It’s no secret that the 2024-25 season has been an absolute nightmare for the New Jersey Devils‘ 2022 second overall pick, Simon Nemec. According to Natural Stat Trick, his 34.59 expected goals for percentage (xGF%) is the worst among 264 defensemen (min. 100 TOI) to play in the NHL this season. In just 21 games, the opposition has created 39 more scoring chances than the Devils when he’s been on the ice.
His play has been placed under scrutiny many times, especially after their contest on Mar. 7th against the Winnipeg Jets. Head coach Sheldon Keefe proclaimed the score in a 6-1 loss wasn’t super indicative of how the team (as a whole) played, stating, “The youngest player on the ice had a real tough time tonight.” Of course, that player was Nemec, who made three individual mistakes that led directly to goals.
Many have seemed to forget two very crucial factors. First, Nemec just recently turned the legal drinking age in New Jersey (21), so the on-ice product is likely far from finished. But secondly, he had a very good campaign just one season ago, despite being forced into a top role as a teenager.
In 60 games then, he boasted a 52.28 xGF% and a plus-2 goal differential despite playing on a Devils team that was minus-19 as a whole. Rono Hockey placed him in the 82nd percentile of offensive impact. His per-game pace over a full season would’ve put him around 26 points, one of the more respectable seasons from a U20 rookie defenseman in recent years. He showed an active stick, solid hockey IQ and didn’t shy away from physicality. In other words: he looked the part of a second overall pick who developed his pedigree by playing extremely well against men.
Then, he suffered an injury while playing at the Olympic Qualifiers for Slovakia in August and immensely struggled to start the NHL season. He picked up just one primary assist in nine games and clearly didn’t look right. He was sent down to the Utica Comets of the American Hockey League (AHL) and struggled there for a few weeks as well. Then, just when he started finding his stride and looking healthy, a report from a Slovak outlet was misinterpreted by many, causing it to seem like Nemec was unhappy with the Devils’ organization.
In restating a question, some mistook his words to believe that Nemec wanted out of New Jersey, even though that was never the case. In some instances, popular outlets like Spittin’ Chiclets even combined two entirely separate quotes from different portions of the article, effectively fanning the flames and making the situation unfairly blow up. But the whole time, Nemec was only ever frustrated with his own play and inability to perform.
He was recalled right around the same time this situation was unfolding, but a lack of confidence seemed to overtake his game. From last season, his point production has decreased by 55%, hits by 98%, takeaways by 21%…and his giveaways have skyrocketed by over 117%.
In recent games, it’s seemed to blow over and Nemec has shown more flashes of his 2023-24 self. His five best games of the season (based on xGF%) have all come in the month of March. In those, the Devils have out chanced their opponents 25-14. While some have questioned Nemec’s work ethic and ability to take responsibility, coach Keefe praised how he’s responded through the adversity. After Nemec scored a game winner against Edmonton, Keefe said, “For me, it’s more than just the response today. I thought his response today was set up because his response (after the tough Winnipeg) game, and just how (well) he’s handled himself. I think we saw some real maturity and growth in Nemo, and some accountability at the same time. That, to me, is every bit as important. In fact, maybe even more important than anything that goes on on the ice. It’s the maturity of being a professional and I was really happy with how he handled himself then.”
Simon says get the lead. pic.twitter.com/2COW9A0xPF
— New Jersey Devils (@NJDevils) March 14, 2025
In their recent contest against the Blackhawks, Nemec had an impressive 62.67 xGF% and drew a penalty. He was given 15:19 of ice time and held the opposition to just 0.14 expected goals (0 actual). The Devils have seemed to be splitting the workload between Nemec and recently-acquired Dennis Cholowski. However, despite Nemec’s woes, Cholowski hasn’t been much better.
The Devils are getting outscored 2-0 in Cholowski’s shifts and outchanced by six. His 30.88 xGF% with New Jersey is worse than Nemec’s season total. While he profiles as more of an offensive defenseman, prior to getting dealt to New Jersey, he was in the AHL where he had just one point and a minus-6 rating in his six games.
It’s a little unfair to evaluate Cholowski from such a small sample, but he’s been a journeyman bouncing between the AHL and NHL for his entire career. Unless he was a very clear upgrade, Nemec’s age, recent uptick and draft status should give him the edge.
Additionally, while making a push for a Stanley Cup seems like a longshot, the Devils are still in the thick of a playoff race. Getting Nemec that experience in tense moments could pay dividends for his future.
It’s still possible that the Devils are viewing Nemec as a trade chip for the long haul. With Dougie Hamilton, Brett Pesce and Johnathan Kovacevic locked up for the foreseeable future, it’s tough to see exactly where both Nemec and Seamus Casey fit into the plans.
But Nemec’s numbers can’t really get much worse than they’ve been; giving him the opportunity to get back on track should aid his confidence and get him back to the high-caliber prospect that opposing fanbases have been begging for. And if he reverts back to his best self, maybe there’s a world where the Devils find a way to keep him in the cards for their future.
More must-reads:
Get the latest news and rumors, customized to your favorite sports and teams. Emailed daily. Always free!