Comparing the Battle of Ontario goaltending matchup

Looking at the table above, I don’t think there’s any question that the Maple Leafs’ tandem is superior heading into round one. The Maple Leafs had the second-most wins in the regular season in the entire league with 52, and goaltending was a large part of this.

Anthony Stolarz leads the entire NHL with a .926 SV%. Though Stolarz has played roughly 400 minutes less than Linus Ullmark or fellow tandem goalie Joseph Woll. Ullmark—the number one goaltender for the Senators—is tied for 12th in SV% with several others among goaltenders who played 1000 minutes or more. This includes the Maple Leafs’ Joseph Woll. 

Out of the group, Stolarz has had a better season when looking at the numbers in isolation. He has an astonishing 24.61 goals saved above average compared to Ullmark’s 11.34 and Woll’s 10.73. Stolarz has stolen several games for the Maple Leafs earlier in the season.

Ullmark compares very closely to Woll, posting the same SV% of .909 and a similar GAA. However, where Ullmark has excelled is in stopping high-danger shots. He has a high-danger SV% of .836 compared to Woll’s .807 and Stolarz’s .846. Ullmark also has a slightly lower high-danger GAA compared to Woll, but it is noticeably higher than Stolarz. He has both Maple Leafs’ netminders beat with a higher high-danger goals saved above average of 9.68 compared to Stolarz’s 8.67 and Woll’s 0.15. Anton Forsberg is a -2.70 in this category, but is clearly the backup.

Overall, when looking at the regular season, Stolarz is likely to be the starter for game one. However, the Maple Leafs have had the luxury this year of having two excellent goaltenders. The Maple Leafs can be very confident with starting either Stolarz or Woll. But how do they compare when looking at the playoffs?

2021–22 to 2023–24 playoff comparison

Table 2.² Table comparing the goalie tandems for both the Maple Leafs and Ottawa Senators across some metrics at all strengths during the playoffs from the 2021–22 through the 2023–24 regular season.

Both goalie tandems have a considerable lack of playoff experience. Stolarz has played one NHL playoff game for the Stanley Cup-winning Florida Panthers last season, and did not look good. Coming in relief for Sergei Bobrovsky, in the 35 minutes played, Stolarz allowed three goals on 19 shots in an 8–1 Edmonton Oilers victory in game four. While Stolarz will likely perform well come the playoffs, he is still an unproven commodity.

Woll, on the other hand, has shown to play spectacularly in the playoffs over the last two seasons for the Maple Leafs. Going by the numbers, Woll outperforms every goaltender in the above table by a comfortable margin. He has a .933 SV% compared to Ullmark’s .887 and a 1.78 GAA compared to Ullmark’s 3.59. The margin is even wider when looking at goals saved above average. Woll’s GSAA is 4.15 compared to Ullmark’s -6.96, and Woll’s HDGSAA is 3.21 compared to Ullmark’s -1.74. 

There’s a reason why many think the Maple Leafs could have beaten the Boston Bruins if Woll was played more, especially in game seven, had Woll not been injured. Even Ullmark, who played for the Bruins last season, said when reflecting on the playoffs:

I was surprised that they kept Samsonov in for that many games against us in the playoffs. I felt that every time we played the Leafs and [Joseph Woll] was in net, it felt like it was more of a challenge even though I’m not a player. Just watching him, it looked like he was in so much more control of the situation that was thrown at him.

The battle of the goalies

Yes, on paper, the Maple Leafs come out on top of the Battle of Ontario goaltending. However, the Maple Leafs have also had better defence throughout the year. It’s easy to look at the numbers and be confident that the Maple Leafs have the edge in goaltending. 

The Senators have made the playoffs for the first time in eight seasons and just barely made the show. This is similar to when the Maple Leafs unexpectedly made the playoffs in the 2016–17 season against the Presidents’ Trophy-winning Washington Capitals. Like the Capitals, all the pressure is on the Maple Leafs to win the series. The Maple Leafs also have the demons of previous playoff failures to push through, whereas the Senators are just happy to take the next developmental step.

Like in any playoff series, goaltending is crucial. The ability for a goaltender to steal games when the team does not play well, or make saves at key times despite the team playing well, is essential for a deep playoff run. I am confident that the Stolarz-Woll tandem will perform like they have all regular season, but at the same time, anything can happen in the Stanley Cup playoffs.

1. Data is taken from Natural Stat Trick