Could Jared McCann have changed the Toronto Leafs’ future?

The current era of the Toronto Maple Leafs, as we know it, may be coming to an end. Fans continue to reminisce on good moves, mistakes, and what might have been for the Leafs. Let’s take a look back at the 2021 NHL expansion draft and what it looked like for Toronto.

That season, the Leafs lost in the first round of the Stanley Cup playoffs to the Montreal Canadiens. It was a startling upset as the Leafs were dominant in the all-Canadian division that season. They won that division with ease and were heavy favourites. It’s still their worst loss.

That summer, the Seattle Kraken were set to hold their expansion draft, the second in four years for the NHL. The draft was a little bit different this time around. Because the Vegas Golden Knights were smart and leveraged other teams during their draft, teams developed new strategies.

Surprise!

Everybody thought the Leafs would go the 7–3–1 route, which meant they would protect seven forwards, three defencemen, and one goalie. However, when their protected list became public, the Leafs shocked everybody. They went 4–4–1, protecting the core four of Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner, William Nylander, and John Tavares.

As for defence, they protected Morgan Rielly, T.J. Brodie, Jake Muzzin, and Justin Holl, which fans are confused by to this day. The weirdest part is protecting Holl. At the time, the Leafs were contending for a Stanley Cup, and by the logic of the protection list, Holl was a top-four defenceman and a so-called contender.

As a result of the Leafs opting to go the 4–4–1 route, they left Alex Kerfoot and Jared McCann exposed. McCann had just been acquired from the Pittsburgh Penguins a couple of days prior to the protection list being released.

Sault St. Marie Leafs?

As many fans already know, Kyle Dubas was the General Manager of the Soo Greyhounds in the OHL before coming to the Leafs. During his three seasons as General Manager of the Greyhounds from 2011–2014, Dubas had 14 of his players drafted to the NHL. This was the second-highest total among all OHL teams during that time.

At one point, Sheldon Keefe, Jack Campbell, Wayne Simmons, Rasmus Sandin, Nick Ritchie, Jake Muzzin, and Michael Bunting were all with the Leafs. Every person on that list was involved with the Greyhounds at some point in their career.

So, when the Leafs made the deal with Pittsburgh for McCann, who is a former Greyhound himself, people were very excited because the fans thought that something would come of it. However, McCann was left unprotected and was selected by Seattle. He has become one of the Kraken’s best players in recent years.

In Dubas’ Defence

Looking back now, it’s easy to say that protecting Holl, and going with the 4–4–1 was a mistake. However, Dubas had a legitimate reason to protect Holl. He was coming off arguably his most impressive season to date, spending the majority of it playing on a pairing with Muzzin. He also had one of his better offensive seasons, putting up 20 points in 55 games in 2021. On top of that, Holl signed a three-year contract extension with the Leafs prior to the start of the 2021 season.

Playing with Muzzin, the two of them were often relied upon in high-pressure defensive situations at the end of games. It was considered a success as the Leafs were 14–4–7 in one-goal games that season.

There was reason to believe Holl was valued strongly around the league. And despite every mistake he ever made on the ice, it’s easy to see why Dubas would have been hesitant about letting him go to Seattle for nothing.

Sure, McCann scored 40 goals in Seattle in the 2022–23 season, but there’s a lot that went into that. There’s reason to believe that he wouldn’t have had the same level of effectiveness in Toronto.

Had McCann stayed, he wouldn’t have been on the top line like he was in Seattle, and he likely wouldn’t have been on the top power play unit either. Which is why he’s had success with the Kraken.

Looking back, should the Leafs have protected McCann? Probably. However, it’s easy to say it was a mistake almost four years later. As they say, “Hindsight is always 20/20.”