Canadiens face decisions on two young players

Struble is under contract through the 2026–27 season at a manageable cap hit, giving Montreal cost certainty in a depth role. Xhekaj becomes a restricted free agent (RFA) this summer, which will likely force Montreal’s management team to decide whether he fits into the next phase or should be moved while his value remains.

What the numbers suggest

Advanced metrics shed light on the coaching staff’s reluctance to conclude the competition. Corsi, which measures the proportion of total shot attempts by a player’s team while he is on the ice, indicates that a percentage below 50 means opponents generate more attempts during that player’s shifts. Xhekaj’s career average is about 47 percent.

Xhekaj’s performance improves with offensive-zone starts and limited minutes. However, when his responsibilities increased during the 2024-25 season, his shot share declined, and his play was primarily in Montreal’s defensive zone. This season, his metrics have moved closer to his career average, but his ice time has dropped to around 11 minutes per game, suggesting a declining role and generally not a good sign three full seasons into his NHL career.

Struble’s results are closer to break-even. He averages approximately 14 minutes per game and generally provides more stable shifts. While he has not driven play to a degree that elevates the group, he has avoided the pronounced fluctuations that often accompany increased defensive responsibilities. In practical terms, both players have established recognizable profiles without demonstrating significant progression beyond them.

Arber Xhekaj’s X factor

The assessment of Xhekaj goes beyond just statistics. Many fans believe that his presence discourages opponents from targeting Montreal’s skilled players. He’s seen as a deterrent whose physicality impacts how others behave during the game. 

Decisions to scratch him against more physical teams often provoke criticism due to this perception. Consequently, many believe his value is not fully reflected by shot share metrics alone.

St. Louis recognizes this aspect of team dynamics. He played during a period when most teams had designated enforcers and physical intimidation was integral to roster construction. 

The league has changed significantly since that time. Fighting has decreased, the pace of play has increased and puck management is central to success. Coaches must now balance deterrence with efficiency in ways that were not previously required.

Playoff implications

Playoff hockey further complicates this balance. Space becomes limited, physical intensity rises and matchups become more stringent. A physically imposing defender who can adapt to postseason tempo may influence a series even if regular-season metrics are modest. 

Xhekaj demonstrated aspects of this impact against the Washington Capitals last spring. Although Montreal did not advance, his presence had a tangible effect on the series.

Performance in the current postseason will likely shape the organization’s future decisions. If Xhekaj manages playoff minutes effectively and contributes without becoming a liability, an extension becomes more justifiable. Conversely, if his role remains rotational or limited, the evaluation process becomes more direct.

Struble is subject to a less conspicuous but equally significant evaluation. While a reliable depth defender provides value, the organization must assess whether consistency alone meets the requirements of a team seeking to progress beyond the development phase.

Asset management and organizational risk

Retaining both players for the next season presents specific consequences. Engstrom and Reinbacher will eventually need NHL ice time to support their development. Maintaining defenders who have plateaued limits these opportunities. 

Asset management is also a consideration. League-wide, there are still projections for both players, and other teams may anticipate further development. However, another season without measurable progress diminishes these projections and, consequently, their market value.

Montreal’s overall trajectory intensifies the decision-making process. The forward group is starting to approach its prime, and expectations now focus on immediate results rather than incremental improvement. Contending teams typically minimize volatility in depth roles and prioritize consistency as competitive margins narrow.

Offering Xhekaj a short-term extension and maintaining competition with Struble would indicate confidence in further development. Alternatively, exploring trade options suggests that the evaluation phase is complete. Neither approach is inherently superior. Acting risks foregoing potential growth prematurely, while excessive delay may reduce both opportunity and asset value.

The alternating lineup decisions throughout the season reflect persistent uncertainty. The playoffs may provide the clarity necessary for resolution. Subsequent actions will reveal whether Montreal considers this competition part of ongoing development or a matter already settled.