Depreciating Assets: Oilers’ Adam Henrique at risk of being passed on depth chart this season

It’s worth noting that while Henrique did post a rate of 1.93 points per hour in the 2023/24 season with Edmonton, he was riding a 108 PDO, indicating that a lot of his success was luck-driven. His on-ice shooting percentage and on-ice save percentage were well above normal levels, and it was bound to eventually crash back down to earth. This past 2024/25 season in Edmonton, his PDO was 99.8, which is right around league-average levels.

Negative impact on the team’s even-strength performance

Now, an argument could be made that Henrique didn’t have the best linemates last season, or that he wasn’t put into offensive situations. But the other harsh reality is that when Henrique was on the ice, and often against the other team’s lesser competition, the Oilers would typically get outshot and outchanced. Whoever he was on a line with or whoever was on the blueline with him would typically see their on-ice numbers crater when Henrique was deployed – indicating that it was likely a Henrique-issue rather than a team-wide issue.

In the last two seasons with Edmonton, Henrique’s on-ice numbers were significantly worse relative to the team’s levels, and that’s across all shot types.

For instance, with Henrique on the bench, the Oilers posted an Expected Goals For percentage of 57 percent. But when Henrique was deployed, that number dropped to 47 percent. That transferred into the post-season as well as Henrique’s on-ice expected goal-share was at 46 percent, while the team posted a share of 52 percent. Among all the forwards who played for Edmonton the last two seasons, Henrique’s shot share numbers were consistently at the bottom of the list.

Not so special on special teams

Henrique did have the coach’s trust on the penalty kill, which should work in his favor when he competes for a roster spot this upcoming season. In the last two seasons with Edmonton, Henrique played the fourth-most minutes among forwards on the penalty kill and the fourth-highest rate of minutes per game. His experience will definitely be an asset that the team will rely on.

What the coaching staff should hopefully be aware of is that the Oilers often saw the rate of shots and chances against increase whenever he was on the ice. Among the twelve forwards who played at least 20 minutes on the penalty kill the last two seasons, Henrique’s on-ice rate of shots and shot attempts against were the third highest. With Henrique on the ice, the Oilers saw their rate of unblocked shot attempts (i.e., Fenwick) increase by 12 per hour, an 18 percent increase relative to the team levels. If the Oilers are looking for improvement on the penalty kill, options are coming into training camp that should get a look.

Final Thoughts

The goal is a championship, and every move must be geared towards that. There’s going to be a lot of options for management and the coaching staff to build an optimal roster, with a good array of skillsets and experience to pick from.  And it’s no secret that the Oilers badly need an influx of youth, especially if they want to sustain their success and compete for cups.

There’s a chance Henrique has a great camp and solidifies a role in the middle six order up front and sees his numbers bounce back to previous seasons. But knowing what we know about aging curves among NHL players, and the fact that he’s been declining for a couple of seasons now — both in terms of point production and on-ice performance — it’s hard to make that bet. Plus, teams need to find new, creative ways to allocate their dollars more efficiently heading into the playoffs, making Henrique’s contract enticing to move.

The hope is that management is actively looking for and identifying gaps in their roster and addressing their issues to ensure that they keep pace with the other contenders in the league. And hopefully we see some realistic options emerge in camp and at the start of the season. It’s going to be critical.

Data: Natural Stat Trick