Canadiens Prospect Rankings – The Talented And Underrated

14. Oliver Kapanen, 21, Centre, Kalpa (Liiga), Picked 64th overall in 2021, 6’1″, 183 lb.

Try as I may, it’s not always possible to keep a certain level of bias out of my Canadiens prospect rankings. Just as I erred when I dismissed defenceman Arber Xhekaj early in his career, it’s starting to look like I wrote off forward Oliver Kapanen a little too early. To make matters worse, I weighed his underwhelming performances at the World Juniors way too much, a cardinal sin in hockey analysis. It’s especially embarrassing since one of my favourite discussions is reminding people just how useless the World Juniors are when it comes to long term projections. Scoring five points versus Norway can be entertaining, but doesn’t hold much long-term value. It also felt like his progress was much too slow, but in reality I was simply being impatient. Oh well, you can’t win them all.

On the flip side, there’s actually a chance I’ve over corrected his overall ranking based on his solid regular season, 14 goals and 20 assists in 54 games, as well as his fantastic run in the playoffs, seven goals and seven assists in 13 games. Regardless, the main issue that made it difficult to project Kapanen’s ascension to the NHL was his lack of sustained offence. Now that he’s shown he still has the offensive instincts that were present in the U-20 lead, it’s hard to point to a significant red flag in his game. He’s excellent without the puck, knows how to exploit freshly-opened passing lanes, and he can score when there’s very little runway left between himself and the opposing goalie.

Even if the odds are stacked against him when it comes to earning a roster spot with the Habs, Kapanen will be one of the most interesting players at the 2024-25 training camp, which will serve as a barometer as to his ability to transition the skills he perfected in Finland to North American ice. If he fails to make the Canadiens he won’t report to the Laval Rocket in the AHL. Rather, he will report to Timra (SHL), where he will play under the watchful eye of his father Kimmo, the general manager of the club.

13. Jayden Struble, 22, Defenceman, Montreal Canadiens (NHL), Picked 46th overall in 2019, 6’0″, 195 lb.

Almost everything went right when Jayden Struble made his unexpected NHL start late in November. The call-up was a surprise, but it was certainly based on merit given his play with the Laval Rocket to start his first professional hockey season in earnest. After a solid audition to close out the 2022-23 campaign, Struble quickly became the best player head coach Jean-Francois Houle had at his disposal last season.

Nowadays, many prospects opt to fast track their tenure in the NCAA, a decision that unquestionably works out for some, but there’s still value to spending four full seasons playing college hockey, as evidenced by Struble’s ability to seamlessly adapt to the professional game. At Northeastern, Struble was tasked with driving the offence from the backend while monitoring the opposing team’s top forwards. He developed a mean streak in his game by shutting down forwards on the rush and then inviting them to take a rather violent seat on the ice by ways of a thunderous check. In Laval, he was tasked with fewer responsibilities, allowing him to focus on the lack of time and space in the AHL.

Some have said he’s yet to show that same level of aggression in the NHL, and that’s true, but we also have to allow for a certain grace period when a young, inexperienced player is suddenly thrust into the limelight. It was more important for Struble to find his bearings than to usurp Arber Xhekaj’s title as the team’s biggest hitter. That being said, Struble had at least half a dozen hits throughout the year that offered Canadiens fans a glimpse into his physical prowess.

Unfortunately (and predictably), after his great start Struble’s underlying numbers went from well above average to a level you’d expect for one of the youngest players in the lineup. To put it bluntly, once the impact of playing a very long professional hockey caught up with his body, Struble’s numbers cratered faster than a team run by Mike Milbury. That was to be expected seeing as he received a baptism by fire, but I’m not ready to say his poor possession statistics are a true indication of his potential, especially since he was playing on a team that struggled in those very same statistics well before Struble was inserted into the lineup.

I wouldn’t be surprised if he starts the season in the AHL as there’s yet another defensive logjam on the horizon, and he does have to improve his timing. That can only be achieved with ample ice time, ice time that is not available on the third pairing in the NHL.

12. Filip Mesar, 20, Right Wing/Centre, Kitchener Rangers (AHL), Picked 26th overall in 2022, 5’10”, 170 lb.
 

Full disclosure: I originally ranked Filip Mesar much lower than 12th. The first rough draft of my rankings had him in the No.25 to N.21 bracket, a rather harsh assessment of the Slovak forward. Once again, I may have overcorrected by the time my final rankings were complete, but in the spirit of learning quickly from my mistakes, I wanted to avoid another Oliver Kapanen situation.

Mesar’s two seasons with the Kitchener Rangers were underwhelming. He played well, and at times he became a dominant presence in the offensive zone, but the lack of consistency down the stretch of both regular seasons was far from impressive.

And then the playoffs started, and he found a new gear.

Mesar scored one goal and 10 assists in six games against the Erie Otters, before finishing out his spring hockey with six assists in a four-game sweep by the London Knights. It’s worth noting the Knights put together one of the most dominant runs in recent OHL playoff history. They shut out the vast majority of the top players they faced, making Mesar’s production fairly impressive.

Next season will go a long way in determining whether Mesar can use the experience he gained in the OHL to secure a top-six roster spot with the Laval Rocket. A slow rookie season in North American wouldn’t necessarily mean that he should no longer be rated as a top prospect, but it would be considered a stagnant development season. On that note, I expect Mesar will be to provide much more offensive impact once he’s playing with teammates that have a healthy amount of professional hockey experience. You could tell he was frustrated with some of the poor pass receptions or lack of anticipation from some linemates while he was in the OHL, however, he also opted for passes in many situations that called for a shot. A heightened level of greed is in order if he’s to stop deferring to the other player on the rush.

11. Adam Engstrom, 20, Defenceman, Rogle (SHL), Picked 92nd overall in 2022, 6’2″, 190 lb.

Lane Hutson has (deservedly) dominated the headlines since the 2022 NHL Entry Draft, overshadowing Adam Engstrom’s fantastic play in the SHL. The first time I had the chance to watch Engstrom play I was blown away by his elite skating ability, not to mention his penchant for flashy, but productive plays in the offensive zone. He did not look out of place playing professional hockey as a 19-year-old, a very encouraging sign for the velvety skater. His rookie season gave way to a sophomore campaign that saw Engstrom improve many of his defensive deficiencies while also contributing secondary scoring from the blueline.

I’d be lying if I said he no longer has any defensive issues. Fortunately, playing for the Rocket means he will have close access to the Canadiens’ development team, though I don’t want to give the impression Rogle did a poor job teaching Engstrom the ins and outs of professional hockey. The key for Engstrom’s development will be nurturing his elite offensive instincts while helping him do a better job picking his spots.

Do yourself a favour and don’t sleep on Engstrom. As many have pointed out, the Habs have a brutal track record when it comes to European defencemen graduating through their ranks. But there are two things worth remembering. First, blueliners such as Magnus Nygren and Mattias Norlinder never possessed the same talent level, and more importantly, the same confidence as Engstrom does. And secondly, judging players based on a loose association, such as being born in the same country, is an archaic and inefficient way of judging prospects.

Do you agree or disagree with the Montreal Canadiens prospect rankings posted above?