Do the Leafs results add up to them being contenders and deadline buyers?

Through the Leafs games 20 through 40 the Leafs dipped into what we will call “don’t buy” territory only twice, while games 41-46 have at the very least inspired the number of stand pat takes involving the Leafs and one, given Brad Treliving’s track record, is one that he is likely to support.

A way of looking at their current situation is that Leafs should be a .625 points percentage team by the time hit the trade deadline, like a game or two before hand, but if it takes until the 11th hour, Toronto has 17 games to be a .625 team. That would mean Toronto should be a 79 point team at the 63 game mark and that would require them picking up 23 points in their next 17 games, a points percentage of .678 and that is  a points percentage they’ve been able to achieve at points this year.

Another thing to consider is that the Leafs are still very much a playoff team. And for all the criticism thrown at them, they haven’t dipped below a .500 points percentage 20 game stretch and a team with a .600 points percentage makes the NHL playoffs any season and just getting in might be enough for the Leafs to think loading up is worthwhile.

(YTD numbers as of end of the Leafs game on Wednesday night.)

It’s not going to be lost on anyone that the Canadiens, Panthers, and Lightning all went on runs from their position and if you want to play the 1 in 16 lottery that the Leafs are a team of destiny and will come together at the right time, good for you and no one is stopping you. Who it should stop is Brad Treliving who needs to think about whether the Leafs record says hold onto some prospects who look like they can be affordable roster options next year and a draft pick the Leafs can certainly use as it will also be in a slightly higher position than previous seasons.

The Panthers weren’t active at the trade deadline last season, The Canadiens were slightly more active in 2021 but trading nothing more valuable than a 3rd round pick, and while the Tampa Bay Lightning in 2021-22 were notably more active, it’s also because their points percentage was .671 and certainly warranted doing what they can from a slightly lower seed, but a team that still had the 7th best points percentage in the NHL that season.

Now all of that said about the numbers, there are some things that if the Leafs do in the first few games following the All-Star break that would push the team in a buying direction. If the return of Joseph Woll goes as well as everyone is banking on, then there is a reason to believe that a better version of the Leafs does exist is probably the best example of that but improved special teams would probably be another significant change that is enough to turnaround the Leafs season. Better performances out of Ilya Samsonov certainly help the Leafs but Woll looks to be the best path forward.

Couple some stronger goaltending with a few more regulation wins and then hunting for a defenceman at the deadline feels a little less like mortgaging the future.

Data from Hockey Reference