Edmonton Oilers alternate history: Dwayne Roloson and Chris Pronger’s change of fate

The Oilers face the Minnesota Wild in Round 1. Edmonton dispatches the Wild in five games, before getting the Vancouver Canucks in Round 2. The Oilers defeat the Canucks in six games and advance to face the Detroit Red Wings in the Conference Final.

However, Detroit gains a measure of revenge for their six-game loss in 2006, beating the Oilers in a seven-game heavyweight fight to win the West. Around Edmonton, there’s some disappointment about not making it back to the Final, due to the potential of an all-Canadian Finals match-up with Ottawa, but it’s muted. It’s another strong playoff run, all signs point to them being back.

The 2007–08 draft and season

At the 2007 draft, a few major things change. The Oilers had picks six and 15 in real life, but considering we just made the Western Conference Final, we won’t have six (no Sam Gagner), and 15 came from the Smyth trade, so we don’t have that either.

We do have the 21st overall selection however, which we’ll use to take Max Pacioretty one pick earlier than his actual selection at 22. We’ll still take shootout legend Linus Omark in Round 2, and then rest of the draft goes in order.

We do make one other big offseason move, signing Dustin Penner to a similar contract the Oilers offered in real life. We’ve let Sykora walk, so our wing depth takes a temporary hit, but Penner is the perfect replacement. It’s a key injection of youth for an aging roster. At the very least, we ensure Brian Burke and Kevin Lowe almost fight in a barn in every reality. We also get two more young additions as Andrew Cogliano makes his Oilers debut this season, and we make the same in-season trade to get Curtis Glencross from Columbus. Pronger continues his strong play, but he’s taken a bit of a step back. He’s still a minute muncher and dominating presence, but the wall that all physical defenceman hit eventually is coming sooner, not later.

The alternate 2007–08 Oilers look like this:

Edmonton once again makes the playoffs, albeit as the fifth seed. They face the Anaheim Ducks in Round 1, and defeat them in six games. However, Edmonton is upset by San Jose in Round 2, losing the series in six games. There are some concerns about the age of the Oilers roster, but it’s generally agreed they’ll have one more kick at the can with this group, especially after the Penner signing.

The 2008–09 draft and season

At the 2009 draft, we another big ripple effect, as we don’t have the 22nd pick from Anaheim that became Jordan Eberle. Instead, Edmonton’s got the 12th pick (The Oilers traded this pick to Los Angeles in real life for other picks, a deal we won’t be making), so we make our big selection. We take Erik Karlsson three spots ahead of his actual selection at 15th overall. Any other pick of consequence the Oilers had in real life was from the Pronger trade, which we didn’t make, so the rest of the draft goes in order.

We make some tough decisions in the offseason, moving Jason Smith to Columbus for a package involving young defenceman Jan Hejda. We also continue to ride the backup goalie carousel, letting Garon walk in free agency and promoting prospect Jeff Deslauriers.

Hopes are high to begin the season, but the Oilers have a tough year. The age of the roster, and Roloson specifically is starting to show, and neither him or Deslauriers can hold down the net for long. The forward core has trouble scoring, Pronger misses some time due to injury, and by the deadline, Edmonton finds themselves looking outside the playoff picture. Rather than making big swings to save the season, we go the other way.

The decision is made to re-tool. We come to an agreement with New Jersey over a Pronger trade. His value is still very high, so it won’t be cheap for the Devils to get him. In the end, we send Chris Pronger to the Garden State for Travis Zajac, Johnny Oduya, the Devils first rounder in 2009, and a fourth rounder in 2010. The post-deadline Oilers look like this:

The Oilers play a bit better down the stretch, but still fail to make the postseason. However, they got big value for Pronger and have some more prospects coming, so it’ll be more of a re-tool than a rebuild in Edmonton.

The 2009–10 draft and season

Thanks to their good stretch run, the Oilers get the 17th overall pick in the 2009 draft, which we use on Chris Krieder two spots of his eventual 19th overall selection. New Jersey’s pick ends up being #23, and we use it to take Marcus Johansson. In the second round, there’s no one better to select, so we’ll still take Anton Lander.

We also make some more offseason decisions, letting the old guard of Roloson, Stoll, and Staios walk in free agency. Devan Dubnyk finally makes his debut and wins the starting job from Deslauriers early in the season. Pacioretty breaks out as a scoring talent and Zajac stabilizes our 2C spot, but the defence breaks more than it bends and Dubnyk can’t be Superman every game.

A truly bad February leads the Oilers into the edge of the Western Conference basement, and although they right the ship somewhat, they once again miss the playoffs. There are signs of life in the lineup, specifically from Karlsson who shows major flashes.

These alternate 2009-10 Oilers look like this:

The 2010–11 draft and season

The Oilers get the 12th overall pick, in the 2010 draft, which we use to select Cam Fowler. With New Jersey’s fourth rounder we got from the Pronger deal, I’m going to bend my own rules and reach nine spots down to take Zach Hyman, because everyone loves Zach Hyman.

The rest of the offseason comes and goes without too much fuss, we move on from Hejda to promote Greene and Fowler. The Oilers are looking for improvement throughout the lineup rather than from free agency. Edmonton has another “bad but fun” year, with the team losing more than they win, but the kids appear to be making a difference. Karlsson takes a step and becomes the fulltime 2RD, and Dubnyk has another solid year as starter.

The Oilers miss the playoffs again, but it’s looking like Edmonton has the pieces for a solid future with Karlsson, Pacioretty, Fowler, and Dubnyk.

The alternate 2010–11 Oilers look like this:

Would this have been a better reality for the Oilers? I believe so. The 2006 team wasn’t built to contend so much as it was designed for a couple great seasons. Even if Pronger stayed, the Oilers would have had to retool sooner rather than later. However, they do get a sixth Stanley Cup out of it, as well as the haul we got from New Jersey because they don’t need to deal Pronger in a panic.

They miss out on the high-end talent of Taylor Hall, Jordan Eberle, and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, but the roster is much more balanced. Karlsson is a franchise defenceman, Fowler is a solid #2, Pacioretty and eventually Kreider will hold down the wings. Maybe these Oilers eventually make a 2017 Ottawa style run with Karlsson quarterbacking and Dubnyk playing the Craig Anderson role. Ultimately, it’s just one possible reality. If only Roloson hadn’t have gotten hurt…