Fantasy Hockey 2025-26 – Matt Larkin’s ADPs to Avoid

Draft season is all about finding value, but just as important is avoiding landmines. Every year, a handful of players get pushed up draft boards by hype, name value, or recency bias, leaving fantasy managers paying a premium that doesn’t match the likely return.

In this series, our five Fantasy Hockey analysts highlight their ADPs to Avoid for the 2025-26 season. These players are coming off the board too soon relative to their expected production, team situation, or just better players going later than them.

That doesn’t mean these players are “bad.” Some will still have strong seasons, but at their current cost, they pose more risk than reward. The goal is to help you maximize value by steering clear of inflated price tags and focusing on players who are better fits where they’re being drafted.

MORE ADPs to Avoid:

• Brock Seguin’s ADPs to Avoid
• Beebs Bondy’s ADPs to Avoid
• Dylan Berthiaume’s ADPs to Avoid
• Nick Szeman’s ADPs to Avoid

Dougie Hamilton | New Jersey Devils| D | ADP: 72.3

Jack Hughes told me last week he wants to see his brother Luke Hughes on PP1 all season in New Jersey. Jack isn’t the coach, but he’s not without influence and wouldn’t be pulling the idea out of nowhere. Luke is maturing into the Devils’ most important offensive defenseman. On top of Luke being an ascendant talent, Hamilton’s role has been scaled back as the Devils try to load-manage him. His 19:51 of average ice time last season was his lowest in six years. He’s also 32 and has missed at least 18 games due to injury in three of his past four seasons. Hamilton is still a productive fantasy D-man, but he carries so much downside at that ADP. 

Alexander Nikishin | Carolina Hurricanes | D | ADP: 103.4

I thought Nikishin’s ADP was a glitch when I saw it. And I say that as someone super high on him long-term. He’s one of the better all-around defense prospects in the sport, and he’s one of the best KHL defensemen ever, seriously. But he has yet to play a regular-season game in the NHL, he dressed for just four playoff games last spring, and he’s likely ticketed for middle-pair work in his rookie season. The PP1 blueline seat belongs to fellow lefthanded shooter Shayne Gostisbehere until further notice. So where is the hype coming from? Why is Nikishin being drafted ahead of defensemen in the safe 50-point tier? At this ADP, you need him to hit his rookie ceiling or even blow through it. When we consider that even something along the lines of 30 points, strong banger-category contributions and 18 minutes of ice time per game would constitute a great rookie campaign: Nikishin should be a late-round flier, not a foundational pick for your redraft team.

Pyotr Kochetkov | Carolina Hurricanes | G | ADP: 106.4

I backed the Kochetkov sleeper train for several seasons. But he’s had so many opportunities to permanently seize the role as Carolina’s starter and simply can’t pull away from Frederik Andersen. Playing on an elite defensive club, Kochetkov has a .905 career save percentage across 116 NHL games, including an .897 last season. The goals above expected per 60 suggest Kochetkov was better than his surface stats in 2024-25, fair, but what does it tell you that Andersen started 13 playoff games compared to two for Kochetkov? The Canes still consider Andersen the 1A when all things are equal and both goalies are healthy. It’s therefore crazy to me that Kochetkov is going off the board as the No. 18 netminder in Yahoo drafts right now ahead of projected workhorses Sam Montembeault and Lukas Dostal. What has Kochetkov done to earn that status?

Neal Pionk | Winnipeg Jets | D | ADP: 124.4

Oops. Drafters are pretty clearly paying for a career year. Pionk was somewhat of a revelation for Winnipeg and for fantasy GMs last season, picking up 10 goals and 39 points in just 69 games while chipping in hefty hit and block totals. But the goals came with a shooting percentage of 8.1 when he entered last season at 3.8 percent across 467 career contests. Pionk also doesn’t play on Winnipeg’s top power-play unit. He fluked into his numbers last season. He’s still a useful depth defenseman in deeper leagues because he contributes to multiple categories, but it’s silly that he’s being drafted ahead of safe stalwarts such as Devon Toews and mega-upside rookies Zeev Buium and Zayne Parekh.

Aliaksei Protas | Washington Capitals | RW | ADP: 142.0

Pretty much every Washington Capital had a career year in 2024-25. The entire operation feels unsustainable. The hulking Protas broke out massively last season with 30 goals and 66 points in 76 games, with a nifty plus-40 mark helping those in plus-minus fantasy leagues. But he converted his shots at a hilarious 21.1 percent. He’s not a power-play guy – not even PP2. Among 378 forwards who logged at least 500 5-on-5 minutes last season, Protas placed 29^th in goals per 60 – yet he sat 168^th in shots per 60, 97^th in individual scoring chances per 60 and 104^th in individual expected goals per 60. He’s a great real-life player but doesn’t generate enough offensive looks to maintain that scoring pace from last season given his shooting luck should regress.

Sean Monahan | Columbus Blue Jackets | C | ADP: 146.0

Monahan was an amazing story last season. Playing with a heavy heart after the passing of his great friend and teammate Johnny Gaudreau, Monahan led a resurgent Columbus team, producing north of a point per game for just the second time in his 12-season career. Here’s a case for which we tip our cap, congratulate him on his Masterton Trophy and let someone else draft him. We all know Monahan’s injury history at this point. Even in his comeback last season, he missed 28 games. He’s exceeded 65 games once in his past five seasons. He has more mileage than your typical 30-year-old. Drafters are currently taking him before the likes of Mark Stone, Logan Cooley, Bo Horvat and Mason McTavish. Can I join these leagues, please?