Canadiens, Dobes Face Avalanche with Point to Prove

Following an embarrassing 5-2 defeat on the part of Montembeault, the Canadiens had seemed decided on riding Jakub Dobes as their new No. 1 at that point. Sound familiar?

Canadiens Ride Dobes Again

After having bounced between two goalies to start the season, it was then the Canadiens gave Dobes four straight starts, which was an experiment that started out well enough but ended in disaster. He won the first two, against the Winnipeg Jets and Toronto Maple Leafs, but, in a second game in two nights, he lost to the St. Louis Blues.

The next game, a 6-1 trouncing against a shorthanded Tampa Bay Lightning team, in which Dobes got pulled, but Montembeault looked just as sievelike in relief, forced general manager Kent Hughes’ hand. The team called up forward Owen Beck, defenseman Adam Engstrom, and goalie Jacob Fowler, bringing a third goalie into the mix.

While Montembeault soon got sent down to the Laval Rocket in the American Hockey League, officially as a conditioning assignment, he returned to end the calendar year. At that point the Canadiens went with an ill-advised three-goalie rotation until just recently, when Fowler got sent back down to the AHL.

It was the right move, especially with Montembeault having started off fresh at 3-0-1, with a .914 save percentage (SV%). Since then, he’s gone 1-2, with one of .829, though. After his last start against the Boston Bruins, a 4-3 loss in which he gave up the game-tying and game-winning goals late within a span of 12 seconds of one another, the Canadiens played Dobes in their latest win over the Golden Knights, and now they will again against the Avalanche too, this time with a new goalie coach in tow, after the dismissal of Eric Raymond.

Canadiens Seek Stability in Net Heading into Olympic Break

The promotion of Marco Marciano from the Rocket (on an interim basis) may not change things, but, seeing as he seemed to have success resetting Montembeault’s game in December, anything’s worth trying, especially as the Canadiens look to avoid a second consecutive slump before a mid-season break in the regular-season schedule. However, going back to Montembeault right away is a recipe for disaster for all parties involved.

In 2024-25, before the 4 Nations Face-Off, the Canadiens went 1-7-1 to all but drop out of the playoff race. They obviously got back on track, shockingly earning the second Eastern Conference wild-card spot on the strength of five straight wins once the regular-season schedule resumed. They can’t count on that happening again, though.

Whereas Montembeault made the Canadian 4 Nations Face-Off team, admittedly as a goalie who never saw the ice, it looked as though a spot on the Canadian Olympic roster this year was his to lose. If that was indeed the case, he most certainly did, without the benefit of an inspired performance at the former tournament on which to fall, like Jordan Binnington of the St. Louis Blues, who’s actually struggling to an even larger extent, but that’s admittedly neither here nor there.

Wait to Play Montembeault Next in March

The Canadiens can’t afford to get caught up in a bad case of déjà vu, as much as wishful thinking might have them regain any lost momentum following the Olympic break in their minds. The situation is this: They’re a mediocre 4-4-1 in their last nine games Those four (regulation) losses have each come against Atlantic teams.

Whatever it’s worth, Dobes, who is 6-0-1 in his last seven games, hasn’t been in net for any of those losses. While his stretch of victories (and admittedly statistically average play with an .898 SV%) may come to an end against the Avalanche, they can’t go back to Montembeault against the Buffalo Sabres, against whom the Habs have lost twice in the last two weeks already, on Saturday.

In a perfect world (starting right now, because, let’s face it, nothing about the team’s goaltending is perfect), Dobes beats the Avalanche on Thursday to reinforce the team’s newfound faith in him, albeit as the lesser of two evils right now. That would force head coach Martin St. Louis to continue to go with him heading into the break. And, as the only goalie winning consistently right now, Dobes is their best option to avoid a slump right now.

No, exclusively playing Dobes down the stretch is another recipe for disaster. If you’re St. Louis, you’ve got to find a happy medium, ideally starting in March, with three sets of back-to-back games scheduled in the month’s first three weeks. However, until the break at least, a span of just four more games, you’ve got little choice but to play Dobes, regardless of how he fares against the Avalanche.

That may come across as defeatist, but Montembeault simply hasn’t been reliable in net, whereas Dobes has, excluding random one-offs like against the Avalanche in November and the aforementioned loss to the Blues, which represented his second game in two nights. That’s obviously the biggest difference going in the Canadiens’ favour against the Avalanche.

The Canadiens don’t play two games in two nights again until after the Olympics… and they’re (relatively) well-rested against the Avalanche. Whether that represents enough of an advantage, it’s hard to say, but Dobes gives them more of an advantage in net over Montembeault. That’s not as hard, based on a slew of empirical evidence.

As long as the Canadiens give Dobes a fair shake, effectively more of a benefit of the doubt they’ve been prone to giving Montembeault, they should be all right. Just “all right” in the sense they’d be getting league-average goaltending, which probably won’t get it done against the Avalanche, but, for a team like the Canadiens, who have high-octane offense, it should be enough, generally speaking.

Just look at his recent record… or even his record overall. Then look at Montembeault’s. It should be an easy decision.