Dissecting the Sabres' disappointing start

All eyes point to first-line center Tage Thompson to help get their special teams back to last year’s form. His 20 power-play goals in 2022-23 were tied with the Lightning’s Brayden Point and the Rangers’ Mika Zibanejad for third in the NHL. Thompson has struggled with injuries this season, but he’s been much less effective even when in the lineup. He has only nine goals through 26 games, only two of them coming on the power play. After producing 1.21 points per game last year, he’s producing at a much more conservative per-game clip of 0.73 in 2023-24.

Some of Thompson’s struggles are luck-based, as he’s shooting 2.4% below his career average. He isn’t shooting the puck as much as last season, though, and his even-strength Corsi share has also stepped back about two percent from last season’s figure. He may still be playing like a first-line center, but not at the elite form he displayed last season. His subtle steps back have rendered the continued development of players like John-Jason Peterka and Casey Mittelstadt, as well as an unexpectedly strong rookie season from 2023 13th-overall pick Zach Benson, ineffective in helping the Sabres return to postseason play.

On the other side of the puck, Rasmus Dahlin and Owen Power have remained above average in terms of possession control. They’re far from shutdown stalwarts, but they’re also not enough of a liability to be truly to blame for their 29th-ranked defense. In a poor look for Adams, that brunt falls on the team’s two big free-agent additions — Connor Clifton and Erik Johnson. 

Among full-time Sabres defenders this season, their 47% and 47.4% Corsi shares at even strength are the two worst figures on the team. While Johnson’s $3.25M cap hit is an easy out, having only signed for one year, the three-year term on Clifton’s $3M cap hit suddenly looks quite concerning after putting up some great advanced metrics with the Bruins as part of last season’s record-breaking team.

Neither Devon Levi nor Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen have been spectacular in the crease, but Levi’s had some strong showings recently and has been slightly above average on the season, stopping 0.3 goals above expected per MoneyPuck. Luukkonen has conceded 5 goals more than expected over the course of his 17 appearances this year, but neither netminder has been poor enough to truly affect the course of the team.

How much a newly healthy Jack Quinn can aid their goal-scoring woes and mediocre power play remains to be seen. Since returning from offseason Achilles surgery, the 22-year-old winger has two goals in three games and looks right at home in a top-six role.

There is still plenty of time for the season to turn around, especially given the mediocre performances of some other Eastern Conference teams like the Lightning, Hurricanes and Devils. Buffalo’s playoff odds remain slim at 14.4% per MoneyPuck at the time of writing, and that figure is the highest out of Montreal, Detroit and Ottawa, surely influenced by their 9-3 drubbing of the Maple Leafs last week.

The focus will remain on Thompson’s production as the team returns from its holiday break. If he can rattle off a point-per-game run for the next while, that should help the Sabres squeak out some more wins and get back on pace for at least a winning record. They’ll need to count on continued development from their youngsters and better defending from their second- and third-pair players to take them the rest of the way.