan and the Rouyn-Noranda Huskies. He had just 16 points in 28 games for the Titan before exploding for 36 points in 28 games with the Huskies. He added 29 points in 20 playoff games for the Huskies, helping the team capture the QMJHL title and then its first Memorial Cup.

After a successful Junior career, Dobson cracked the Islanders’ lineup. He skated in 34 games as a 20-year-old in 2019–20—averaging 13:17 time on ice—and scored his first NHL goal while collecting seven points. The following year, he played in 46 of his team’s 56 games—the second pandemic-shortened season—averaging 16:24 TOI. He scored three goals and 14 points that year.

The 2021–22 season was a breakout campaign for Dobson. He played 80 games, averaging 21:28 TOI. The increased role also saw a significant jump in his production, as he scored a career-best 13 goals and 51 points. The following season was very similar: 78 games played, averaging 20:23 TOI with 13 goals and 49 points.

Last year, at age 24, Dobson’s ice time and production went nuclear. Through 79 games, he averaged a career-high 24:31 TOI, scoring 10 goals and a career-best 70 points. He also finished eighth in Norris Trophy voting. Like the rest of his team, though, Dobson’s production fell off a cliff this year. He averaged 23:16 TOI through 71 games and scored 10 goals and 39 points.

Compensation

The chart below details the required compensation based on the average annual value of the offer sheet made. It reflects the NHL’s updated thresholds for this year.

The Flames have both the cap space and the required compensation to sign Dobson to virtually any deal. I wouldn’t look at this season as an indication of what he is or what he deserves, as it’s an outlier in what has been a superb start to the young defenceman’s career.

The Minnesota Wild gave 21-year-old right-shot Brock Faber an eight-year, $8.5M AAV deal after a 47-point rookie season last July. They bought RFA years, though, whereas Dobson is selling UFA years. Not quite the same situation.

More recently, the Winnipeg Jets inked 29-year-old right-shot Neal Pionk to a six-year, $7.0M AAV deal. His career-high in points is 45 back in 2019–20. He hasn’t reached the 40-point plateau in any other season. This is Pionk’s big-ticket deal, so it doesn’t compare well to the deal Dobson will be signing.

A month prior to that signing, the Washington Capitals signed then-26-year-old left-shot Jakob Chychrun to an eight-year, $9.0M AAV deal six days before his 27th birthday. He was in the midst of what turned out to be a career-best 20-goal, 47-point season. This is a bit closer of a comparison than the other two, age-wise, but Dobson is a right-shot with a lot more offensive flair in his game.

The fact that Dobson can’t get that eighth year via an offer sheet will bring down the cost a bit, but the open market is often more expensive. Given these recent signings, it’s very difficult to envision Dobson signing for anything less than $10.0M a year.

Fit with the Flames

I’ll get straight to the point: the fit is not good. While the Flames have the draft capital and cap space to make it happen, that’s where things end. They don’t have the roster space, and they don’t have the guts to pull off this big of an offer sheet—I’ll get to that.

Dobson plays the right side, which is a position of strength for the Flames. They already have Rasmus Andersson—for now—and Brayden Pachal under contract. MacKenzie Weegar can play RD as well, but is typically a right-shot LD. However, the Flames’ pipeline is absolutely loaded with talented RD. Zayne Parekh. Hunter Brzustewicz. Henry Mews. Jake Boltmann. You get the picture.

Bringing in Dobson takes away a roster spot that one of these prospects can earn a few years down the line. Let’s be honest, if the Flames sign him, it’s not a short-term engagement, given the compensation they’ll have to pay.

I also said the Flames don’t have the guts to do it. That’s not a challenge, either. If the Flames want to sign Dobson for six or seven years, I seriously doubt that deal comes in a penny under $10.0M AAV. However, the NHL’s five-year rule would kick in. The offer sheet AAV is determined by the total value of the contract divided by the number of years, capped at five.

So, a seven-year, $70.0M deal ends up with a $14.0M AAV, and the compensation jumps up to four first-round picks. A six-year, $60.0M deal would have a $12.0M AAV and also cost four first-rounders. Not happening. Even any deal between ~$9.3M AAV and $11.7M AAV costs two firsts, a second, and a third. It’s still a very steep price that I can’t see the Flames paying.

Should the Flames offer sheet Dobson?

If you came here from X, I already know the answer. Some variation of “no.” Maybe a little more colourful. And I agree with you wholeheartedly. Dobson is an elite top-pairing defenceman, but it just doesn’t make sense with where the Flames are in their process right now.

This year is probably a one-off, and the Calgary-Dobson connection already revolves around the Flames giving up a 12th overall pick. Do we really want to see them give up a similar or even better pick? Worse yet, imagine giving up two or even four top-10 picks as compensation? That would be an unmitigated disaster for the organization.

Whatever the course is, the Flames need to stick to it. Let the kids develop and naturally take over from the veterans. Homegrown talent wins championships! That top-pairing RD slot is Zayne’s to lose.