Canadiens Owe Playoff Berth to Dobes but Not Rich Extension

Dobes’ statistical slip back down to Earth shouldn’t be as much of a concern as Primeau’s plummet back to the American Hockey League. While the Canadiens must shoulder a great deal of blame with how Primeau was effectively yo-yoed between leagues and fed scrap starts, which arguably adversely impacted his development, the fact is Primeau seemed to have established himself as an NHL regular late last season, after they traded Jake Allen, to bring an end to their ill-advised and doomed-to-fail three-goalie rotation. Past the 2024 trade deadline, Primeau went 3-3-2 (on a fifth-from-last-place team) with a .921 SV%. So, it was only natural to believe Primeau would take another step forward in 2024-25.

He obviously didn’t, and his failure to should give general manager Kent Hughes pause. With Primeau’s contract up as well, it’s understandable if his time in the organization ends with the Laval Rocket’s current playoff run, during which Primeau to his credit has re-established himself as a potential NHL goalie. After getting demoted, he went 21-2-2 in the regular season with a 1.96 GAA and .927 SV%.

Dobes the Clear Canadiens Backup

However, Primeau’s capabilities as an AHL goalie were rarely in doubt. It’s safe to assume the Canadiens see Dobes as their guy (behind Montembeault), but a quick glimpse at the Rocket’s net currently, which Primeau is sharing with Jacob Fowler, one of the top goalie prospects in the entire league, should hint at more uncertainty regarding Dobes’ place in the organization. It’s possible Fowler fails to pan out, but, literally within months of joining the Hamilton Bulldogs on their 2007 Calder Cup run, Carey Price, the team’s last blue-chipper in net, became an NHL regular, with Primeau at one time having been seen as his heir apparent following a similarly successful collegiate career (as Fowler).

If Primeau’s supervillain origin story should have taught the Canadiens anything, it’s that they need to do a better job of bringing along their goalies. That involves:

In Primeau’s case, the Canadiens abjectly failed at each turn, especially considering the fact the team’s goaltending coach at the time, Stephane Waite, recommended they give him 200 AHL games. After taking the Rocket’s reins mid-season, he’s currently at 149 (not including playoffs). With Dobes, the Canadiens at least seem to have made a concerted effort to give him the net more often, and, seeing as Primeau is unlikely in the team’s plans past this season, they technically kept the former in the AHL as long as possible.

So, Dobes is where he needs to be, as far as the Canadiens are concerned. With that, it makes sense to bring Fowler along as slowly as possible. Their current goaltending depth, Dobes included, gives them the luxury of time. And, if it so happens Dobes takes the next step Primeau was unable to, the Habs can cross that bridge when they come to it. You can be sure they’d be glad to, but, in the here and now, it’s simply a recipe for disaster to read too much into Dobes’ modest short-term success over a single half-season, which kind of hints at his lack of leverage, despite being arbitration-eligible per PuckPedia (and this Habs regime far from being shy about locking up young talent exiting their entry-level deals).

Dobes vs. Wolf

Obviously, re-signing Dobes is probably the Canadiens’ biggest offseason priority (or one of the biggest). However, he’s certainly not going to break the bank. Look at Calgary Flames goalie Dustin Wolf, who, at Dobes’ 24 years of age, finished last season with a similar body of NHL work, Dobes admittedly possessing a clear statistical edge. However, if the Flames can sign Wolf to a two-year, $1.7 million deal last summer, when they had just traded away Jacob Markstrom, the Habs won’t re-sign Dobes for much more than his current two-year $1.85 million contract, with Montembeault the team’s clear No. 1 and Fowler in the pipeline.

Wolf was always expected to take on more responsibility heading into his second NHL contract. While he obviously exceeded expectations as an eventual Calder Memorial Trophy finalist, his next contract will reflect that level of success. Dobes’ next contract will meanwhile reflect his current place on the depth chart.

With Montembeault having exited Game 3 against the Washington Capitals in Round 1 this past spring, Dobes was thrust into his role of starter instead. He didn’t play badly, but he also didn’t muddy the waters with exceptional play, regarding where he belongs role-wise. Any clarity to that effect will come in the next few years (after he’s presumably re-signed). However, if 2024-25 was any indication of how the team in front of him will measure up, he’ll have no shortage of opportunities playing behind a team that should consistently put him the best position to succeed. That’s one way he and Primeau, who started his career with the team in a state of flux, differ. Hopefully Dobes’ development from this point on reflects the contrast. Fingers crossed his third deal does as well. His second won’t, though.