Despite some bumps on the way, Rielly and Carlo are figuring each other out

Not seen before the rush was a worthwhile scoring opportunity from Morgan Rielly on what was a good pinch. The lack of support in covering the blueline, which resulted in Carlo having to cheat more towards the centre of the zone rather than playing fully to the puck side along with Rielly sustaining pressure a bit longer than he should have, certainly contributed to the start of the Predators chance.

Initially, the duo played this better than the way most rushes against Morgan Rielly go. Rielly stayed glued to the puck carrier (Evangelista) and Carlo picked up the second man (Forsberg.) The puck carrier was being held to the wall and this is pretty good mitigation of a scoring chance occurring, but Forsberg’s decision to counter this coverage by falling in behind Evangelista instead of going to the net was the difference maker.

With Evangelista dropping the puck for Forsberg, chaos was created. The Leafs defencemen were disjointed. Carlo made the decision to stick with his original man, while Morgan Rielly hesitated on whether he was going to stay with the puck or stay with Evangelista. Once the decision was made to pursue Evangelista the puck was in the net.

Who was at fault? Both defencemen. While Carlo’s decision made sense as the defensive defenceman and the one covering Forsberg, it wasn’t the right one, and it comes from inexperience playing with Morgan Rielly. Ideally, you don’t want Rielly as the decision maker or the defenceman covering the centre of the defensive zone, so leaving him to go lobster-brained and pursue the puck carrier is the best course of action in this partnership. Rielly’s speed could have been an asset against Forsberg, and Carlo knowing to cheat more towards the middle to cover off Evangelista would have been beneficial.

End of the day, it was a well-executed play by Forsberg, one of the league’s top offensive players, and one that both defencemen should want back and one that is likely preventable once they get more comfortable with each other, and the early numbers show they are getting comfortable playing together.

Expected goals is a favourable stat to show as the measure, albeit an important one. You could point to Carlo’s Corsi For % being 43% and his Goals For % being 50%, but his Expected Goals % being 57% is the standout number. There was always going to be a bit of a defensive metric step back by putting Carlo with Morgan Rielly and while goals against per 60 sits at 2.77, which is less than ideal, Carlo’s expected goals against sitting at 1.99 xGA/60 shows he’s at least having a positive impact in reducing those.

When talking about Carlo’s numbers as a Leaf you are absolutely talking about Rielly’s numbers just as much. Carlo has spent 97 minutes on ice with Morgan Rielly, and the next most frequent partners are Oliver Ekman-Larsson (14 minutes), and Simon Benoit (12 minutes). Carlo’s numbers with Ekman-Larsson are consistently worse than when he’s played with Rielly, and while Carlo’s numbers are better with Simon Benoit, it also reflects the sheltering that pairing would enjoy compared to the usage that Rielly sees.

In short, they are figuring it out and have plenty of room to still improve. Given that Brandon Carlo isn’t just a rental player, there is both motivation to get it right and a potential long-term payoff even if this isn’t the year. This pairing looks like it has the right balance, it is just a matter of getting a better read for how each other plays.

Data from Natural Stat Trick