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Connor McDavid’s Real Value Pegged at $50M AAV in Stunning NHL Comparison

Originally posted on Athlon Sports | By Antonio Losada | Last updated Aug 4, 2025 9:50 AM ET

NHL insider Elliotte Friedman says that if unrestricted by the salary cap, the Edmonton Oilers would be willing to pay Connor McDavid more than twice what they will be allowed by the current collective bargaining agreement (CBA).

That figure, in Friedman's estimations as he shared his thoughts on Sunday's episode of Sportsnet's "32 Thoughts" podcast, could add up to $50 million per year, or average annual value (AAV).

“If the Oilers could pay McDavid $50 million, he would deserve $50 million,” Friedman said. “And look, I don’t think anyone’s going to have an issue.”

McDavid, 28, now in the final year of his current eight-year, $100 million contract, will become an unrestricted free agent on July 1, 2026, and is already eligible to sign a contract extension.

32 Thoughts Mid-Summer Check-in -- featuring Nashville's Spencer Stastney.

Stastney, who missed the beginning of last season, is telling his story to help others. He's a tremendous interview, with some great stories in addition to his primary goal.

Hope everyone is having a…
— Elliotte Friedman (@FriedgeHNIC) August 3, 2025

Cap Rules Will Limit True Connor McDavid Value

McDavid's next deal is expected to be one of the largest in league history, easily surpassing all active deals in the NHL.

Friedman listed both McDavid and Minnesota Wild forward Kirill Kaprizov as the two players expected to reset the market once their new contracts are inked, whether that's with the Oilers and Wild, respectively, or with other franchises.

Under the current NHL CBA, a player can only sign for 20% of the salary cap. That limits McDavid’s theoretical maximum to roughly $19.1 million annually next offseason, even if his real value is far higher.

McDavid earns $12.5 million per season, which represents just 3.2% of Edmonton’s estimated $388 million in 2023–24 revenue, according to Edmonton Journal's David Staples.

Staples compared McDavid's deal and cap percentage to superstar players in other leagues, painting a stark picture:

Juan Soto (MLB) earns 24.6% of the New York Mets' revenue.
Dak Prescott (NFL) earns 10.58% of the Dallas Cowboys' revenue
Steph Curry (NBA) earns 7% of the Golden State Warriors' revenue.

If McDavid earned just the average (14.04%) of those three top salaries, he’d be making $47.5 million — validating Friedman’s estimate of a $50 million-per-season valuation.

"I could foresee a scenario where extensions are done on..."

Oilers Now host @Bob_Stauffer speaks on potential @EdmontonOilers contract extensions.

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— Oilers Now with Bob Stauffer (@OilersNow) July 28, 2025

Timeline for Connor McDavid Extension Taking Shape

Oilers insider Bob Stauffer predicted the Oilers could finalize an extension with McDavid by Aug. 28, alongside deals for Mattias Ekholm, Jake Walman and Vasily Podkolzin.

“I’d say by Aug. 28, which is a Thursday, a month from today, I could foresee a scenario where extensions are done on Podkolzin, Walman, Ekholm and McDavid,” Stauffer said.

Stauffer added that both he and fellow insider Frank Seravalli believe McDavid is “100%” going to re-sign.

Oilers' Connor McDavid Not Rushing Future Decision

McDavid has led the Oilers to back-to-back Stanley Cup Final appearances, but they fell short both times to the Florida Panthers.

Following Edmonton’s loss, McDavid offered no indication he was close to making a decision. “I’m not in a rush to make any decision, so I don’t think there needs to be any timeline,” McDavid said.

McDavid scored 100 points last season in just 67 regular-season games. He sits at 1,082 points in 712 career games.

This article first appeared on Athlon Sports and was syndicated with permission.

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