Canadiens’ Surprising Line Is Outperforming Hockey’s Best

Originally posted on NHL Trade Talk | By Old Prof | Last updated Oct 15, 2026 3:09 PM ET

Here’s something worth a look. When we talk about Canada’s top NHL teams, we usually start with the biggest names. Connor McDavid. Leon Draisaitl. Auston Matthews. Fair enough. But an early-season look at how lines control play has revealed an interesting surprise: the Montreal Canadiens have the highest-ranked line of the three Canadian teams in this group.

And no, it isn’t necessarily the combination you might have guessed. The numbers measure five-on-five expected-goal share (xGF%). In plain English, that’s an estimate of which team is creating the better scoring chances while a particular line is on the ice. It isn’t a goal-scoring contest, and it doesn’t tell the whole story. Still, it offers a useful early glimpse of how things are going.

The NHL's best forward lines at 5v5 this season, by share of on-ice expected goals while together.

Connelly · Hertl · Olofsson (VGK) lead at 81.9% over 32 minutes.

True co-on-ice units rebuilt from shift stints — not deployment lines.#NHL pic.twitter.com/ZoE0nk4Z6N
— Hockey Alchemy (@hockeyalchemy) October 14, 2026

Montreal’s Unexpected Line Combination

The Canadiens’ line of Chris Kreider, Alex Newhook and Josh Anderson sits second overall in the ranking, with a 79.5% expected-goal share. That’s impressive company to keep. Vegas leads the entire list at 81.9%, leaving Montreal just behind.

Here’s the interesting part. The Canadiens have managed that number in only 24 minutes together. That’s a pretty small sample, so I’m not ready to declare this line the answer to all Montreal’s questions. But it does suggest that some of the team’s early success might be coming from combinations fans aren’t necessarily watching most closely.

Sometimes the supporting cast deserves a little attention, too.

Edmonton Is Doing What Edmonton Does

When you put McDavid and Draisaitl together with Vasily Podkolzin, you expect some offensive pressure. The numbers suggest they are. Their line has a 70.2% expected-goal share, tied for 10th overall. They’ve also played 63 minutes together, giving us a little more evidence than Montreal’s smaller sample.

They’re not leading the ranking, but they’re controlling a healthy share of the expected goals. Nobody should be particularly surprised by that.

Toronto’s Matthews Line Is Holding Its Own

The Toronto Maple Leafs combination of Marchenko, Matthews and Roslovic sits 12th at 69.4%. That’s below Edmonton and Montreal, but it’s still positive. The line has generated a greater share of expected goals, and its 49 minutes together give us a reasonable early snapshot.

Of course, there’s plenty of season left to see whether that continues.

The Canadiens Are the Surprise in This Set of Analytics

Montreal has the surprise package, Edmonton has the familiar star power, and Toronto has a line that’s quietly doing some good work. These numbers aren’t predictions, and early-season statistics can change quickly. But they remind us that hockey success isn’t always about the names that get the biggest headlines.

Sometimes, the most interesting story is the line nobody expected to be near the top.

This article first appeared on NHL Trade Talk and was syndicated with permission.

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