Canucks: What is Thatcher Demko’s maximum trade value this offseason?

There once was a time when the Vancouver Canucks seemed to be forever on the hunt for a quality goaltender. Most refer to those as the ‘Dan Cloutier Days.’ But ever since then, the issue has almost always been that of too many quality goaltenders, and that may be the case yet again as of the 2025 offseason.

We wrote about this recently. In short, the situation is this: the Canucks need to either be prepared to carry all three of Thatcher Demko, Kevin Lankinen, and Arturs Silovs on their roster next season, or be prepared to make a difficult decision on one of them this summer.

Lankinen was, of course, just extended on a five year, $4.5 million AAV contract that includes a full no-movement clause in the first two years. He’s not going anywhere.

Silovs, meanwhile, has brought the Abbotsford Canucks to the Calder Cup Finals with an MVP-worthy performance, solidifying himself as a summer month specialist. More relevant to this discussion, however, is the fact that Silovs will run out of waiver exemption time as of July 1, 2025. That means that he’s either playing in the NHL next season or being exposed to waivers, where he could be snatched up by another team.

Which brings us to Demko, the goaltender that seems by far the most likely to be traded. Demko is entering the last year of a $5 million AAV contract that, notably, contains no trade protection clauses of any kind.

And if Demko is going to be dealt, the obvious question left to ask is that of who might want to trade for him, and what they might be willing to give up in return.

The Player

Demko’s most recent season doesn’t exactly make him look like a prize catch. He missed massive swaths of the 2024/25 season with various injuries, including an ongoing ailment to his popliteus muscle that will reportedly never fully rebound.

In the end, Demko played just 23 games for the Canucks last season, with a record of 10-8-3, a goals-against-average of 2.90, and a save percentage of .889. Pick a statistical category, any category, and you’re likely to find among the worst results in Demko’s eight-year NHL career.

But with all that being said, Demko is just one year removed from a Vezina-nominated performance in 2023/24, in which he had a record of 35-14-2, a GAA of 2.45, and a save percentage of .918. Even better, that year’s Demko achieved some 22 goals-saved-above-expected, according to MoneyPuck, the best such result of any goalie in the league that year save for Vezina-winner Connor Hellebuyck.

Where exactly Demko’s value lies as a player depends on which version of Demko one believes he’ll be closest to when he returns to play in 2025/26. But NHL GMS do have a reputation of having long memories that are occasionally slow to update, so we’d bet on at least a few of them being able to convince themselves he’s still the Demko of a year ago – whether that’s actually true or not.

The Market

Nothing speaks more strongly to Demko’s current value than the state of the goaltending market around him.

If we were to take a casual swing at which teams might be looking for a new or upgraded starting goalie this offseason, we’d wind up with a list that includes the Buffalo Sabres, Carolina Hurricanes, Chicago Blackhawks, Colorado Avalanche, Columbus Blue Jackets, Detroit Red Wings, Edmonton Oilers, Philadelphia Flyers, Pittsburgh Penguins, and Utah Mammoth. Other teams could enter that picture if they can manage to shift a current goalie to one of the teams looking, but that’s already a third of the league on the lookout.

And what does that third of the league have to choose from? Not much, as it turns out.

The list of top UFA goalies includes Jake Allen, Ville Husso, Vitek Vanecek, Alexandar Georgiev, Dan Vladar, Ilya Samsonov, and Anton Forsberg.

It’s arguable that there’s not a genuine starting goaltender in the bunch. It’s borderline inarguable that Demko wouldn’t represent a significantly better option for any team with any hope of competing, even with all his injury history considered.

If we flip our lens over to those goalies who might be traded this offseason, like Demko, we find an even shorter list. We’ve got maybe one big name in Anaheim’s John Gibson – who has just as many, if not more, questions about injuries and consistent performance as Demko – and that’s about it. Stuart Skinner, Karel Vejmelka, Joel Hofer, Linus Ullmark, or Cam Talbot could move. And maybe a team might value the consistency of someone like Vejmelka or Talbot, or the youth of Hofer, over what Demko brings. But not every team, and, in any case, there are still far more teams looking for good goalies than the amount of good goalies available.

There’s an argument to be made that Demko is the best goalie available to be acquired this offseason, and if we’re talking solely about a goalie for the 2025/26 season, that argument becomes iron-clad. And being the top goalie available on a market this thirsty must mean that some meaningful trade return is possible for the Canucks.

But what would it be?

The Potential Return

Looking for comparables can be tough, as goalie trades are relatively rare and don’t wind up setting much of a precedent for each other due to their infrequency.

Last year, the biggest goalie-related trade involved Yaroslav Askarov going to the San Jose Sharks for a first round pick, a recent first round selection, and a minor league goalie. But Askarov’s youth makes him a very poor comparable for Demko.

We could look at the previous summer’s trade of Logan Thompson to Washington in exchange for two third round picks, and worry about what that says about Demko’s value, especially given how Thompson has starred for the Capitals since. But there was some off-ice drama at play there, and that created a situation where Vegas was looking to ditch Thompson, allowing Washington to swoop in and snatch him for a bargain price. One has to hope Demko retains more value than a couple mid-round picks.

Demko’s old crease partner Jacob Markstrom went from Calgary to New Jersey last summer for a first round pick and Kevin Bahl. That’s a heavy return, and it came with Markstrom only having two years left on his contract – not far off from Demko’s one. Markstrom’s value was juiced a little bit by Calgary retaining a third of his contract, but that might not be necessary with Demko only clocking in at $5 million.

Markstrom doesn’t share the same level of injury concerns as Demko, and that increases his value. But this trade at least puts Demko in the ballpark of a return that could include a first round pick, which is definitely what many would be hoping for.

The best comparable we can offer is a trade that happened four summers ago, in July of 2021. That trade sent Darcy Kuemper from the Arizona Coyotes to the Colorado Avalanche in exchange for a first round pick, a conditional third round pick, and Conor Timmins.

There are a lot of parallels here. Kuemper was coming off a season in which multiple lower body injuries limited him to 27 games for the Coyotes. On top of that, Kuemper was a pending UFA, just as Demko is now.

Those two factors should have conspired to limit Kuemper’s trade value, but they didn’t. The Colorado Avalanche still identified him as their best chance at winning a Stanley Cup in 2022 and paid accordingly – and they were right. Kuemper won the Cup for Colorado, and then signed in Washington as a free agent the following summer.

Like we said, these trades are so few and far between that they don’t necessarily lay down any precedent for one another. But at least with this comparable, we see that there is a chance that a team could put together a sizeable package in exchange for a goalie that has injury concerns and a dwindling contract, sure, but one that also gives them a concrete chance to win.

Demko is the only goalie who fits this mould this offseason. There is hope that means that a first round pick is, indeed, a fair starting point in any Demko-related trade discussions (or, perhaps a more NHL-ready prospect of equivalent value, if that’s what the Canucks prefer.)

And, who knows, maybe even a little bit more on top of that?