Canadiens Fans Need to Accept That Mitch Marner Isn’t Coming to Montreal

It’s easy to see how this situation looks a lot like when the New York Rangers signed Artemi Panarin in the summer of 2019. The Rangers’ general manager at the time: Jeff Gorton, now Montreal’s executive vice president.

But here’s the truth: it’s not happening. Marner won’t be signing in Montreal, and it’s time for Canadiens fans to let go of the fantasy. There are several clear reasons why this move makes very little sense from Marner’s perspective, no matter how much sense it might make on paper for the Canadiens.

The Pressure

If Marner decides to leave the Maple Leafs, the number one reason will almost certainly be the unrelenting pressure and scrutiny he’s faced in Toronto. Every spring, the Maple Leafs’ latest playoff collapse is dissected endlessly, and Marner, fairly or not, has consistently been the scapegoat. Despite strong regular-season performances year after year, he’s been dragged through the mud in Toronto media and by a restless fanbase frustrated with first-round exits.

There’s no doubt that kind of atmosphere takes a toll. If he’s looking to escape that environment, Montreal is not the answer. The Canadiens’ market is just as intense, if not more so. The French and English media coverage is relentless, the fanbase is passionate to a fault, and every game is a referendum on whether a player is “good enough” to wear the CH.

When things go well, Montreal is a dream market. But when things go south, the city can be merciless. If Marner is tired of being the face of disappointment in Toronto, he won’t want to risk becoming the next target in Montreal. He’s likely to look for a market where he can fly a bit more under the radar and just play hockey freely, something he would never be able to do in a Canadiens uniform.

High Income Taxes

Let’s talk money, and specifically, how much of it players get to keep. Both Ontario and Quebec have among the highest income tax rates in the NHL. In fact, if Marner wants to make the most of his next contract, which could easily be worth $12 million or more annually, he’ll likely look south. Teams in Florida, Nevada, or Texas offer far more favourable tax situations. A dollar goes a lot further in Tampa Bay, Florida, Dallas, or Vegas than it does in Montreal.

Money alone won’t dictate where Marner signs, but it will be a major factor, especially considering the tax hit he’s already been taking for nearly a decade in Toronto. If he’s going to leave that behind, it won’t be to switch to another high-tax market.

Win-Now Mode

Marner is 28 years old. He’s in the prime of his career and will be entering free agency having spent nine years trying, and failing, to win a Stanley Cup with the Maple Leafs. His next destination will almost certainly be a team that gives him the best chance to lift that trophy.

Unfortunately, that doesn’t describe the Canadiens, at least not yet. Yes, the Habs are on the rise. Suzuki, Caufield, Juraj Slafkovsky, and Lane Hutson form an exciting core. Ivan Demidov will add firepower. The prospect pool is one of the deepest in the league, and GM Kent Hughes and Gorton have done an excellent job rebuilding the roster. But even with Marner added to the mix, this team wouldn’t be a true Stanley Cup contender in 2025-26.

They’d be better, no doubt. A playoff team? Definitely. But Marner likely won’t want to sign a long-term deal with a team that’s still two or three years away from being a legitimate threat. He’s already endured the growing pains in Toronto.

If he hits the open market, Marner will likely prioritize teams that are already knocking on the door, organizations that can sell him on immediate contention. Think Colorado Avalanche, Carolina Hurricanes, or even Florida Panthers. Montreal is building something promising, but they’re still a few steps behind those clubs.

The idea of Marner in a Canadiens jersey is fun to think about. It would be a massive story, one of the most dramatic signings in recent memory. And from a pure hockey standpoint, he’d make the Canadiens much better overnight. But it’s just not realistic. The pressure, the taxes, and the timeline don’t align with what Marner is likely looking for at this stage in his career.

The Canadiens will make moves this summer, perhaps even big ones. But it’s time for fans to take Marner off their wish list. There are better fits, smarter bets, and more realistic targets out there. The Marner dream? It’s just that, a dream.