Canadiens Probably Miss Guhle Despite Wins with Him Injured

To a degree, the Montreal Canadiens deserve the benefit of the doubt that they can withstand recent injuries to Kirby Dach, Patrik Laine and, most significantly, Kaiden Guhle. First and foremost, they’re 6-3, which makes any initial signs of on-ice struggles fairly easy to swallow. However, there is no doubt they escaped their last few wins, against the non-playoff-projected Buffalo Sabres and Calgary Flames, thanks primarily to the heroics of goalie Jakub Dobes.

Conveniently ignoring the team’s heartbreaking loss to the Edmonton Oilers on Thursday (which Sam Montembeault started), Dobes has obviously been outstanding. Ahead of Thursday night’s action, he trailed just New York Rangers goalie Igor Shesterkin in Goals-Against Average (1.47 to 1.17) and Save Percentage (.950 to .957) in the entire league. Fans can wax poetic about whether or not he deserves the net more over Montembeault separately. That’s a different story altogether.

Canadiens Shouldn’t Need Another Price

This is more of an issue of whether the Canadiens can get by relying on their goaltending to that degree sustainably, when they’ve arguably spent the last half-decade following the end of the Carey Price era moving away from that line of strategic thinking (and for the better). Remember, despite the Habs having reached the 2021 Stanley Cup Final largely on the strength of Price’s elite goaltending, they bowed out in five games to a much deeper and well-rounded Tampa Bay Lightning team in five games. While that run was incredible, put together by arguably the strongest Canadiens roster since 1993 at that point, this specific team is better on paper.

Just to mitigate expectations, that doesn’t mean a Stanley Cup is in this team’s immediate future. There are more variables to consider other than a team’s perceived improved depth relative to a previous incarnation from five years ago, like how the rest of the league looks. As the youngest team in the NHL, the Habs have less veteran experience and leadership than they did in 2021 too. However, the fact that they’re as young as they are and reached the postseason as early as they did in their rebuild last season bodes well for their chances in the future. They may not have the same high level of goaltending as the 2021 team that came within three wins of a Stanley Cup, but it has been proven time and again you don’t need an elite goalie to go all the way. As ex-general manager Marc Bergevin found out the hard way, building around a goalie like Price means devoting significant resources to insulating him, seemingly at the expense of the team’s offense, which scored just eight times in the Final and a 12th-ranked 2.32 goals per game that postseason.

So, one should hope the Canadiens, who were admittedly weak defensively last season and own an underwhelming expected goals share of 48.2% (according to MoneyPuck.com, ahead of Thursday night), get back to what made them so successful in their own end to start the season. On the plus side, they did carry play against the Sabres for a large portion of that game before the opposition gained momentum upon getting on the board. And, against the Flames two nights later, it was the first game of road trip out West, meaning it’s possible they’re still acclimating to the time difference.

Guhle a Stabilizing Presence

It’s also possible they miss Guhle, who helps form the team’s second pairing with Lane Hutson, especially. Without him, the Canadiens have played Jayden Struble in that role, which is how things shaped out when Guhle suffered a serious leg laceration late last season. Surprisingly, Hutson and Struble (and the rest of the team) thrived, relatively speaking. However, this time around, against the Flames, the pair had a 19.2% expected goals share. Against the Sabres, it was 27.3%. Against the New York Rangers last Saturday, it was 26.5%. Against the Nashville Predators, Guhle’s last game, he and Hutson had one of 66.1%. Clearly the Habs are struggling, even if their record may not say so.