In terms of expectations, our thought is this: Gridin is with Shawinigan to round out his game and prepare to be a pro. Worse case scenario, Gridin is there for two seasons (this season and 2025-26) and then goes to the AHL as a 20-year-old in 2026-27. If Gridin can continue to hone his offensive skills and round out his play away from the puck a bit, perhaps he can challenge for a spot in the NHL earlier than that.

Perhaps.

Exceeding expectations

When it comes to offensive players, we tend to focus on their production and output, which typically involves comparing their NHLe (NHL equivalent scoring amounts). Comparisons between leagues are tricky, but generally the USHL and QMJHL tend to have similar offensive outputs so their NHLe comparison coefficients are similar – players who scored at the same rate in the two leagues tend to have similar NHL scoring, too.

Anyway, Gridin’s scoring output in the USHL was about 1.4 points per game and he led that league in scoring last season. Expectations are high for him offensively because, well, he set a high standard and his body of work to date suggests that if he’s effective, he’s scoring. If he gets anything above 1.4 points per game, it’ll result in his NHLe increasing from last season’s torrid pace and that would exceed expectations given his circumstances.

Something that’ll be harder to suss out in the numbers, though: how well his two-way game is progressing. We’ll be paying attention to see how many of his points come at five-on-five. If that’s trending upward – and he’s relying on the power play less and less – that’ll be a nice value-add, too.

Meeting expectations

Gridin is a damn smart offensive player, but he’s playing in a new league and a new country, so it’s natural that there may be growing pains. If his overall offensive output is between a point per game and 1.4 points per game, that seems like it would be right in line with what he should be producing given his circumstances. The Q is a tough league, so if you can produce consistently every game, that’s pretty impressive.

In this scenario, we wouldn’t necessarily expect his two-way game to improve as he’s adapting to the Q’s nuances, so it wouldn’t be disappointing if the proportion of points he gets at five-on-five remains fairly stable throughout the season.

Below expectations

If Gridin’s point production dips below the point-per-game level on the season, that would be a bit of a step back for him, even in the context of all the changes he’s making this season. He’s shown the ability to adapt fairly rapidly in recent years, so his adaptation taking a bit longer than in the past would probably be below expectations given the circumstances.

What are your hopes for Matvei Gridin in his first season in the QMJHL? Do you think he can potentially challenge for an NHL job in 2025-26?