Does Leon Draisaitl have a shot at breaking the NHL’s goal-scoring record?

Can Draisaitl break the record?

To surpass Ovechkin, Draisaitl would need to score an additional 496 goals in his career. This is almost certainly an underestimation, as the Washington Capitals have six games remaining in the regular season and Ovechkin is still signed for another year. However, for argument’s sake, let’s take this number at face value.

The table below shows how many goals Draisaitl would score by season, assuming he does not play until the playoffs this year, dresses for all 82 games in future seasons, and maintains his career goal-scoring pace:

This projections above hinge on several factors, including Draisaitl being able to continue playing at a high level as he ages, sustained good health, and being in an environment that can make use of his offensive talents.

Even if you say those assumptions are reasonable, there is an extremely low chance that Draisaitl will have the durability (or even desire) to play into his late 30s and beyond.

To compound things, many factors outside Draisaitl’s control could impact his production, including rule changes and canceled or suspended seasons. All in all, Draisaitl himself would be the first to admit that catching Ovechkin is a near impossible task, especially being the pass-first player that he is.

Nothing is out of the realm of possibility

Ultimately, Draisaitl’s odds of surpassing The Great Eight as the greatest goal-scorer of all time are fairly low. Accomplishing this feat would require an extraordinary combination of sustained elite performance, durability, and—let’s be honest—luck over the next decade.

That being said, critics of years past used similar arguments when they insisted that Gretzky’s record would never be touched.

In the wise words of Justin Bieber: never say never.