Could the Red Wings Offer Sheet this Young Superstar?

I think it’s important to remind people that there are a lot of reasons why offer sheets aren’t common practice in the NHL. A lot of fans have no problem creating proposals about why offer sheeting certain players is the right call, and they overlook a lot of mechanics about restricted free agency.

The first and most important one being the player needs to sign the contract. Sure, Detroit could offer Jason Robertson $15M, but he would be signing in a tax state and would be moving away from a winning team. Simply put, he probably wouldn’t sign the offer sheet and force Dallas to match, making the whole situation void. A lot of teams who are in a premium position to give offer sheets (Detroit, Chicago, San Jose) aren’t teams players want to sign with right now.

If signed, fans typically overlook the offer sheet compensation tiers and how they work. Any offer sheet above $4.7M starts to include first round picks, and the highest tier above $11.7M includes four first round picks as compensation. Again, a lot of teams that are in a position to offer sheet due to their cap space are still likely tanking. The multiple first rounders might be more valuable than the one player anyway.

Not to mention, they have to be the team’s original first round picks. So any team that traded any of their first rounders starting at the 2027 draft are not able to make an offer sheet unless they make a side deal to get the pick back.

That’s just the hockey part of it, there is also a personal element to offer sheets as well. There was a while this offseason where I heard people in the Red Wings space, notably the guys at the Winged Wheel Podcast, mention an offer sheet for Leo Carlsson of the Anaheim Ducks. Could Detroit tender an offer sheet? Of course, but the ramifications go beyond just the one instance.

Detroit needed money off the books multiple times the past few seasons and Steve Yzerman’s good relationship with Ducks general manager Pat Verbeek has come in clutch. The Ducks took Robby Fabbri and Villi Husso at full-pop. When Detroit needed some help in net, Detroit got Gibson for a very reasonable price when there were surely other teams who could offer up more.

Offer-sheeting Carlsson would seriously damage that relationship. The NHL is an old-boys club, and severing ties with any of them creates problems for you as a manager, full-stop. When Montreal sent an offer sheet to Sebastian Aho, it led to Carolina stealing Kotkaniemi on an offer sheet out of spite. With Detroit needing all the help they can get, including outside help, there’s reason to believe it simply isn’t feasible.

What Makes Fantilli Different?

Well, let’s start with the obvious: Adam Fantilli has ties to Detroit that would make him sign the offer sheet. Adam Fantilli played at the University of Michigan, where he really made a name for himself. Detroit could bring him back to where he played his collegiate hockey, something that enticed Quinn Hughes just last season.

Beyond that, Fantilli is the perfect fit for the Red Wings at center. He’s young, productive, and has a big frame to compensate for Alex DeBrincat and Lucas Raymond, who are on the smaller side. Despite never cracking 60 points, he is only 21, and Lucas Raymond could bring out the best in him in Detroit.

Maybe most importantly though, there’s a need for a number one center of the future in Detroit and there doesn’t seem a better path to get one. The Red Wings cupboards are stocked with prospects on both wings. Carter Bear, Eddie Genborg and Emmitt Finnie look promising on the left side. Michael Brandsegg-Nygard, J.P. Hurlbert and Max Plante are promising on the right. Marco Kasper and Nate Danielson seem primed to hold down depth center spots, but there is no answer for a number one.

Adam Fantilli would solve that, and while the draft pick compensation would be four first round picks, Detroit is likely to get one or two back in a Dylan Larkin trade. Sure, not their own, but the cost would be very manageable for the Red Wings long term.

What Could Detroit Offer?

What could Detroit offer to free up Fantilli? Well, Columbus has Cole Sillinger and Jet Greaves up for a deal as well this summer. Taking the numbers from AFP Analytics, they project to take around $13M total this summer, leaving the Blue Jackets with about $8M to work with. No problem for Detroit, but it won’t be that easy.

If Columbus signs both Greaves and Sillinger first, more than just Detroit would be bidding on Fantilli. Many of them would love a franchise center. Calgary, Seattle, the Islanders, and even the Flyers if they strike out on Carlsson lead the charge there. So, Detroit would have to make a competitive offer.

Detroit currently sits with $18M in cap space, but with Simon Edvinsson due a new deal, that number could be as little as $9M very soon. Fortunately, there are some gymnastics that can make some space pretty easily.

Bryson and Shine will almost certainly be in the minors for next season, clearing an extra $1.6M off the books. Dylan Larkin being traded would free up $8.7M, not factoring in the players who are in the return. And finally, Detroit could move one or multiple of Ben Chiarot, Mason Appleton, or Michael Rasmussen to free up anywhere from $2.9M to $9.9M. On top of that, they have players with some trade value such as Justin Faulk or Andrew Copp that could also free up some serious money. I’d say my estimate lands Detroit in about the $20M range after some pretty projectable moves.

I think Detroit would be in a position to offer anywhere from $11M-$15M to try and land the Blue Jackets center. It’s bold, but what else is Yzerman going to do at this point?