Dustin Wolf deserves the Calder Trophy

This season, hockey fans were spoiled when it came to the Calder Trophy race. It has been a long time since we have seen such a strong rookie class. From Lane Hutson to Macklin Celebrini to Matvei Michkov, this class has been special. However, one name to me is above all three, and that is Dustin Wolf.

In any other year, any one of these three players would likely win the trophy reserved for the league’s best rookie, but based on impact on the game and importance to the roster, this should be Dustin Wolf’s trophy to lose.

Wolf is already among the league’s best

Dustin Wolf took the league by storm once he took control of the Flames’ net. Not only was he one of the best rookies in the NHL, but he was statistically one of the best goalies in the NHL. All stats are at 5v5 and are from moneypuck.com.

Among all NHL goalies who played at least 50 games, Wolf had the fourth-best goals saved above expected at 5v5 at 18.5. The only goalies that had a higher goals saved above expected were Darcy Kuemper at 20.6, Andrei Vasilevskiy at 25.5, and Connor Hellebuyck at 35.1.

Wolf also allowed the fourth-fewest goals against in the league with 90. The only goalies above him are Bobrovsky with 86, Hellebuyck with 85, and Kuemper with 64.

On top of this, Wolf was also seventh in the league in goals against average (GAA) with 2.07, fourth in the league in GAA, better than expected with 0.42, and fourth in wins above replacement with 3.08.

Wolf is among the group of elite goaltenders in the NHL at just 24 years of age. He is already among the best in the league at his position, which is an argument that is harder to make for the other rookies in this class.

Most important position

NHL teams live and die by goaltending. It’s one of the reasons that a number one elite goaltender is arguably the most sought-after position in the league year after year for many teams—just ask the Edmonton Oilers. Wolf plays in the most important position on the team, which no other rookie in the Calder race does.

Goaltenders are a team’s last line of defence in defending their net and giving the team a chance to win. This is a much more difficult task when the goaltender is behind a defence that is not performing at a strong level. This is the case for the Flames. Although they have allowed the fifth-fewest goals against per game at 5v5 with 1.7, it is not due to their defensive structure. It is largely due to Dustin Wolf.

The Flames were among the league’s worst at goal scoring, so each goal that they allowed meant that much more, as it was a tough task for the team to generate any sort of offence. Additionally, the Flames were in the middle of the pack in expected goals against per game with 2.02. Sure, it’s good that Calgary wasn’t among the worst in the league in this stat, but it means the team was just average at defending against other teams.

So, how were the Flames among the top five teams in the league in allowing the least amount of goals with just an average defence? Answer: Dustin Wolf.

Night after night, Wolf seemed to put his team on his back and carry the team to have a chance to win. To put it in numerical terms, at 5v5, Wolf had a goals saved above expected of 18.5. Meaning that if an average goalie were in the net for the Flames, the team would have allowed almost 19 more goals this season than they did.

Flames surprised the league

Many fans and media outlets had seen the Calgary Flames as one of the bottom five to 10 teams in the league. Many thought the playoffs were not going to be obtainable and that a lottery pick was destined for the franchise. Fast forward seven months, and the Flames surprised the league and were fighting for a playoff spot.

Credit to the players for fighting through the adversity and proving haters wrong, but most of this credit is due to Dustin Wolf. As stated above, he carried the team and bailed them out all season long through his performance in the net. He carried an average defence and one of the league’s worst offences to a meaningful game 81 in which they were so close to claiming a playoff spot.

One could argue that Lane Hutson had a similar impact on the Montreal Canadiens, as they made the playoffs, whereas the Flames did not. To that point, I say that Hutson didn’t carry his team the way Wolf did. Not to take credit away from Hutson, as he had a phenomenal rookie campaign and will be a star for many, many years in the league. But the Canadiens were not looked at as a bottom-five to 10 team in the league before the season started, and the Flames finished with more points this season than the Canadiens.

There is no rookie in the league who had as heavy and influential of an impact on his team as Dustin Wolf did. As just a rookie, he is already the best player on his team.

Unprecedented rookie class

The rookie class this season has impressed beyond expectations. I can’t remember the last time a Calder race was this competitive. In any other year, the stats that Celebrini, Hutson, and Michkov put up would all likely have them winning a Calder Trophy. Who knows, maybe one of them will still win it. However, if I had a vote, Dustin Wolf would be first on my ballot. No matter who wins this trophy, one thing is for certain: all four of these players are special talents and will have amazing careers.