Can the Oilers expect 35-year-old Mattias Ekholm to be a top-pairing defenceman?

Typically, most age curve studies indicate that a defenceman’s peak years are often between ~25-29. But, Ekholm seems to defy these standard age curves. 

Ekholm is a player who has steadily and consistently improved over his career. He was consistently a fantastic top-four defenceman in Nashville, and has been even better in Edmonton. Both his offensive and defensive impacts have been extraordinary, to the point that his net two-way impact (RAPM xG ±) ranks second among all defencemen throughout the past three seasons, even slightly higher than Evan Bouchard’s (!). Simply put, these results are elite, and the fact that they have sustained in both Nashville and Edmonton strongly suggests that these results aren’t just some byproduct of playing next to McDavid or Draisaitl; this is truly reflective of his ability.

Now, looking into Ekholm’s raw results, he did see a decline towards the second half of 2024-25, particularly in the month of February. With Ekholm on-ice during that month, the Oilers were out-scored at a horrendous ratio of 1 to 11, and his high-danger chance share of 40 percent was also far from pretty. However, it must be mentioned that it was around late January / early February when it was reported that Ekholm was playing through an illness. Furthermore, Ekholm boasted a fantastic 63 percent expected goal share in January, and a 67 percent expected goal share in the few games he played in March. Thus, it’s quite reasonable to say that his play in February is an outlier and can be attributed to his illness.

Let’s dive even deeper into Ekholm’s play. Per AllThreeZones, here are Ekholm’s microstats from 2024-25:

One thing that immediately stands out in this graph is Ekholm’s entry defence results.

Now, as players enter their mid-to-late thirties, one aspect of their game that immediately tends to see a dip is their foot speed. For defencemen, this can often result in a significant decline in their rush defence. One notable example that most Oilers fans should recall is Duncan Keith, who ranked as the NHL’s worst defender at suppressing scoring chances off the rush in his final two years at ages 38-39.

But that doesn’t seem to be the case for Ekholm, who has not only not seen a decline in his rush defending, but ranks as one of the best rush defenders in the NHL. His outstanding entry denial percentage of 17.2 percent this past season ranked 7th among all defenders in 2024-25.

While Ekholm’s foot speed at this stage of his career isn’t exactly awe-inspiring, he more than makes up for it with his defensive smarts. He is absolutely one of the most intelligent defencemen in the league, and his ability to consistently limit space and time at the blueline against some of the best rush attackers in the league is direct evidence of this.

As for the rest of Ekholm’s game, it is worth noting that his zone exit numbers were rather unimpressive this past season. Ekholm did see a slight offensive decline in 2024-25, so this is perhaps a reason why. Still, it should be noted that Ekholm has most often played next to Evan Bouchard, who does the heavy lifting in terms of breakout passing on this pair. So perhaps Ekholm’s zone exit results are a reflection of his role rather than his ability; Bouchard is the one who primarily facilitates the offensive breakout, while Ekholm tends to be the guy who busts the cycle and gets Bouchard the puck, while also clearing the puck out of the zone when needed. Ekholm’s solid retrieval success rate is a good sign, though his exit success rate could and should be higher.

All in all, there seems to be no visible sign of any regression in Ekholm’s overall play. If anything, his defensive impacts in 2024-25 actually improved compared to the prior season despite dealing with injuries/illnesses over the course of the season. Furthermore, his two-way impacts this season, at age 34-35, are better than they were three years ago. Very encouraging signs.

Now, we’ve mostly discussed Ekholm’s regular-season play thus far in this article. What about the 2025 playoffs?

As mentioned earlier, Ekholm returned in Game 5 of the Western Conference Finals against the Dallas Stars, and played in all six of Edmonton’s Stanley Cup Final games, so seven playoff games in total. At a raw glance, his box score totals were pretty solid, as Ekholm accumulated 6 points in those 7 games as a defenceman.

But there was quite some discussion regarding Ekholm’s play in the final two games of the cup finals. In Edmonton’s 5-2 loss in Game 5, Ekholm was brutally burnt off the rush by Marchand, leading to Florida’s first goal, and then a failed zone entry in the neutral zone by Ekholm directly led to Florida’s second goal. Then, in the ultimate cup-clinching Game 6, Ekholm (and Bouchard)’s breakout mishap in the defensive zone directly led to Florida’s first goal. These mistakes at critical moments have sown doubt in some fans if this is the start of a permanent regression in Ekholm’s play.

Still, two things must be mentioned here. Firstly, it’s quite obvious that Ekholm was not at 100% in the playoffs, particularly considering the fact that there was a chance he wouldn’t have played at all. And secondly, in the Stanley Cup Finals, Ekholm held a 52 percent expected goal differential, ranking second among Edmonton’s skaters and first amongst their defencemen. His actual goal differential was a mediocre 45 percent, but it again ranked first amongst Edmonton’s defencemen.

So even though Ekholm’s mistakes were quite poor and came at critical moments, they were merely a few blemishes on otherwise solid play, especially relative to Edmonton’s other players and especially considering that Ekholm was, again, not fully healthy.

All things considered, whether Ekholm can continue to be a top-pairing defender for the Oilers will depend on the exact severity of his injury, which has yet to be fully disclosed publicly in detail. But his underlying numbers all suggest that, so far, there hasn’t really been any decline in Ekholm’s ability at all.

While regression is still sooner than later as he turns 36 next May, it is extremely reasonable to say that Ekholm will continue to be a quality top-four defender for the Oilers in 2025-26, if not fully sustaining his current results on the top-pair next to Evan Bouchard.