Canadiens Captain Selke Trophy Front Runner

The Montreal Canadiens are taking control of their playoff destiny with the regular season winding down. The Habs hold a six-point lead for the final Wild Card spot in the Eastern Conference and are winners of five consecutive contests.

The Canadiens simply would not be in this position without captain Nick Suzuki's incredible season. The 25-year-old center is leading the team on and off the ice and recently ended a nearly two decade long scoring drought in Montreal when he reached his 80th point of the season. His offensive game has reached new heights, but it's his defensive work that is pushing him toward superstardom. It's also why he deserves to be the front runner for this year's Selke Trophy.

Let's start with the easiest reason, his plus/minus. The maligned statistic is a polarizing one to lean on, but in Suzuki's case it is necessary to consider. Suzuki sports a +17 through 77 games. It's impressive on multiple fronts. Firstly, it's the first season he's collected a positive mark in this category.

Secondly, it's the opposite of his team's overall goal differential. The Habs have a goal differential of -17, the best it's been in over a month. That suggests that when Suzuki is on the ice, the Canadiens often outscore their opponents but are drowning defensively without him.

So, is the suggestion supported by further evidence? Overwhelmingly so.

Looking Suzuki's advanced statistics, what's clear is how dominant the Canadiens are in both puck possession and chance creation with him on the ice. According to MoneyPuck's data on Suzuki, the Canadiens have a goal differential of +48 when he's on the ice in all situations. They've also scored 62% of the all goals scored when he's on the ice. For comparison, his expected on ice goals percentage is just over 52%.

It's the same in every situation. According to Hockey Reference, the Canadiens have scored 80 even-strength goals with Suzuki on the ice and surrendered 60. This hammers home once again that this offensively needy Montreal team is consistently outscoring its opponents with Suzuki on the ice.

It also illustrates that Suzuki's defensive game can be summarized in one way: don't let your opponents have the puck. He and his linemates consistently force turnovers and control possession. Once they have possession, Suzuki is showing world-class offensive instincts, and the scoring is coming as a result.

The Canadiens' captain is not the physical, gritty forward that the Selke Trophy is often linked to. He's not Patrice Bergeron, who possessed a defensive IQ unmatched in the NHL. He's not an imposing player like former Vancouver Canucks legend Ryan Kesler, who could have easily been a rugged, stay-at-home defender during his NHL career.

But what Suzuki always does is cause trouble for opposing forwards. Matching up against other team's top offensive weapons, he frustrates them and forces them to play away from the puck. It's not the most traditional defensive masterclass, but it's enough to make Suzuki deserving of the Selke Trophy in 2025.