Concerning Trend Resurfacing for Penguins Goalies

Originally posted on FanNation Inside The Penguins
By Nicholas Brlansky | Last updated 1/5/24

Up to this point, goaltending has been one of, if not the biggest strength for the Pittsburgh Penguins. As of the start of the new year, Penguins netminders combined to have the fourth-best goals against above expected in the NHL.

Penguins starter Tristan Jarry was on a 12-game stretch where he produced a .922 save percentage and allowed just 2.25 goals per game. Meanwhile, Alex Nedeljkovic was 4-0-1 in his last five starts with a .910 save percentage.

Since the turn of the new year, neither goaltender has looked particularly good in their starts. Tristan Jarry allowed three goals on seven shots against the Washington Capitals before being replaced by Nedelkovic under ten minutes into the game.

Not even a minute in and @tom_wilso has opened the scoring for the @Capitals! #NHLStats: https://t.co/YL7YVWPaWN

: @ESPNPlus ➡️ https://t.co/lJywWUNNz9
: @Sportsnet ➡️ https://t.co/MkeV1xjnHW pic.twitter.com/R84V0PWxMw
— NHL (@NHL) January 3, 2024

Nedeljkovic finished that night strong, stopping 14 of the 15 shots he faced. But he followed it up with a rough night against the Boston Bruins, giving up five goals on 29 shots in a wild 6-5 victory. Both goaltenders finished their respective starts with -2.78 and -2.66 goals saved above expected, a stat they had dominated into this point of the season.

It's only two games, but the timing of their performances is all too familiar. Just over a year ago, Jarry left the Winter Classic midway through the first period due to a hip injury. The remainder of Jarry's season consisted of an extended absence due to injury and underwhelming performance once he returned.

As a result, the Penguins missed the postseason for the first time since the 2005-06 season.

Exactly one year later, Jarry left the Penguins game against Washington in the first period again, this time due to his performance. It was the second time the Penguins pulled Jarry in his last four starts.

Jarry's post-New Year struggles are not exclusive to last season. Historically, his save percentage drops from .924% between October and December to .904% between January and May. His goals-against average and shutout numbers mirror that effect as Jarry becomes an entirely different player.

The Penguins cannot afford a repeat of last season. They are too reliant on goaltending performance for that. The difference this season was to be the emergence of Alex Nedeljkovic as a true 1B to Jarry.

Nedeljkovic has been a steady option this season, but this game provided a reminder that goaltending performance is not linear. It's not time to start planning the Penguins fire sale at the deadline, but the Penguins need their goaltenders to catch their footing soon if they hope to climb back into the Eastern Conference playoff picture.