Don’t worry, Leafs Nation, Matthew Knies isn’t going anywhere: Alberga’s Take

Memo to the rest of the NHL: It’s not happening.

No matter how hard media and fans alike are trying to manifest a potential Matthew Knies offer sheet this summer, I’m here to tell you that you’re going to be sadly disappointed.

For a myriad of reasons, there’s a better chance of hell freezing over than there is of the 22-year-old departing Toronto after this season. Even if Knies did put pen to paper on one, the Leafs are not dumb. They would match almost instantaneously and worry about the fallout later.

Simply put, there’s no doubt in my mind that Matthew Knies will be a Toronto Maple Leaf for the foreseeable future. Rest assured, both sides are motivated to come to a resolution. And they will.

As I’ve been reporting for weeks, it seems like a mid-range deal could be where things are headed. Any way you slice it, though, the team loves the player, and the player loves the team.

Clearly, re-signing Knies will be made a high priority once the Leafs’ 2024-25 campaign draws to a close —whenever that may be.

For some reason, and maybe it’s because of the two offer sheets handed out by St. Louis last summer, everyone’s hot and heavy for more.

For starters, the salary cap’s jumping significantly this summer. On top of that, regardless of what they elect do with Mitch Marner and John Tavares, among others, the Leafs project to have plenty of cap space. As we’ve seen time and time again, too, there almost needs to be a perfect storm for a team to be successful in acquiring the asset. See the St. Louis/Edmonton situation from last August. The Oilers were cap strapped and the Blues took advantage.

Moral of the story: I think it would be a colossal waste of time for a team to even contemplate pulling the trigger on something like this. Not only do offer sheets rarely work, but over and above all that, someone would have to grossly overpay Knies to even make Toronto think about not matching. Is a team really going to sacrifice multiple draft picks and precious cap space to lure the 22-year-old out of Toronto? I mean, go for it, but they won’t have a job for much longer —that’s for sure.

Additionally, I don’t think a lot of people in the hockey world actually comprehend how an offer sheet works. Just because a player is presented with one, it doesn’t mean they have to sign it. A perfect example of that is Mitch Marner, who according to his agent Darren Ferris, was presented with two different offer sheets in the summer of 2019. He wasn’t interested in signing either. Instead, he was focused on being a Maple Leaf, and that’s exactly what I’m led to believe Knies’ mindset is right now.

Long story short, all his is just noise. Carry on, and Go Leafs Go!