Fantasy Hockey 2025-26 – Beebs Bondy’s ADPs to Avoid

Draft season is all about finding value, but just as important is avoiding landmines. Every year, a handful of players get pushed up draft boards by hype, name value, or recency bias, leaving fantasy managers paying a premium that doesn’t match the likely return.

In this series, our five Fantasy Hockey analysts highlight their ADPs to Avoid for the 2025-26 season. These players are coming off the board too soon relative to their expected production, team situation, or just better players going later than them.

That doesn’t mean these players are “bad.” Some will still have strong seasons, but at their current cost, they pose more risk than reward. The goal is to help you maximize value by steering clear of inflated price tags and focusing on players who are better fits where they’re being drafted.

MORE ADPs to Avoid:

• Brock Seguin’s ADPs to Avoid
• Dylan Berthiaume’s ADPs to Avoid
• Matt Larkin’s ADPs to Avoid
• Nick Szeman’s ADPs to Avoid

Ilya Sorokin | New York Islanders | G | ADP: 59.1

Ilya Sorokin is the seventh goalie going off draft boards despite failing to finish top-10 in any of the three major goaltending statistical categories last season. The 30-year-old closed out a disappointing 2024-25 campaign 10th in wins (30), 20th in SV% (.907), and 25th in GAA (2.71) while also appearing in the 4th most amount of games (61). The Islanders’ offense made little to no improvements in the offseason to help Sorokin, despite finishing 28th in the NHL in goals for (222) in 2024-25. Adding the loss of top defensemen Noah Dobson in a trade to Montreal, Sorokin’s trajectory begins to look even worse for what lies ahead. With New York projecting for yet another lottery pick in 2025-26, the sweet price of Sorokin late-50s pick as your first goalie off the board is far too dangerous a risk to ever justify. Goaltenders are mostly a product of their environment, and after starting 70+% of the Islanders’ games in the last four seasons, this is a losing environment I want nothing to do with. There are far better options that do not hold the risk of destroying your goalie stats on a nightly basis, going much later in fantasy drafts.  

Juraj Slafkovsky | Montreal Canadiens | LW/RW | ADP: 100.0

If anyone knows what Juraj Slafkovsky has accomplished in his short career to earn a top 100 selection in fantasy drafts, please let me know. Slafkovsky is entering his fourth NHL season and has yet to surpass 20 goals, 51 points, or 152 SOG in a season. The 21-year-old former first-overall pick’s value comes from his ability to throw the body, apparent ceiling, and spot on Montreal’s first power-play, but even those are far from a guarantee. Finishing last season with only 10 power-play points, Patrik Laine is waiting in the wings on Montreal’s second unit alongside his 15 PPG and 19 PPP from last season, looking to pounce on his top line role. After finishing 2024-25 ranked 163rd in goals, 121st in points, and 206th in SOG, Slafkovsky still has a lot to prove to justify that sweet ADP. Even his top-line role with Nick Suzuki may be less secure than in previous years after Montreal traded top defensive prospect Logan Mailloux for 19-goal sophomore Zack Bolduc in the offseason. Slafkovsky’s appeal is clearly in banger leagues, where he finished 33rd in hits last season with 194, but even with those numbers, a top-100 pick is hard to justify when he will be an anchor for all other counting stats. He will not be a draft winner for your team, but he certainly can be a season loser if you take the risk at this point.

Tom Wilson | Washington Capitals | RW | ADP: 111.8

Tom Wilson seemed to get every bounce in 2024-25, shooting 6.8% above his career average with a career-high 18:44 TOI/GP to achieve career numbers in almost every statistical category.  After 12 NHL seasons, the right-winger will need continued luck in 2025-26 to hold his ADP value, even in banger leagues, where he finished 15th in the NHL in hits (233) alongside his 33 goals and 65 points. In non-bangers, he is barely worth a sniff. If Wilson returns anywhere closer to the 15-goal, 33-goal, 116 SOG average he has shown throughout his suspension-filled career, he will be borderline droppable even in the heaviest of hit leagues. The 30-year-old’s best chance of retaining anywhere close to last season’s value (besides hits) comes with his first power-play unit usage, a special teams role which he adopted for the first time in 2024-25 and closed out with 11 PPG. Washington’s brass of rising young stars like Ryan Leonard, Aliaksei Protas, and Connor McMichael will also be looking to claim the coveted top power play spot, with Washington leaning heavily on Alex Ovechkin and their top unit for the last decade. The veteran is being selected around much safer talent with massive ceilings whose floors are equivalent to Wilson’s career year last season. Even if you find yourself in desperate need of help in the hits category, there are much cheaper solutions at the end of your draft.

Matt Duchene | Dallas Stars | C/RW | ADP: 125.3

Matt Duchene’s 30-goal, 82-point season from 2024-25 may seem enticing when looking at the veteran winger in the middle round of your drafts, but when you realize it came on an abysmal 152 SOG, we only begin to draw the red flags entering this season. Shooting 19.7% last season (6.1% higher than his 16-year career average), Duchene surpassed the 30-goal plateau for the first time in three years and 80 points for only the 2nd time in his 16-year career. The veteran winger appears more likely to return to the mid-20 goal, 68-point averages we’ve seen in his previous three campaigns this season. Dallas’ lineup depth will work against Duchene’s fantasy value yet again this year, as it is hard to imagine the 34-year-old averaging more than the 17:09 TOI/GP he saw in 2024-25 under Pete DeBoer. With superstar Jason Robertson currently outside Dallas’ top power-play unit, a lingering concern that he may replace Duchene if the Stars decide to revert to similar power-play units from previous seasons. We have even seen the veteran run lines on Dallas’ third line at points. The ceiling does not justify the floor for a player that is being drafted around plenty of top talent that is averaging 2-3 more minutes and 1-2 more SOG a game. Duchene’s career has been great, but entering his age-35 season on a stacked Dallas roster, I am staying away.

Morgan Geekie | Boston Bruins| C/LW/RW | 163.7 ADP

Morgan Geekie needed an outrageous 22.0 shooting percentage on 150 shots on goal to close out 2024-25 with 33 goals and 57 points (92nd in NHL). The seventh-year pro brings worry beyond his lack of shooting, as he is one lineup change from new Head Coach Marco Sturm away from losing linemate David Pastrnak, thus ending his fantasy value across the board. Geekie has never shown an exceptional ability to score, only surpassing last season’s goal totals once in his entire hockey career, documented all the way back to 2011-12 and his AAA days with Yellowhead. The 27-year-old finds himself a key piece (for now) in the middle of a Boston lineup with limited fantasy potential after it finished 28th in the NHL in goals (222) and 29th in PP% (15.2%). I would rather use my late picks on potential stars or secured lineup pieces who shoot the puck, meaning Geekie is a target I will be letting slip by in the later rounds of my draft.